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By: Alex Carrick on August 21st, 2018

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Equity Price Patterns of 39 Companies with Ties to Construction

Economic News

There’s nothing complicated about today’s article. It simply examines, with the aid of the accompanying table, the latest 12-month performances of the share prices of nearly 40 well-known companies.

2018-08-21-Equity-Price-Graphic

The 39 firms have been arranged alphabetically according to their primary industrial activity. Not all sectors are represented. One obvious omission is ‘health care’. CVS and Walgreens-Boots under ‘General Retail’ will have to serve as proxies.

But there has been an attempt to capture companies with direct or indirect (i.e., through capital spending on manufacturing facilities, retail space, etc.) ties to construction.

For each company, the two right-hand, percentage-change columns compare the current share price with: (1) the latest 12-month low; and (2) the latest 12-month high.

With respect to 12-month lows, percentage changes that are 50.0% or more have been shaded lightly in gray.

With respect to 12-month highs, percentage changes that are -20.0% or more steeply negative have been shaded in red.

Percentage changes that are only off by -5.0% or less compared with their 12-month highs appear in green.

The first point to notice from the data is that almost all the latest 12-month lows occurred last year. Only nine of the 37 companies have experienced latest 12-month lows in 2018.

Furthermore, 25 of the 37 lows that occurred last year happened in August, at the beginning of the latest 12-month period.

As for latest 12-month highs, 34 out of 37 of those have occurred this year, in 2018.

This pattern of most lows occurring last year and almost all highs coming this year suggests a desirable trend of growing value in the stock markets. It should also be noted, though, that this year’s month with the most highs (12) has been January, indicating that the upward momentum in equity prices dissipated somewhat after the start of 2018.

Eight of the 37 companies – Armstrong (+55.4%); Fluor (+52.6%); ConocoPhillips (+64.2%); Valero (+71.6%); Amazon (+100.5%); Micron (+59.4%); Netflix (+90.9%); and Twitter (+104.7%) − have current share values that are 50% or greater than their latest 12-months lows. There are another three that barely miss the +50% benchmark – BestBuy (+49.2%); Costco (+49.1%); and Microsoft (also +49.1%).    

Four of the eight strongest advances have been among high-tech firms. Two companies have seen a doubling in their share values versus their latest 12-month lows, Amazon (+100.5%) and Twitter (+104.7%).

Turning to the red shaded boxes, there are 11 companies with current share prices that are down by 20.0% or more versus their latest 12-month highs. Only three of those companies are down by significantly more than -20.0% − Ford (-27.8%); Haliburton (-29.7%); and Twitter (-30.0%).

There are three companies, all in the high-tech sector, with present share prices that are both up by more than 50.0% versus their near-term lows and down by more than 20.0% versus their near-time highs – Micron, Netflix and Twitter. They’ve been on a roller-coaster ride.

The true winners at this stage of the investing cycle, however, are those companies with percentage changes that are in green boxes.

The green boxes have been reserved for share prices that are either at or close to (i.e., within -5.0% of) their latest 12-month highs. There are 11 such companies – Louisiana-Pacific (-2.8%); Armstrong (-1.5%); Sherwin-Williams (-1.3%); Best Buy (-0.4%); Costco (0.0%); ConocoPhillips (-4.3%); Amazon (-1.9%); Apple (0.0%); Microsoft (-2.9%); and Roper Technologies (-1.9%). (By way of disclaimer, ConstructConnect is a Roper Technologies’ company.)

Among those 10, three are standouts. Costco and Apple are currently at their latest 12-month highs and Best Buy has pulled back by only a fraction (-0.4%).

Table 1: Equity Prices for Selected Companies in Key Industrial Sectors -
August 17, 2018
Per cent change,
    Aug 17 2018 versus:
Latest 12-month LOW     Latest 12-month HIGH   Aug 17 2018  
(based on day's closing value)     (based on day's closing value)   (closing)   LOW HIGH
       
Design services:         
AECOM Technology Corp (ACM)                      30.47  Aug 21 17                           39.62  Jan 29 18                         32.91   8.0% -16.9%
Aecon Group (ARE.TO)                      14.34  Jun 5 & 6 18                           20.00  Jan 4 18                         17.45   21.7% -12.8%
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC.TO)                      51.52  Aug 21 17                           60.82  Jun 1 3 18                         53.72   4.3% -11.7%
Stantec Inc. (STN)                      24.20  Mar 27 18                           29.20  Feb 1 18                         25.55   5.6% -12.5%
       
Construction on-site:         
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)                   113.60  Aug 21 17                        170.89  Jun 22 18                       139.34   22.7% -18.5%
Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX)                      23.45  Aug 23 17                           31.06  Apr 17 18                         30.19   28.7% -2.8%
Pulte Group Inc. (PHM)                      24.91  Aug 24 17                           35.15  Jan 22 18                         28.09   12.8% -20.1%
United Rentals Inc. (URI)                   107.26  Aug 25 17                        189.40  Mar 9 18                       150.51   40.3% -20.5%
       
Construction retail:        
Armstrong World Industries (AWI)                      45.05  Aug 23 17                           71.05  Aug 6 18                         70.00   55.4% -1.5%
Home Depot (HD)                   147.49  Aug 18 17                        207.23  Jan 26 18                       195.56   32.6% -5.6%
Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW)                      72.61  Aug 24 17                        107.40  Jan 26 18                         97.98   34.9% -8.8%
Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW)                   328.97  Aug 18 17                        449.03  Jul 26 18                       443.39   34.8% -1.3%
           
General retail:        
Best Buy (BBY)                      52.59  Sep 20 17                           78.78  May 17 18                         78.48   49.2% -0.4%
Canadian Tire (CTC-A.TO)                   145.02  Sep 5 17                        182.40  Aug 8 18                       165.77   14.3% -9.1%
Costco (COST)                   151.33  Aug 24 17                        225.68  Aug 17 18                       225.68   49.1% 0.0%
CVS Caremark (CVS)                      60.60  Mar 27 18                           83.63  Jan 29 18                         73.68   21.6% -11.9%
Walgreens Boots (WBA)                      59.70  Jun 28 18                           82.74  Sep 12 17                         69.99   17.2% -15.4%
Walmart (WMT)                      78.03  Aug 28 17                        109.55  Jan 29 18                         97.85   25.4% -10.7%
       
Motor vehicle:        
Ford (F)                        9.45  Aug 15 18                           13.23  Jan 12 18                           9.55   1.1% -27.8%
General Motors (GM)                      34.83  Aug 18 17                           46.48  Oct 24 17                         36.38   4.5% -21.7%
Magna (MGA)                      46.10  Aug 18 17                           66.68  May  21 18                         54.61   18.5% -18.1%
Tesla (TSLA)                   252.48  Apr 2 18                        385.00  Sep  18 17                       305.50   21.0% -20.6%
           
Oilfield services:        
Fluor Corp. (FLR)                      37.23  Aug 21 17                           61.61  Jan 29 18                         56.82   52.6% -7.8%
Halliburton Co. (HAL)                       38.66  Aug 22 17                           56.83  Jan 23 18                         39.97   3.4% -29.7%
Schlumberger (SLB)                      61.31  Nov 16 17                           79.79  Jan 22 18                         62.83   2.5% -21.3%
       
Oil and gas companies:         
ConocoPhillips (COP)                      42.50  Aug 21 17                           72.90  Aug 7 18                         69.77   64.2% -4.3%
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)                      72.81  Mar 28 18                           89.07  Feb 1 18                         78.26   7.5% -12.1%
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)                      64.70  Aug 21 17                        124.44  Jun 4 18                       111.00   71.6% -10.8%
           
High-tech firms:         
Alphabet/Google (GOOG)                   913.81  Aug 28 17                     1,268.33  Jul 26 18                   1,200.96   31.4% -5.3%
Amazon (AMZN)                   938.60  Sep 26 17                     1,919.65  Aug 14 18                   1,882.22   100.5% -1.9%
Apple Inc. (AAPL)                   150.55  Sep 25 17                        217.58  Aug 17 18                       217.58   44.5% 0.0%
Facebook (FB)                   152.22  Mar 27 18                        217.50  Jul 26 18                       173.80   14.2% -20.1%
IBM (IBM)                   137.48  Jun 27 18                        169.12  Jan 18 18                        146.06   6.2% -13.6%
Intel Corp. (INTC)                      34.65  Aug 22 & 28 17                           57.08  May 29 18                         47.10   35.9% -17.5%
Micron Technologies (MU)                      29.56  Aug 21 17                           62.62  May 29 18                         47.11   59.4% -24.8%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)                      72.15  Aug 21 17                        110.83  Jul 25 18                       107.58   49.1% -2.9%
Netflix (NFLX)                   165.95  Aug 25 17                        418.97  Jul 9 18                       316.78   90.9% -24.4%
Roper Technologies (ROP)                   227.79  Aug 21 17                        303.58  Jul 26 18                       297.88   30.8% -1.9%
Twitter (TWTR)                      15.99  Aug 18 17                           46.76  Jun 14 18                         32.73   104.7% -30.0%
 
Up by 50% or more from LOW   
Down by 20% or more from HIGH    
Within 5% of their 12-month HIGHS  
Data source: Yahoo and MSN Money.
Table: ConstructConnect.