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By: Alex Carrick, Chief Economist on January 17th, 2022

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December’s Nonresidential Construction Starts -17% M/M, +7% Y/Y, & -1% YTD

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

A Less Than Impressive Megaproject Revival

ConstructConnect announced today that December 2021's volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $25.8 billion (see shaded green box, bottom of Table 10), a decrease of -16.8% compared with November 2021's level of $31.0 billion (originally reported as $30.4 billion).

2021 12 10 US Industry Snapshot November 2021 (1)

Compared with December 2020, the latest month’s nonresidential starts were +7.0%. On a year-to-date basis, they were -0.5%. GRAND TOTAL starts in December 2021 (i.e., including residential activity) were -16.7% m/m and -1.2% y/y, but +5.9% ytd.

industry-snapshot-December-2021
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Click here to download the complete Construction Industry Snapshot Package - December 2021 PDF.

The latest month featured one mega-sized project, San Diego’s International Airport terminal replacement valued at $3.4 billion.

Since December results wrap up the year, there’s an annual mega project story to be told. (A project is categorized as ‘mega’ when it carries an estimated cost of $1 billion or more.)

In 2019, there were 35 megaproject starts for a total of $79.1 billion. In the first pandemic year of 2020, however, there was a big drop off in mega work, with only 12 such projects receiving go-aheads, for a total of $21.0 billion. There was a recovery in ultra-large job activity in 2021, but at 16 projects for a combined $32.4 billion, it was relatively minor.

To provide more historical context, in 2018 there were 20 mega projects for $47.2 billion, and in 2017, 25 such undertakings for a summed $54.9 billion.

Nonresidential Building Starts Awaken in Late 2021

There are three major subcategories of total starts: residential, nonresidential building, and heavy engineering/civil. Beyond the midway point of 2021, and on a year-to-date basis, residential starts were strong, engineering starts were flat; and nonresidential building starts, weak.

On a month-to-month basis in December, all three major sub-categories experienced significant starts declines: engineering, -26.0%; residential, -16.7%; and nonresidential buildings, -11.0%.

Trailing 12-Month Starts Trend Higher

Other statistics often beloved by analysts are trailing twelve-month (TTM) results and these are set out for all the various type-of-structure categories in Table 10.

Grand Total TTM starts in December on a month-to-month basis were -0.1%, which was a match for November, also -0.1%. At least the -0.1% in each of the latest two months wasn’t as negative as October’s -0.6%.

On a year-over-year basis in December, GT TTM starts were +5.9%, an improvement on November’s figure of +4.1%. In turn, the +4.1% in November was a step up from October’s +3.4%. The steady quickening in those latest percentage changes speaks of a construction marketplace with growing vitality.

50-50 Split in Census Bureau’s PIP Numbers

‘Starts’ compile the total estimated dollar value and square footage of all projects on which ground is broken in any given month. They lead, by nine months to as much as two years, put-in-place (PIP) statistics which are analogous to work-in-progress payments as the building of structures proceeds to completion.

PIP numbers cover the ‘universe’ of construction, new plus all manner of renovation activity, with residential traditionally making up two-fifths (about 40%) of the total and nonresidential, three-fifths (i.e., the bigger portion, at around 60%). Presently, though, according to the Census Bureau’s November 2021 not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) PIP numbers for the total United States, the year-to-date mix has shifted dramatically. The residential to nonresidential relationship has become approximately half and half (i.e., 49.4%-to-50.6% respectively). The Census Bureau’s November 2021 NSA ytd PIP results are +7.9% for total; +23.4%, residential; and -3.8%, nonresidential (i.e., nonresidential buildings plus engineering).

PIP numbers, being more spread out, have smaller peak-over-trough percent-change amplitudes than the ‘starts’ series. As an additional valuable service for clients and powered by its extensive ‘starts’ database, ConstructConnect, in partnership with Oxford Economics, a world-leader in econometric modeling, has developed put-in-place construction statistics by types of structure for U.S. states, cities, and counties, ‘actuals’ and forecasts. ConstructConnect’s PIP numbers are being released quarterly and are featured in a separate reporting system.

Construction Jobs +160,000 in Full Year 2021

The U.S. construction sector’s total employment increase in 2021 was +160,000 jobs. In 2020, there had been a staffing cutback of -157,000 jobs. In the three ‘normal’ years prior to COVID, construction net hiring was +141,000 in 2019; +312,000 in 2018; and +286,000 in 2017.

Of the +160,000 annual construction jobs gain in 2021, the final four months of the year combined to provide +135,000 net new positions. After October’s +44,000 figure, though, the month-to-month change softened somewhat, to +35,000 in November and +22,000 in December. Construction’s NSA unemployment rate in December was 5.0%, a slight setback from November’s 4.7%, but a vast improvement on December 2020’s 9.6%. The latest economywide NSA U rate is 3.7%. (The SA U rate, usually termed the ‘headline’ rate, is presently 3.9%.)

Total U.S. employment ended 2021 +4.5% y/y, with construction as a subset of ‘all jobs’ at +2.2% y/y. Other corners of the economy with close ties to the building sector saw the following December 2021 year-over-year changes in the number of jobs: machinery and equipment rental and leasing, +7.0%; architectural and engineering services, +5.5%; real estate firms, +4.0%; oil and gas extraction, +3.9%; cement and concrete product manufacturing, -0.3%; and building material and supplies dealers, -3.8%.

The +3.9% y/y jobs gain in energy extraction is thanks to the upward price momentum that has spurred renewed investor interest. And the stellar +5.5% y/y jump for employment with project design firms bodes well for eventual sitework resulting from the lead-lag relationship.

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Pluses and Minuses Among the Type of Structure Subcategories

December’s -16.8% month-to-month (m/m) decrease in total nonresidential starts was forced by big declines in industrial (-85.7%) and engineering (-26.0%) that weren’t compensated by commercial staying even (+0.6%) and institutional making a modest gain (+5.4%).

The +7.0% performance of total nonresidential starts in December of this year versus December of last year (y/y) was due to upticks in commercial (+45.7%) and institutional (+15.6%) that overcame downdrafts in industrial (-52.9%) and engineering (-13.6%).

Year-to-date (ytd) total nonresidential starts in the 12th month of 2021 were -0.5% thanks to offsetting changes in smaller-volume industrial (+41.7%) and bigger-volume institutional (-8.5%), while engineering (+0.9%) and commercial (-2.5%) didn’t move much. Ytd in December is the same as ‘full year’ or ‘annual.’

There are two dominant subcategories of total nonresidential starts. When the annual volumes of ‘roads/highways’ and ‘schools/colleges’ are added together, they accounted for nearly one-third of total nonresidential activity in 2021 (i.e., shares of 16.8% and 14.6%, summing to 31.4%).

The three percentage-change metrics for street starts in December 2021 were -28.7% m/m, but +6.3% y/y and +6.0% ytd. The key corresponding results for school starts were +2.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y, but -12.9% ytd. From Table 3, 2021 annual starts for K-12 academia (-11.1%) were a little less negative than for colleges/universities (-19.3%).

The third-largest contributor to total nonresidential starts in full-year 2021 was the ‘water/sewage’ subcategory. In December 2021, the dollar volume of ‘water/sewage’ work was -10.2% m/m and -2.7% y/y, but +9.1% ytd.

A consolidated health care sub-category of ‘hospitals/clinics,’ ‘nursing/assisted living,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical’ recorded starts in December 2021 that were: -22.8% m/m, -16.6% y/y, and -0.5% ytd. (Their combined share of 2021’s annual total nonresidential was 7.2%.)

‘Hospital/clinic’ starts on their own in the latest month were -36.7% m/m, but +42.2% y/y, and +24.3% ytd. Annual ‘nursing/assisted living’ starts were surprisingly weak, -24.2%.

Within institutional starts, ‘military’ turned in some strong percentage changes in the final month of 2021: +44.2% m/m; +354.3% y/y; and +11.3% ytd.

Interestingly, November’s government office building starts were +12.7% ytd. And miscellaneous’ commercial starts were +54.3% year to date, driven primarily by ‘transportation terminals’ at +134.9%.

Within commercial starts, the deep depressions in ‘hotel/motel’ and ‘private office’ work were confirmed with full-year 2021 results of -35.9% and -30.0% respectively. But on the upside, ‘miscellaneous commercial’ ended 2021 +114.5%, thanks mainly to ‘transportation terminals’ being +294.2%.

Warehouse starts, so bullish in 2020, were -63.2% m/m, -24.0% y/y, and -2.3% ytd in December of the year just exited.

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An Examination of ‘Not Smoothed’ JOLTS Results

For ease of viewing, the curves in Graphs 5 and 6 show ‘smoothed’ (i.e., three-month moving average) versions of the JOLTS series. On an individual monthly (i.e., not-smoothed) basis in November, the level of job openings in construction fell from 455,000 to 345,000 and the rate retreated from 5.7% to 4.4%. There was more ‘actual’ month-to-month deterioration in ‘openings’ than is readily apparent from the charted results.

While ‘openings’ stepped back more on a ‘not-smoothed’ versus ‘smoothed’ basis in the latest month (November 2021), ‘hires’ did the opposite. Not-smoothed hires in construction went from 375,000 to 423,000 as a level and from 5.0% to 5.6% as a rate.

Graph 5: U.S. Construction Job Openings (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

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Omicron Caveat’s Impact on the Trend Graphs

With the exceptions of the ongoing downward sloping curves for ‘private office buildings’ and ‘schools/colleges,’ the 12-month moving average trend graphs on page 9 are moving sideways. They’re poised for breakouts on the upside, but the Omicron caveat can’t be ignored. No one is sure how bad the current coronavirus outbreak will become, nor to what degree the overall economy may be set back.

2022 will also see entry into a year in which interest rate increases, engineered by the Federal Reserve to deal with an all-items Consumer Price Index inflation rate of +7.0% year over year, will factor into construction go-ahead decision making. There’s underlying potential buoyancy in capital spending, especially with a trillion-dollar infrastructure package being sorted out, but there are extraordinary challenges to be faced as well.

Wage Hikes Touch on +6% Y/Y

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report from the BLS, record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B-3 (including bosses), ‘all jobs’ earnings y/y in December were +4.7% both hourly and weekly. Construction workers, encompassed within ‘all jobs’, weren’t far off the mark, +4.6% hourly and +4.9% weekly. From Table B-8 (leaving out bosses), the y/y ‘all jobs’ compensation climbs were +5.8% both hourly and weekly. Construction workers fell a little short hourly, +5.3%, but exceeded the ‘standard’ weekly, +6.1%.

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Still Formidable Material Cost Pressure

December’s y/y results for three building-related BLS Producer Price Index series were as follows: (A) ‘construction materials special index,’ +34.9% (about even with November’s +34.6%); (B) ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +18.3% (down a bit from the previous month’s +19.8%); and (C) ‘final demand construction,’ designed to capture bid prices, +12.4% (ahead slightly versus November’s +12.0%).

(A) comes from a data series with a long history, but it’s confined to a limited number of major construction materials. (B) has a shorter history, but it’s more comprehensive in its coverage, although it includes some items (e.g., transportation) that aren’t strictly materials.

Concerning the cost of some major construction material inputs, as revealed in the PPI data set published by the BLS, asphalt in December was +69.5% year over year; hot rolled steel bars, plates, and structural shapes, +58.9%; aluminum sheet and strip, +31.1%; copper wire and cable, +20.7%; gypsum, also +20.7% softwood lumber, +12.6%; ready-mix concrete, +7.1%; and cement, +4.2%.

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the United States. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

December 2021’s ‘Grand Total’ Starts +5.9% YTD

From Table 10 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in December were -16.7% m/m and -8.8% y/y, but +14.5% ytd. Multi-family starts in December were -54.3% m/m and -34.4% y/y, but +8.1% ytd. Single-family starts were -1.0% m/m and -1.5% y/y, but +16.9% ytd.

Including home building with all nonresidential categories, Grand Total starts in December 2021 were -16.7% m/m and -1.2% y/y, but +5.9% ytd.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.


Expansion Index Monitors Construction Prospects 

The economy may be in recovery mode, but nonresidential work is usually a lagging player. Companies are hesitant to undertake capital spending until their personnel needs are rapidly expanding and their office square footage or plant footprints are straining capacity. Also, it helps if profits are abundant. (Today’s greater tendency to work from home has made office occupancy much more difficult to assess.)

Each month, ConstructConnect publishes information on upcoming construction projects at its Expansion Index.

The Expansion Index, for hundreds of cities in the United States and Canada, calculates the ratio, based on dollar volume, of projects in the planning stage, at present, divided by the comparable figure a year ago. The ratio moves above 1.0 when there is currently a larger dollar volume of construction ‘prospects’ than there was last year at the same time. The ratio sinks below 1.0 when the opposite is the case. The results are set out in interactive maps for both countries.


Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - December 2021 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - December 2021.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - December 2021.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
NOVEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-NOV 21 Jan-NOV 21 vs    NOV 21 vs   NOV 21 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-NOV 20   NOV 20   OCT 21
             
Hotel/Motel 6.282 -37.2%   -48.7%   -9.4%
Retail 11.844 2.4%   -11.3%   12.0%
Parking Garage 1.603 -2.1%   18.7%   -23.5%
Amusement 6.070 3.4%   -20.4%   -40.1%
Private Office  16.848 -30.4%   -56.8%   239.3%
Government Office 11.174 12.7%   26.1%   7.8%
Laboratory 2.090 1.0%   -21.7%   13.4%
Warehouse 24.166 -3.0%   -5.5%   51.6%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 10.379 54.3%   96.1%   -72.1%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 90.459 -6.7%   -23.7%   -2.3%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 29.918 43.3%   186.3%   11.6%
             
Religious 0.876 -39.5%   -62.8%   28.9%
Hospital/Clinic 15.322 21.2%   -13.8%   47.1%
Nursing/Assisted Living 5.255 -23.8%   -80.4%   -78.2%
Library/Museum 2.224 -37.7%   -42.4%   47.5%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 6.990 -5.1%   -48.2%   -19.9%
Military 8.568 -3.0%   9.7%   12.7%
School/College 55.233 -14.0%   -21.5%   1.5%
Miscellaneous Medical 5.975 -19.6%   -58.1%   -9.7%
INSTITUTIONAL 100.443 -10.6%   -26.8%   2.0%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 5.626 5.6%   -15.8%   -26.2%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 226.446 -3.9%   -15.6%   0.5%
             
Airport 4.906 -16.3%   -67.8%   -54.1%
Road/Highway 64.220 6.5%   -3.9%   1.8%
Bridge 17.045 -15.5%   48.8%   23.2%
Dam/Marine 7.532 -4.4%   90.4%   57.9%
Water/Sewage 31.785 10.2%   37.3%   -2.3%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 21.940 2.6%   -32.5%   -13.5%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 147.429 2.1%   6.5%   3.7%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 373.876 -1.6%   -8.0%   1.7%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – NOVEMBER 2021
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

 

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 8: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – NOVEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-NOV JAN-NOV
  SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 2020 2021
                       
Single Family 21.194 20.036 19.376 22.533 21.229 20.202 21.475 21.305 21.309 199.330 235.749
   month-over-month % change -5.6% -5.5% -3.3% -6.2% -5.8% -4.8% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0%    
   year-over-year % change 0.5% -9.3% 0.3% 8.5% 0.0% -3.0% 25.1% 21.3% 19.0% 8.8% 18.3%
Apartment 5.249 6.396 7.862 7.000 6.815 6.502 7.464 7.336 7.380 76.380 82.805
   month-over-month % change -40.4% 21.8% 22.9% -10.9% -2.6% -4.6% -1.7% -1.7% 0.6%    
   year-over-year % change -22.9% -19.3% 7.1% 2.2% -4.3% -11.7% -0.9% 1.1% 4.1% -15.5% 8.4%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 26.444 26.431 27.238 29.532 28.044 26.704 28.939 28.641 28.689 275.710 318.555
   month-over-month % change -15.4% 0.0% 3.1% -7.3% -5.0% -4.8% -0.4% -1.0% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change -5.2% -11.9% 2.2% 6.9% -1.1% -5.3% 17.2% 15.4% 14.8% 0.8% 15.5%
Hotel/Motel 0.654 0.583 0.528 0.569 0.547 0.588 0.583 0.581 0.540 10.002 6.282
   month-over-month % change 62.2% -10.8% -9.4% -7.3% -4.0% 7.6% 1.3% -0.4% -7.2%    
   year-over-year % change 16.1% -4.3% -48.7% -11.6% -7.2% -19.8% -54.8% -49.7% -46.3% -53.5% -37.2%
Retail 1.030 0.737 0.826 1.135 1.135 0.864 1.089 1.055 1.046 11.571 11.844
   month-over-month % change -37.2% -28.4% 12.0% -13.1% 0.1% -23.9% -0.1% -3.2% -0.8%    
   year-over-year % change -0.8% -36.1% -11.3% 5.6% 2.1% -16.9% 3.9% -1.4% 0.4% -25.7% 2.4%
Parking Garages 0.081 0.148 0.114 0.135 0.125 0.114 0.140 0.141 0.142 1.637 1.603
   month-over-month % change -43.8% 82.2% -23.5% -10.0% -7.2% -8.3% -2.8% 0.8% 1.1%    
   year-over-year % change -37.6% 10.1% 18.7% -2.4% -16.6% -4.9% -19.5% -13.2% -3.2% -46.1% -2.1%
Amusement 0.354 0.498 0.298 0.707 0.482 0.384 0.565 0.548 0.542 5.871 6.070
   month-over-month % change -40.4% 40.7% -40.1% -14.3% -31.7% -20.5% -3.1% -3.0% -1.2%    
   year-over-year % change -38.1% -29.0% -20.4% 61.2% -11.7% -30.2% 1.0% 0.0% -0.2% -15.6% 3.4%
Office 1.448 0.486 1.648 2.248 1.745 1.194 1.820 1.724 1.543 24.223 16.848
   month-over-month % change -56.1% -66.4% 239.3% 7.5% -22.4% -31.6% 0.0% -5.3% -10.5%    
   year-over-year % change 0.0% -70.3% -56.8% 4.6% -22.7% -48.1% -26.3% -25.2% -29.3% -30.0% -30.4%
Governmental Offices 0.941 0.871 0.939 1.409 1.037 0.917 0.964 0.977 0.993 9.915 11.174
   month-over-month % change -27.6% -7.5% 7.8% 3.9% -26.4% -11.6% -6.3% 1.3% 1.7%    
   year-over-year % change -45.4% 21.6% 26.1% 22.0% -6.6% -13.6% 1.5% 6.4% 11.7% -9.8% 12.7%
Laboratories 0.151 0.123 0.139 0.260 0.178 0.138 0.211 0.201 0.198 2.070 2.090
   month-over-month % change -41.4% -18.9% 13.4% -5.1% -31.7% -22.4% -3.1% -4.6% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -34.8% -48.8% -21.7% 56.6% -10.3% -36.4% 12.8% 1.1% -0.3% -1.8% 1.0%
Warehouse 2.338 1.657 2.512 2.200 2.093 2.169 2.201 2.135 2.123 24.911 24.166
   month-over-month % change 2.4% -29.1% 51.6% 3.9% -4.8% 3.6% 2.6% -3.0% -0.6%    
   year-over-year % change 39.4% -32.3% -5.5% 12.8% -3.1% -4.0% 3.7% -3.1% -5.8% 21.9% -3.0%
Misc Commercial 0.516 2.893 0.808 0.518 1.381 1.406 0.632 0.845 0.878 6.725 10.379
   month-over-month % change -29.9% 460.9% -72.1% -57.5% 166.5% 1.7% -1.4% 33.6% 3.9%    
   year-over-year % change -17.3% 746.6% 96.1% -32.3% 145.5% 206.2% -20.2% 15.6% 38.6% -65.9% 54.3%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 7.513 7.996 7.812 9.180 8.723 7.774 8.205 8.206 8.004 96.925 90.459
   month-over-month % change -29.5% 6.4% -2.3% -7.8% -5.0% -10.9% -0.5% 0.0% -2.5%    
   year-over-year % change -6.2% 0.2% -23.7% 8.2% 0.5% -11.1% -14.5% -11.7% -10.0% -28.2% -6.7%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 10.694 2.476 2.763 4.715 4.762 5.311 2.468 2.415 2.565 20.884 29.918
   month-over-month % change 857.1% -76.8% 11.6% 192.7% 1.0% 11.5% 40.5% -2.2% 6.2%    
   year-over-year % change 394.5% -20.6% 186.3% 108.2% 62.7% 155.1% 22.3% 18.7% 36.7% -61.5% 43.3%
Religious 0.049 0.042 0.055 0.084 0.083 0.049 0.102 0.095 0.088 1.448 0.876
   month-over-month % change -68.8% -14.0% 28.9% -14.6% -1.4% -41.4% -6.2% -7.0% -8.1%    
   year-over-year % change -62.1% -66.9% -62.8% -22.7% -31.8% -63.9% -23.3% -30.0% -32.6% -18.5% -39.5%
Hosptials/Clinics 1.834 1.035 1.523 1.230 1.232 1.464 1.372 1.356 1.336 12.640 15.322
   month-over-month % change 121.3% -43.5% 47.1% 20.3% 0.2% 18.8% 5.7% -1.1% -1.5%    
   year-over-year % change 94.6% -14.8% -13.8% 12.0% 9.8% 11.9% -2.2% 4.1% 8.1% -35.5% 21.2%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.455 0.539 0.118 0.486 0.524 0.371 0.534 0.527 0.487 6.894 5.255
   month-over-month % change -21.4% 18.4% -78.2% -21.3% 8.0% -29.3% -4.3% -1.3% -7.6%    
   year-over-year % change -38.6% -13.0% -80.4% -24.4% -26.9% -43.3% -17.5% -15.2% -20.5% -24.6% -23.8%
Libraries/Museums 0.202 0.095 0.141 0.244 0.163 0.146 0.217 0.214 0.205 3.569 2.224
   month-over-month % change 6.0% -52.8% 47.5% 0.5% -33.5% -10.2% 4.2% -1.3% -4.0%    
   year-over-year % change 106.5% -26.4% -42.4% 29.9% 4.9% -7.2% -39.4% -33.4% -34.8% -7.6% -37.7%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.591 0.683 0.547 0.635 0.624 0.607 0.680 0.684 0.642 7.367 6.990
   month-over-month % change -0.9% 15.5% -19.9% -13.0% -1.8% -2.7% -0.7% 0.7% -6.2%    
   year-over-year % change -8.4% 8.9% -48.2% -15.3% -17.7% -21.8% 8.2% 10.8% -2.2% 14.5% -5.1%
Military 0.856 1.058 1.192 0.677 0.841 1.035 0.730 0.737 0.746 8.829 8.568
   month-over-month % change 40.5% 23.6% 12.7% -16.0% 24.2% 23.1% -1.1% 0.9% 1.2%    
   year-over-year % change -10.3% 8.4% 9.7% -6.7% -1.5% 2.9% 1.4% 2.5% -1.2% 83.2% -3.0%
Schools/Colleges 3.924 3.365 3.415 4.984 4.430 3.568 5.034 4.957 4.879 64.223 55.233
   month-over-month % change -34.6% -14.2% 1.5% -20.4% -11.1% -19.5% -0.3% -1.5% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -4.7% -21.6% -21.5% -7.8% -6.4% -16.1% -13.8% -14.6% -15.8% -9.0% -14.0%
Misc Government 0.856 0.327 0.296 0.648 0.573 0.493 0.624 0.597 0.563 7.428 5.975
   month-over-month % change 59.3% -61.8% -9.7% 4.8% -11.4% -14.0% 4.4% -4.3% -5.7%    
   year-over-year % change 59.4% -49.4% -58.1% 0.4% -2.8% -21.8% -9.4% -10.3% -18.1% -12.8% -19.6%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 8.767 7.146 7.287 8.989 8.471 7.733 9.292 9.168 8.946 112.398 100.443
   month-over-month % change -7.7% -18.5% 2.0% -13.6% -5.8% -8.7% 0.5% -1.3% -2.4%    
   year-over-year % change 7.4% -17.2% -26.8% -6.0% -6.4% -13.3% -10.8% -10.0% -12.2% -9.9% -10.6%
Misc Non Residential 0.493 0.601 0.443 0.485 0.500 0.512 0.512 0.515 0.508 5.328 5.626
   month-over-month % change 21.2% 21.9% -26.2% 1.4% 3.3% 2.4% 0.3% 0.5% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change 4.3% 5.1% -15.8% 7.3% -2.6% -2.1% -7.2% 0.6% 5.5% -26.2% 5.6%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 27.467 18.219 18.305 23.368 22.457 21.330 20.478 20.304 20.022 235.535 226.446
   month-over-month % change 26.7% -33.7% 0.5% 4.1% -3.9% -5.0% 3.7% -0.8% -1.4%    
   year-over-year % change 46.0% -10.3% -15.6% 12.6% 6.0% 5.2% -9.3% -7.8% -6.6% -26.6% -3.9%
Airports 0.496 0.442 0.203 0.563 0.525 0.380 0.460 0.458 0.423 5.863 4.906
   month-over-month % change -22.0% -11.0% -54.1% -18.8% -6.8% -27.5% -3.5% -0.3% -7.8%    
   year-over-year % change -28.5% -4.2% -67.8% -19.5% -16.1% -36.1% -15.3% -8.6% -19.5% -15.7% -16.3%
Roads/Highways 4.808 5.059 5.147 6.355 5.338 5.005 5.651 5.647 5.629 60.320 64.220
   month-over-month % change -21.8% 5.2% 1.8% -9.5% -16.0% -6.2% 1.2% -0.1% -0.3%    
   year-over-year % change 20.0% -0.9% -3.9% 26.0% 11.8% 3.8% 7.4% 7.1% 4.4% -1.0% 6.5%
Bridges 1.234 1.314 1.618 1.328 1.270 1.389 1.572 1.592 1.636 20.170 17.045
   month-over-month % change -2.1% 6.5% 23.2% -7.2% -4.4% 9.4% 1.5% 1.3% 2.8%    
   year-over-year % change 28.1% 22.2% 48.8% -6.2% 19.9% 33.3% -20.9% -15.5% -9.9% -29.4% -15.5%
Dams/Marine 0.921 0.898 1.417 0.705 0.820 1.078 0.635 0.605 0.661 7.881 7.532
   month-over-month % change 43.3% -2.5% 57.9% 14.2% 16.3% 31.5% 7.4% -4.7% 9.3%    
   year-over-year % change 133.8% -28.4% 90.4% 21.7% 0.3% 35.3% -9.0% -15.6% -4.2% -3.3% -4.4%
Water/Sewage 2.872 2.680 2.618 3.062 2.786 2.724 2.754 2.791 2.850 28.830 31.785
   month-over-month % change 2.3% -6.7% -2.3% -4.0% -9.0% -2.3% -0.9% 1.3% 2.1%    
   year-over-year % change -9.0% 19.7% 37.3% 5.3% 3.6% 11.9% 0.6% 2.7% 6.9% 1.4% 10.2%
Misc Civil 1.284 1.304 1.127 2.398 1.455 1.238 1.986 1.985 1.940 21.384 21.940
   month-over-month % change -27.7% 1.5% -13.5% -5.5% -39.3% -14.9% 1.5% 0.0% -2.3%    
   year-over-year % change 37.1% -0.3% -32.5% 26.9% -1.4% -5.1% -27.6% -16.7% -17.5% -45.7% 2.6%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 11.615 11.696 12.132 14.411 12.194 11.814 13.058 13.079 13.140 144.448 147.429
   month-over-month % change -12.5% 0.7% 3.7% -7.0% -15.4% -3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 14.5% 2.2% 6.5% 14.9% 6.6% 7.4% -6.5% -3.0% -2.2% -16.2% 2.1%
GRAND TOTAL 65.526 56.346 57.674 67.311 62.695 59.849 62.475 62.024 61.851 655.693 692.431
   month-over-month % change -1.0% -14.0% 2.4% -3.6% -6.9% -4.5% 1.2% -0.7% -0.3%    
   year-over-year % change 15.2% -8.8% -3.5% 10.5% 2.8% 0.7% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% -14.5% 5.6%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 39.083 29.915 30.436 37.779 34.651 33.145 33.535 33.383 33.162 379.984 373.876
   month-over-month % change 11.8% -23.5% 1.7% -0.4% -8.3% -4.3% 2.6% -0.5% -0.7%    
   year-over-year % change 35.0% -5.8% -8.0% 13.5% 6.2% 6.0% -8.2% -6.0% -4.9% -23.0% -1.6%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 9: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-NOV 2020   JAN-NOV 2021   % Change
           
Connecticut $3,443,418,278   $2,675,900,575   -22.3%
Maine $1,619,244,616   $2,915,241,474   80.0%
Massachusetts $9,243,282,229   $10,602,183,441   14.7%
New Hampshire $1,018,528,086   $1,345,689,836   32.1%
Rhode Island $689,199,034   $887,476,118   28.8%
Vermont $537,625,745   $344,427,027   -35.9%
Total New England $16,551,297,988   $18,770,918,471   13.4%
New Jersey $7,014,187,551   $6,296,934,179   -10.2%
New York $18,950,590,390   $19,828,031,040   4.6%
Pennsylvania $10,898,167,057   $12,572,232,276   15.4%
Total Middle Atlantic $36,862,944,998   $38,697,197,495   5.0%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $53,414,242,986   $57,468,115,966   7.6%
Illinois $13,797,759,624   $12,098,690,231   -12.3%
Indiana $7,887,521,077   $7,706,339,606   -2.3%
Michigan $7,389,022,864   $8,189,573,647   10.8%
Ohio $13,991,492,646   $13,603,357,381   -2.8%
Wisconsin $8,653,452,747   $6,843,869,879   -20.9%
Total East North Central $51,719,248,958   $48,441,830,744   -6.3%
Iowa $4,843,293,967   $5,093,104,052   5.2%
Kansas $5,139,778,884   $3,483,556,896   -32.2%
Minnesota $8,123,598,346   $9,349,455,588   15.1%
Missouri $9,181,243,320   $7,997,379,510   -12.9%
Nebraska $4,201,984,990   $3,536,943,559   -15.8%
North Dakota $2,259,718,558   $2,036,018,580   -9.9%
South Dakota $1,216,434,316   $1,763,859,532   45.0%
Total West North Central $34,966,052,381   $33,260,317,717   -4.9%
TOTAL MIDWEST $86,685,301,339   $81,702,148,461   -5.7%
Delaware $1,567,032,135   $981,426,992   -37.4%
District of Columbia $842,295,322   $887,217,727   5.3%
Florida $21,830,931,072   $22,384,766,606   2.5%
Georgia $12,182,475,967   $10,442,717,887   -14.3%
Maryland $6,613,317,840   $5,504,140,027   -16.8%
North Carolina $10,179,247,106   $13,317,744,375   30.8%
South Carolina $5,137,401,305   $4,861,693,043   -5.4%
Virginia $10,274,673,892   $9,182,481,722   -10.6%
West Virginia $2,442,725,436   $1,126,839,679   -53.9%
Total South Atlantic $71,070,100,075   $68,689,028,058   -3.4%
Alabama $5,031,918,053   $6,141,972,837   22.1%
Kentucky $5,239,024,356   $4,804,529,687   -8.3%
Mississippi $2,989,004,051   $2,583,913,965   -13.6%
Tennessee $7,664,238,054   $8,947,044,661   16.7%
Total East South Central $20,924,184,514   $22,477,461,150   7.4%
Arkansas $4,240,780,158   $2,755,896,439   -35.0%
Louisiana $4,466,954,284   $7,729,697,332   73.0%
Oklahoma $4,104,690,146   $4,229,869,915   3.0%
Texas $48,886,071,359   $43,996,527,716   -10.0%
Total West South Central $61,698,495,947   $58,711,991,402   -4.8%
TOTAL SOUTH $153,692,780,536   $149,878,480,610   -2.5%
Arizona $7,690,440,241   $15,686,566,834   104.0%
Colorado $6,816,931,119   $6,766,572,714   -0.7%
Idaho $1,384,307,654   $1,256,598,152   -9.2%
Montana $1,508,609,310   $1,085,242,100   -28.1%
Nevada $3,411,105,442   $3,586,873,156   5.2%
New Mexico $1,937,363,683   $1,690,557,402   -12.7%
Utah $6,163,896,804   $4,705,499,235   -23.7%
Wyoming $920,614,864   $965,759,824   4.9%
Total Mountain $29,833,269,117   $35,743,669,417   19.8%
Alaska $1,364,000,394   $1,261,501,964   -7.5%
California $36,476,636,248   $33,462,305,641   -8.3%
Hawaii $1,901,226,637   $2,002,242,164   5.3%
Oregon $4,024,029,167   $4,953,626,672   23.1%
Washington $12,592,027,811   $7,403,654,373   -41.2%
Total Pacific $56,357,920,257   $49,083,330,814   -12.9%
TOTAL WEST $86,191,189,374   $84,827,000,231   -1.6%
TOTAL U.S. $379,983,514,235   $373,875,745,268   -1.6%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

About Alex Carrick, Chief Economist

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.