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By: Alex Carrick on July 9th, 2020

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2020’s H1 Nonresidential Construction Starts Down by Nearly a Quarter

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $37.6 billion (green shaded box, Table 4 below), an increase of 10.5% versus May’s figure of $34.1 billion (originally reported as $32.1 billion).

2020’s H1 Nonresidential Construction Starts Down by Nearly a Quarter Graphic

This year’s June compared with last year’s June, though, was -26.8%. And year-to-date starts through the first half of 2019 have been -22.9% (a drop of nearly a quarter) relative to January-June of 2019. 

Due to the onset of the coronavirus health crisis in the spring of this year, the normal seasonality in construction starts has been almost absent. Last year, nonresidential starts in the second quarter were slightly more than 50% higher than in the first quarter. This year, Q2 has seen a nonresidential dollar volume increase of just 11% compared with Q1.

Also, this year to date has not seen the depth of mega project activity (i.e., projects valued at $1 billion or more each) realized last year. For example, June 2019 starts featured three mega projects (a natural gas pipeline in Texas; a wind power project in Wyoming; and a Microsoft campus expansion in Washington state) that summed to $7.1 billion. June 2020 starts included a single mega project (a rapid transit project in Seattle – see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - June 2020) for $1.4 billion.

 
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‘Shelter at home’ directives meant wide-ranging negative implications for economic and construction activity beginning in late March and extending through mid-June. Recent state and city reopenings, however, do point to better news concerning construction starts from now on provided further COVID-19 incursions don’t necessitate extreme retrenching.  

Through the first half of 2020, industrial (-77% year to date) and commercial (-31%) starts have fallen into deeper pits than institutional (-13%) and heavy engineering/civil (-8%). Decisions concerning most industrial and commercial groundbreakings are made by the private sector. Much (but by no means all) of institutional and engineering work is determined by the public sector. Government capital spending, geared towards fulfilling social needs, is relatively more stable.  

Construction Manages Second Lowest Y/Y Jobs Loss

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and as set out in Graph 1, no major U.S.  industrial subsector has escaped being touched by the pandemic’s jobs-reduction wand. Some, though, have skipped away with minimal discomfort. First among these has been ‘financial activities,’ where staffing in June was down by only -1.4% year over year. Stock market indices have been performing admirably, with occasional new record highs being set.

Construction activity, which was judged essential and, therefore, allowed to continue nearly everywhere in April-May, even as most other segments of the economy were closing shop or relocating into private residences, has sustained employment surprisingly well. The percentage-change loss of total jobs in the sector was just -4.4% year over year in June, second lowest among all industries.

Graph 1: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − June 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − June  2020 (based on seasonally adjusted  payroll data) Chart
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction’s Unemployment Rate Eases to 10.1%

The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate economy-wide in America in June was 11.1%. (Seasonally adjusted, it was 11.2%.) Construction, at 10.1% NSA in June, beat the 11.1% figure. Construction’s worst unemployment rate in these difficult times was 16.6% in April. A year ago, in June 2019, construction’s NSA unemployment rate was 4.0%.

The sector suffering the most is ‘leisure and hospitality.’ Year-over-year employment at hotels and motels and in restaurants and bars is -27.1% year over year. The unemployment rate in the sector is 28.9% NSA (but know that in April, it peaked at 39.3%). It’s no shock that hotel/motel construction starts to date this year are -44.6% compared with January-June 2019. The weakness in the accommodation and food services sector explains why part-time jobs have been devastated more than full-time jobs in this current (and hopefully brief) recession and why young adults have been subjected to an inordinately large share of the layoffs.

Graph 2: U.S. Construction Unemployment Rate
(not seasonally adjusted - NSA)

U.S. Construction Unemployment Rate
(not seasonally adjusted - NSA) Chart
Current through June, 2020.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction the Only Sector With a Jobs Claw-Back Rate over 50%

Table 1 highlights the degree to which employment in each sector has rebounded after ‘taking it on the chin’ in April-May. The methodology compares two gaps in jobs levels ‒ June-versus-February’s deficit (since February was the last ‘normal’ month before COVID came calling) divided by April-versus-February’s deficit (the ‘Big Drop’). Subtracting the resulting ratio from one yields a ‘claw-back’ figure.  

Total jobs are now -14.6 million whereas they were -20.5 million in the ‘Big Drop’. The shortfall is still 71.2% (-14.6/-20.5 = 71.2%), meaning the claw-back percentage is 28.6% (1.000-0.712). 

Among industrial subsectors, construction has clawed back the largest proportion of its earlier jobs loss, 51.6%. Whereas construction’s jobs deficit in April was -975,000, it is now only -472,000. And the percentage change decline in the sector has shifted from -12.8% to -6.2%.

The economy won’t truly return to great health until the total jobs claw-back reaches 100%.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ June 2020

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ June 2020 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Engineering Starts Have Been Most Tenacious

June 2020’s month to month (m/m) increase in total nonresidential construction starts of +10.5% was broadly-based, with commercial at +28.3%; institutional, +23.0%; and heavy engineering/civil, +9.9%. Industrial, though, fell on the rocks, -91.7%.

The -26.8% performance of June 2020 versus June 2019 (y/y) total nonresidential starts resulted from declines in all four major type-of-structure categories. Striking the sourest note was industrial, -81.7%, followed by commercial, -46.5%; institutional, -26.1%; and engineering, -11.6%.

Year-to-date total nonresidential starts (-22.9%) in the latest month also offered slim pickings as every major subcategory was in deficit: industrial, -77.3%; commercial, -31.3%; institutional, -13.1%; and engineering, -7.8%.

3 Subcategories With Across the Board Gains: Roads, Military, & Laboratories

Year to date, the two subcategories of construction types accounting for the largest dollar volumes have been ‘schools/colleges’ ($37.4 billion) and ‘roads/highways’ ($34.6 billion). Far back, in third position, has been ‘water/sewage’ ($15.6 billion).

Year to date, ‘schools/colleges’ have claimed a 62% share of institutional work and ‘roads/highways’, a 41% share of engineering.

June’s educational facility starts were +36.7% m/m, but -19.7% y/y and -15.4% ytd. Street starts, though, were uniformly positive: +6.5% m/m; +7.5% y/y; and +2.6% ytd.

Among all subcategories of construction, only two others were on the plus side across the board in June: ‘military’ (+29.7% m/m; +76.4% y/y; and +171.3% ytd) and ‘laboratories’ (+114.3% m/m; +78.0% y/y; and +11.0% ytd).

Appearing under engineering, as well, ‘water/sewage’ starts have faltered only slightly (+29.9% m/m and +16.5% y/y, but -0.7% ytd). ‘Bridge’ starts have been +45.4% m/m and +18.4% y/y, but -23.5% ytd. And ‘miscellaneous civil’ (pipelines, rapid transit, etc.) has a record of -18.2% m/m, -52.7% y/y and -16.4% ytd.  

Through first half 2020, ‘private office buildings’ and ‘warehouses’ have been competing for largest share of commercial starts, at 23% and 22% respectively. The former in the latest month was +117.7% m/m, but -68.7% y/y and -33.9 ytd. The latter was +14.6% m/m, but -16.2% y/y and -2.7% ytd.  

Within institutional, combining the three subcategories ‘hospital/clinic,’ ‘nursing/assisted living,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical’ provides a ‘health care facility’ summation that has been -19.7% m/m, -55.5% y/y and -33.6% ytd.

Trend Graphs Begin to Capture Lost Momentum

Most of the 12-month moving-average trend graphs (Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - June 2020) continue to derive momentum from pre-coronavirus activity levels. Only during the latest three months (out of 12 months) has COVID-19 emphatically asserted its negative presence. Nevertheless, almost all the curves have been turning down lately. There are three notable outliers. ‘Retail’ has been descending for years. And ‘roads/highways’ and ‘water/sewage’ are showing no ill effects whatsoever, so far.   

Compensation Rates Vault Higher, but Not for Construction

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on non-farm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and non-supervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

In what follows, keep in mind that the recent employment devastation has particularly sideswiped lower-paying jobs. Therefore, average compensation rates for jobs remaining have risen. Also, for many ‘essential’ workers, there have been bonuses and hazard pay.

From Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel) ‘all-jobs’ earnings y/y in June were +5.0% hourly and +5.3% weekly. Construction workers were left in the dust, at +2.9% hourly and +1.8% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding bosses), the ‘all jobs’ pay increases were +5.4% hourly and +6.4% weekly. Construction workers received +3.0% hourly and +2.2% weekly.

3 PPI Construction Costing Series ‒ 1 Advance; 2 Retreats

At the time of writing, June’s PPI results are not yet available. Consequently, the following is a repeat of what appeared in last month’s Industry Snapshot. May 2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ -1.8% (more negative than April’s -1.1%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ -3.2% (less negative than April’s -4.0%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +2.5% (smaller than April’s +2.8%).

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

‘Grand Total’ Starts -19.3% Ytd

From Table 4 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in June were +11.6% m/m, -23.4% y/y and -12.7% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were +1.3% m/m, -41.6% y/y and -25.0% ytd. Single-family starts were +15.2% m/m, -15.4% y/y, and -7.1% ytd. Combining residential and nonresidential, ‘Grand Total’ construction starts in June 2020 were +10.9% m/m, -25.6% y/y and -19.3% ytd.

ConstructConnect has moved to a better-targeted and research-assigned ‘start’ date. (Prior to January 2017, the ‘start’ date was recorded as occurring within 30 to 60 days of the announced bid date.) In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - June 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - June 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - June 2020.

TABLE 2: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
JUNE 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-JUN 20 Jan-JUN 20 vs    JUN 20 vs   JUN 20 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-JUN 19   JUN 19   MAY 20
             
Hotel/Motel 6.450 -44.6%   -73.7%   -2.0%
Retail 6.202 -34.6%   -45.1%   4.1%
Parking Garage 0.972 -46.5%   -57.2%   -23.8%
Amusement 3.222 -6.0%   -33.8%   51.3%
Private Office  10.914 -33.9%   -68.7%   117.7%
Government Office 4.939 -0.6%   -19.9%   9.2%
Laboratory 1.114 11.0%   78.0%   114.3%
Warehouse 10.732 -2.7%   -16.2%   14.6%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 3.545 -65.1%   27.3%   53.9%
COMMERCIAL 48.091 -31.3%   -46.5%   28.3%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 6.121 -77.3%   -81.7%   -91.7%
             
Religious 0.766 -24.6%   -62.6%   -41.0%
Hospital/Clinic 5.553 -28.0%   -57.2%   6.2%
Nursing/Assisted Living 3.132 -41.8%   -36.7%   -17.6%
Library/Museum 2.414 28.1%   -16.8%   43.6%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 3.457 13.2%   -25.2%   8.5%
Military 4.730 171.3%   76.4%   29.7%
School/College 37.393 -15.4%   -19.7%   36.7%
Miscellaneous Government 3.337 -33.3%   -63.2%   -47.8%
INSTITUTIONAL 60.783 -13.1%   -26.1%   23.0%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 2.719 -21.6%   -22.4%   25.7%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 117.714 -30.9%   -36.3%   11.0%
             
Airport 2.594 -22.0%   44.0%   57.6%
Road/Highway 34.602 2.6%   7.5%   6.5%
Bridge 13.399 -23.5%   18.4%   45.4%
Dam/Marine 4.151 -8.0%   -36.9%   0.5%
Water/Sewage 15.556 -0.7%   16.5%   29.9%
Miscellaneous Civil 13.654 -16.4%   -52.7%   -18.2%
HEAVY ENGINEERING 83.957 -7.8%   -11.6%   9.9%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 201.671 -22.9%   -26.8%   10.5%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 3: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – JUNE 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Jun 20 Jan-Jun 20 vs     Jun 20 vs Jun 20 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Jun 19     Jun 19 May 20
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     83.957 -7.8%     -11.6% 9.9%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 117.714 -30.9%     -36.3% 11.0%
RESIDENTIAL   123.432 -12.7%     -23.4% 11.6%
GRAND TOTAL   325.103 -19.3%     -25.6% 10.9%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 2.594 -22.0%     44.0% 57.6%
    All Other Civil 11.607 14.8%     -5.9% -12.3%
    Bridges 13.399 -23.5%     18.4% 45.4%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 4.151 -8.0%     -36.9% 0.5%
    Power Infrastructure 2.047 -67.0%     -93.2% -54.6%
    Roads 34.602 2.6%     7.5% 6.5%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 15.556 -0.7%     16.5% 29.9%
CIVIL     83.957 -7.8%     -11.6% 9.9%
    Offices (private) 10.914 -33.9%     -68.7% 117.7%
    Parking Garages 0.972 -46.5%     -57.2% -23.8%
    Transportation Terminals 1.238 -80.8%     54.9% -17.4%
  Commercial (small subset) 13.124 -47.0%     -64.4% 60.9%
    Amusement 3.222 -6.0%     -33.8% 51.3%
    Libraries / Museums 2.414 28.1%     -16.8% 43.6%
    Religious 0.766 -24.6%     -62.6% -41.0%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 2.307 -37.8%     16.0% 191.7%
  Community 8.710 -13.2%     -22.9% 59.4%
    College / University 8.900 -17.4%     8.5% 55.9%
    Elementary / Pre School 12.096 -7.3%     4.1% 32.9%
    Jr / Sr High School 15.433 -20.2%     -44.1% 26.4%
    Special / Vocational 0.965 -6.8%     98.8% 135.7%
  Educational 37.393 -15.4%     -19.7% 36.7%
    Courthouses 0.886 80.0%     34.7% -16.1%
    Fire and Police Stations 1.536 -8.0%     -55.1% -9.7%
    Government Offices 4.939 -0.6%     -19.9% 9.2%
    Prisons 1.036 16.1%     41.5% 45.7%
  Government 8.397 4.7%     -21.8% 9.0%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 1.114 11.0%     78.0% 114.3%
    Manufacturing 6.121 -77.3%     -81.7% -91.7%
    Warehouses 10.732 -2.7%     -16.2% 14.6%
  Industrial 17.967 -53.9%     -32.6% -42.4%
    Hospitals / Clinics 5.553 -28.0%     -57.2% 6.2%
    Medical Misc. 3.337 -33.3%     -63.2% -47.8%
    Nursing Homes 3.132 -41.8%     -36.7% -17.6%
  Medical   12.022 -33.6%     -55.5% -19.7%
  Military   4.730 171.3%     76.4% 29.7%
    Hotels 6.450 -44.6%     -73.7% -2.0%
    Retail Misc. 2.719 -21.6%     -22.4% 25.7%
    Shopping 6.202 -34.6%     -45.1% 4.1%
  Retail   15.371 -37.5%     -54.4% 6.9%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 117.714 -30.9%     -36.3% 11.0%
    Multi-Family 33.030 -25.0%     -41.6% 1.3%
    Single-Family 90.402 -7.1%     -15.4% 15.2%
RESIDENTIAL   123.432 -12.7%     -23.4% 11.6%
NONRESIDENTIAL 201.671 -22.9%     -26.8% 10.5%
GRAND TOTAL   325.103 -19.3%     -25.6% 10.9%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 4: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – JUNE 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-jun JAN-jun
  apr 20 may 20 jun 20 apr 20 may 20 jun 20 apr 20 may 20 jun 20 2019 2020
                       
Single Family 13.426 13.318 15.340 15.494 14.456 14.028 16.535 16.219 15.987 97.344 90.402
   month-over-month % change -19.2% -0.8% 15.2% -3.8% -6.7% -3.0% -2.3% -1.9% -1.4%    
   year-over-year % change -26.1% -22.2% -15.4% -1.1% -15.6% -21.2% 0.4% 0.1% -0.9% -8.3% -7.1%
Apartment 4.493 4.610 4.669 5.542 5.129 4.591 7.641 7.556 7.279 44.037 33.030
   month-over-month % change -28.5% 2.6% 1.3% -13.7% -7.4% -10.5% -3.8% -1.1% -3.7%    
   year-over-year % change -44.5% -18.1% -41.6% -29.2% -28.2% -36.6% -4.0% -2.9% -5.5% -3.8% -25.0%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 17.918 17.928 20.009 21.035 19.586 18.618 24.176 23.775 23.266 141.380 123.432
   month-over-month % change -21.8% 0.1% 11.6% -6.6% -6.9% -4.9% -2.8% -1.7% -2.1%    
   year-over-year % change -31.8% -21.2% -23.4% -10.5% -19.3% -25.7% -1.0% -0.8% -2.4% -7.0% -12.7%
Hotel/Motel 0.998 0.503 0.493 1.324 0.867 0.665 1.728 1.629 1.514 11.641 6.450
   month-over-month % change -9.4% -49.5% -2.0% -10.8% -34.5% -23.4% -4.3% -5.7% -7.1%    
   year-over-year % change -48.3% -70.3% -73.7% -38.9% -59.6% -63.7% -23.0% -14.8% -21.4% -21.3% -44.6%
Retail 1.171 0.939 0.977 1.072 1.129 1.029 1.224 1.163 1.096 9.484 6.202
   month-over-month % change -8.2% -19.9% 4.1% 3.2% 5.3% -8.8% -2.4% -4.9% -5.8%    
   year-over-year % change -23.2% -43.6% -45.1% -31.7% -25.9% -37.9% -16.4% -20.5% -26.8% -3.4% -34.6%
Parking Garages 0.071 0.190 0.145 0.096 0.134 0.135 0.225 0.209 0.193 1.815 0.972
   month-over-month % change -49.6% 166.2% -23.8% -49.1% 39.9% 0.8% -8.3% -6.9% -7.7%    
   year-over-year % change -77.4% -49.6% -57.2% -63.3% -61.8% -60.6% -15.6% -19.0% -29.3% 28.7% -46.5%
Amusement 0.623 0.321 0.486 0.571 0.511 0.477 0.646 0.630 0.609 3.428 3.222
   month-over-month % change 5.8% -48.4% 51.3% -4.4% -10.5% -6.7% 0.2% -2.4% -3.3%    
   year-over-year % change 2.4% -36.7% -33.8% 6.5% -10.2% -22.7% -4.4% -4.0% -5.1% -19.8% -6.0%
Office 1.707 0.668 1.454 2.005 1.127 1.276 2.905 2.798 2.532 16.516 10.914
   month-over-month % change 69.5% -60.9% 117.7% -15.1% -43.8% 13.2% -4.2% -3.7% -9.5%    
   year-over-year % change -47.4% -65.8% -68.7% -31.5% -65.2% -61.1% 21.7% 15.4% -6.6% 18.9% -33.9%
Governmental Offices 0.909 0.783 0.856 0.869 0.908 0.849 0.992 0.982 0.964 4.968 4.939
   month-over-month % change -11.7% -13.9% 9.2% 9.0% 4.4% -6.4% -0.3% -1.0% -1.8%    
   year-over-year % change -3.6% -12.9% -19.9% 14.1% 7.7% -12.5% 6.8% 6.7% 4.8% 0.5% -0.6%
Laboratories 0.070 0.087 0.186 0.135 0.115 0.114 0.205 0.195 0.202 1.004 1.114
   month-over-month % change -62.8% 24.0% 114.3% -47.6% -14.9% -0.7% -4.8% -4.6% 3.5%    
   year-over-year % change -64.1% -56.7% 78.0% -18.8% -45.1% -31.4% -16.0% -14.2% -7.5% -22.4% 11.0%
Warehouse 2.035 1.626 1.862 1.475 1.649 1.841 1.850 1.852 1.822 11.027 10.732
   month-over-month % change 58.3% -20.1% 14.6% -15.0% 11.8% 11.7% -4.4% 0.1% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -33.2% 1.6% -16.2% -23.5% -18.3% -19.6% -2.8% 2.7% -1.8% 4.8% -2.7%
Misc Commercial 0.462 0.423 0.651 0.573 0.517 0.512 1.523 1.144 1.155 10.144 3.545
   month-over-month % change -30.4% -8.5% 53.9% -14.4% -9.8% -0.9% -1.7% -24.9% 1.0%    
   year-over-year % change -40.1% -91.5% 27.3% -38.3% -78.3% -75.5% 46.4% -16.9% -7.0% 34.9% -65.1%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 8.047 5.540 7.110 8.120 6.956 6.899 11.296 10.602 10.087 70.029 48.091
   month-over-month % change 10.5% -31.2% 28.3% -11.1% -14.3% -0.8% -3.2% -6.1% -4.9%    
   year-over-year % change -36.0% -60.1% -46.5% -27.8% -47.6% -47.9% 1.3% -4.0% -10.6% 2.3% -31.3%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 0.567 2.153 0.179 0.880 1.121 0.967 3.695 2.825 2.758 26.981 6.121
   month-over-month % change -11.6% 279.6% -91.7% -18.0% 27.3% -13.7% -3.1% -23.6% -2.4%    
   year-over-year % change -71.7% -82.9% -81.7% -74.2% -83.2% -81.4% 1.5% -23.2% -22.9% 35.7% -77.3%
Religious 0.052 0.132 0.078 0.141 0.148 0.087 0.154 0.149 0.138 1.016 0.766
   month-over-month % change -80.0% 153.7% -41.0% -16.3% 5.5% -41.1% -4.8% -3.3% -7.3%    
   year-over-year % change -64.4% -31.9% -62.6% 3.1% -10.9% -52.3% -14.8% -16.3% -19.1% -11.9% -24.6%
Hosptials/Clinics 0.691 0.780 0.828 0.936 0.703 0.766 1.670 1.641 1.548 7.710 5.553
   month-over-month % change 8.1% 12.9% 6.2% -13.7% -24.8% 9.0% -0.6% -1.7% -5.6%    
   year-over-year % change -15.4% -30.7% -57.2% -10.2% -40.2% -40.7% 31.4% 31.2% 19.0% -14.1% -28.0%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.595 0.473 0.390 0.500 0.526 0.486 0.675 0.635 0.617 5.382 3.132
   month-over-month % change 16.8% -20.5% -17.6% -10.5% 5.2% -7.6% -3.1% -5.8% -3.0%    
   year-over-year % change -30.6% -49.8% -36.7% -44.7% -44.5% -39.7% -24.6% -28.4% -28.3% -5.2% -41.8%
Libraries/Museums 0.269 0.205 0.295 0.398 0.221 0.256 0.411 0.384 0.379 1.884 2.414
   month-over-month % change 43.3% -23.8% 43.6% -27.4% -44.5% 16.1% -1.0% -6.4% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change -16.1% -60.5% -16.8% 51.0% -45.2% -35.6% 59.3% 45.5% 39.3% 38.1% 28.1%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.523 0.422 0.458 0.549 0.545 0.468 0.638 0.624 0.611 3.053 3.457
   month-over-month % change -24.2% -19.4% 8.5% -19.8% -0.8% -14.2% -0.3% -2.1% -2.1%    
   year-over-year % change -3.7% -27.5% -25.2% 23.1% 1.4% -19.2% -3.5% -4.2% -4.4% -12.4% 13.2%
Military 1.974 0.488 0.633 0.990 1.051 1.031 0.639 0.656 0.679 1.744 4.730
   month-over-month % change 185.4% -75.3% 29.7% 81.5% 6.2% -1.9% 29.5% 2.7% 3.5%    
   year-over-year % change 766.2% 75.6% 76.4% 257.7% 236.8% 257.9% 42.6% 57.4% 62.9% -11.6% 171.3%
Schools/Colleges 5.828 6.751 9.227 5.623 6.518 7.269 6.099 5.945 5.757 44.191 37.393
   month-over-month % change -16.4% 15.9% 36.7% 8.2% 15.9% 11.5% -3.1% -2.5% -3.2%    
   year-over-year % change -28.6% -21.5% -19.7% -9.6% -14.6% -22.8% -0.6% -4.7% -9.3% 11.8% -15.4%
Misc Government 0.522 0.751 0.392 0.537 0.650 0.555 0.722 0.697 0.640 5.003 3.337
   month-over-month % change -22.7% 43.7% -47.8% -3.6% 20.9% -14.6% -4.6% -3.5% -8.1%    
   year-over-year % change -44.7% -29.1% -63.2% -12.5% -25.6% -45.8% -18.1% -21.5% -25.4% -15.8% -33.3%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 10.454 10.002 12.300 9.673 10.362 10.919 11.007 10.732 10.371 69.983 60.783
   month-over-month % change -1.6% -4.3% 23.0% 3.5% 7.1% 5.4% -1.2% -2.5% -3.4%    
   year-over-year % change -13.0% -24.8% -26.1% -2.3% -14.0% -21.9% 2.6% -0.4% -4.6% 2.8% -13.1%
Misc Non Residential 0.407 0.379 0.477 0.433 0.413 0.421 0.602 0.584 0.572 3.466 2.719
   month-over-month % change -10.0% -6.9% 25.7% -10.7% -4.5% 1.9% -3.6% -3.0% -2.0%    
   year-over-year % change -40.1% -36.5% -22.4% -28.7% -32.3% -33.2% 0.9% -2.5% -1.6% -6.3% -21.6%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 19.475 18.074 20.066 19.106 18.852 19.205 26.599 24.742 23.788 170.459 117.714
   month-over-month % change 2.5% -7.2% 11.0% -4.6% -1.3% 1.9% -2.4% -7.0% -3.9%    
   year-over-year % change -28.6% -55.2% -36.3% -24.1% -42.2% -41.9% 1.8% -5.2% -9.6% 6.5% -30.9%
Airports 0.308 0.540 0.851 0.343 0.461 0.566 0.542 0.530 0.552 3.327 2.594
   month-over-month % change -42.5% 75.2% 57.6% 15.0% 34.6% 22.7% -3.4% -2.1% 4.1%    
   year-over-year % change -42.9% -20.5% 44.0% -33.9% -9.8% -6.1% -1.4% -5.6% -4.3% -9.4% -22.0%
Roads/Highways 7.685 6.749 7.189 5.618 6.630 7.208 5.519 5.469 5.511 33.729 34.602
   month-over-month % change 40.9% -12.2% 6.5% 29.9% 18.0% 8.7% 0.9% -0.9% 0.8%    
   year-over-year % change 8.0% -8.2% 7.5% 5.4% 0.9% 2.2% 6.5% 4.0% 3.7% 1.5% 2.6%
Bridges 1.724 1.861 2.706 2.206 2.186 2.097 2.155 2.122 2.157 17.509 13.399
   month-over-month % change -42.0% 7.9% 45.4% -6.9% -0.9% -4.1% -15.9% -1.5% 1.7%    
   year-over-year % change -73.9% -17.6% 18.4% -38.4% -37.7% -43.6% -8.7% -11.4% -10.0% 37.2% -23.5%
Dams/Marine 0.807 0.693 0.697 0.601 0.732 0.732 0.829 0.715 0.681 4.514 4.151
   month-over-month % change 15.9% -14.1% 0.5% -7.7% 21.7% 0.0% 4.6% -13.7% -4.7%    
   year-over-year % change 119.7% -66.4% -36.9% 85.6% -18.6% -37.8% 54.3% 9.1% -4.6% 74.3% -8.0%
Water/Sewage 2.974 2.302 2.989 2.732 2.818 2.755 2.619 2.568 2.603 15.673 15.556
   month-over-month % change -6.5% -22.6% 29.9% 12.4% 3.2% -2.2% -1.2% -1.9% 1.4%    
   year-over-year % change -11.4% -20.9% 16.5% 9.8% 2.3% -6.4% 5.9% 6.9% 7.9% -4.2% -0.7%
Misc Civil 1.200 3.843 3.145 1.266 2.220 2.729 3.957 3.917 3.625 16.324 13.654
   month-over-month % change -25.8% 220.3% -18.2% -30.5% 75.4% 22.9% -1.1% -1.0% -7.5%    
   year-over-year % change -31.4% -11.0% -52.7% -17.7% -16.5% -35.6% 126.1% 97.6% 58.8% -22.5% -16.4%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 14.698 15.987 17.577 12.766 15.048 16.087 15.621 15.322 15.129 91.076 83.957
   month-over-month % change 1.7% 8.8% 9.9% 7.3% 17.9% 6.9% -2.6% -1.9% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change -25.5% -18.3% -11.6% -7.4% -11.0% -18.5% 21.5% 15.6% 10.4% 1.6% -7.8%
GRAND TOTAL 52.092 51.990 57.651 52.907 53.485 53.911 66.396 63.839 62.183 402.915 325.103
   month-over-month % change -7.6% -0.2% 10.9% -2.8% 1.1% 0.8% -2.6% -3.9% -2.6%    
   year-over-year % change -28.9% -37.1% -25.6% -15.3% -27.5% -30.7% 4.7% 0.8% -2.6% 0.3% -19.3%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 34.174 34.062 37.643 31.872 33.899 35.293 42.220 40.064 38.917 261.535 201.671
   month-over-month % change 2.1% -0.3% 10.5% -0.2% 6.4% 4.1% -2.5% -5.1% -2.9%    
   year-over-year % change -27.3% -43.2% -26.8% -18.2% -31.5% -33.1% 8.3% 1.8% -2.7% 4.7% -22.9%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 5: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-jun 2019   JAN-jun 2020   % Change
           
Connecticut $3,191,782,512   $1,911,130,912   -40.1%
Maine $987,247,035   $864,597,328   -12.4%
Massachusetts $6,695,195,799   $4,257,977,179   -36.4%
New Hampshire $883,096,181   $465,285,440   -47.3%
Rhode Island $531,424,037   $393,227,423   -26.0%
Vermont $233,288,381   $382,429,309   63.9%
Total New England $12,522,033,945   $8,274,647,591   -33.9%
New Jersey $3,656,351,908   $3,620,801,324   -1.0%
New York $11,999,247,967   $10,673,137,279   -11.1%
Pennsylvania $9,280,996,632   $5,182,619,580   -44.2%
Total Middle Atlantic $24,936,596,507   $19,476,558,183   -21.9%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $37,458,630,452   $27,751,205,774   -25.9%
Illinois $7,586,974,607   $7,927,951,052   4.5%
Indiana $4,147,093,158   $4,207,605,066   1.5%
Michigan $4,389,443,168   $3,817,314,235   -13.0%
Ohio $7,849,185,135   $5,855,104,310   -25.4%
Wisconsin $5,878,506,605   $4,785,054,352   -18.6%
Total East North Central $29,851,202,673   $26,593,029,015   -10.9%
Iowa $2,894,076,408   $3,173,905,221   9.7%
Kansas $2,969,986,990   $1,743,837,232   -41.3%
Minnesota $6,653,503,043   $4,333,700,710   -34.9%
Missouri $3,445,683,220   $6,048,583,217   75.5%
Nebraska $2,286,485,831   $2,665,062,394   16.6%
North Dakota $1,170,485,283   $1,090,498,017   -6.8%
South Dakota $1,149,270,478   $799,752,442   -30.4%
Total West North Central $20,569,491,253   $19,855,339,233   -3.5%
TOTAL MIDWEST $50,420,693,926   $46,448,368,248   -7.9%
Delaware $712,617,195   $527,555,158   -26.0%
District of Columbia $1,073,272,530   $451,721,684   -57.9%
Florida $15,134,358,440   $11,439,110,972   -24.4%
Georgia $10,501,405,708   $5,404,749,997   -48.5%
Maryland $4,172,619,504   $3,771,382,012   -9.6%
North Carolina $7,103,298,075   $5,335,766,361   -24.9%
South Carolina $3,801,437,432   $2,658,707,083   -30.1%
Virginia $8,748,770,615   $5,612,927,637   -35.8%
West Virginia $895,521,480   $1,528,850,984   70.7%
Total South Atlantic $52,143,300,979   $36,730,771,888   -29.6%
Alabama $5,995,387,631   $2,739,295,230   -54.3%
Kentucky $3,588,036,309   $1,616,454,812   -54.9%
Mississippi $1,446,378,697   $1,671,750,401   15.6%
Tennessee $4,275,621,180   $3,972,192,484   -7.1%
Total East South Central $15,305,423,817   $9,999,692,927   -34.7%
Arkansas $1,440,994,963   $2,059,076,739   42.9%
Louisiana $2,058,840,040   $2,195,588,608   6.6%
Oklahoma $2,911,608,327   $1,972,570,041   -32.3%
Texas $42,598,519,436   $23,218,069,389   -45.5%
Total West South Central $49,009,962,766   $29,445,304,777   -39.9%
TOTAL SOUTH $116,458,687,562   $76,175,769,592   -34.6%
Arizona $4,650,745,249   $4,352,769,967   -6.4%
Colorado $5,249,114,724   $3,753,456,792   -28.5%
Idaho $1,262,320,034   $770,449,988   -39.0%
Montana $725,901,973   $786,759,865   8.4%
Nevada $3,206,889,910   $2,204,648,598   -31.3%
New Mexico $776,793,231   $1,339,128,393   72.4%
Utah $2,880,266,336   $4,114,250,239   42.8%
Wyoming $3,623,043,886   $595,389,006   -83.6%
Total Mountain $22,375,075,343   $17,916,852,848   -19.9%
Alaska $546,034,168   $550,163,682   0.8%
California $20,175,462,374   $19,476,895,344   -3.5%
Hawaii $1,353,680,846   $786,777,322   -41.9%
Oregon $2,798,914,438   $2,295,435,862   -18.0%
Washington $9,948,087,363   $10,269,510,533   3.2%
Total Pacific $34,822,179,189   $33,378,782,743   -4.1%
TOTAL WEST $57,197,254,532   $51,295,635,591   -10.3%
TOTAL U.S. $261,535,266,472   $201,670,979,205   -22.9%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

About Alex Carrick

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

     
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