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By: Alex Carrick on March 6th, 2017

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Total Educational Construction Starts, All States and Provinces

Economic News

The previous report set out ConstructConnect’s construction starts for all U.S. states according to ‘lower’ and ‘higher’ education. The former refers to elementary and secondary schools while the latter has colleges and universities in its fold.

2017-03-06-Total-Education-Graphic

It was pointed out that for Canada, the history of starts contains only ‘total educational’ work, without making the separation. It’s a pleasure to report that from January 2017 on, the distinction will be made in the data base, but for now one must make do with the summary numbers.

In this article, there will be an examination of total educational starts, 2010 to 2015 averages and 2016 standalone numbers, for all the states and regions in America and most of the provinces in Canada, with those in the Atlantic combined in a single region.    

The accompanying table shows that during the six years from 2010 to 2015, the average annual level of total educational starts in the U.S. was $53.0 billion USD. The average annual percentage increase in the dollar volume was +2.3%.

In the most recent year, 2016, the value of total educational starts in the U.S. was $64.7 billion USD, which was a gain over 2015 of +9.7%. 2016, relative to the prior half dozen years, was clearly a good time to be involved in America’s school-building business.

The same three states sat at the top of the rankings for dollar-volume educational starts both on average from 2010 to 2015 and in 2016: (1) Texas; (2) California; and (3) New York. It’s not a coincidence that those also happen to be large population states – although it should be noted that Florida, which is always included among the four biggest states based on resident counts, placed much further down the rankings for educational starts in 2010-2015 and in 2016.

Florida was twelfth for dollar volume on average between 2010 and 2015 and ninth in 2016.

Illinois was fourth, Pennsylvania fifth, Massachusetts sixth and Ohio seventh for dollar volume in the 2010 to 2015 period.  

Georgia was fourth, North Carolina fifth, Ohio sixth and Massachusetts seventh for total educational starts levels in 2016.

As for percentage changes from year to year, the regional pattern of increase was fairly smooth from 2010 to 2015. The Midwest was best with an average annual climb of +4.9%, but the West was only a small step behind, at +4.7%.

Nor did the Northeast, at +2.4%, have any reason to be embarrassed. Only the South (+0.5%) failed to make much forward progress.
But the South scored big in 2016, with a +21.2% performance in year-over-year value of total educational starts. The West placed second last year, at +16.1%.

The Midwest (-2.6% year over year) and Northeast (-5.3% year over year) scraped their fingernails on a blackboard.

In Canada, the dollar volume of total educational starts averaged $3.8 billion CAD per year between 2010 and 2015. The per annum percentage change during that stretch of time for the country as a whole was an impressive +9.1%.

But over the past two years, many of the provinces – faced with weakness in their raw materials sectors – have reined in their spending and the ripple effects have been widespread and nasty.

The dollar volume of Canada’s total educational starts in 2016 was -33.3% compared with 2015, a stunning one-third drop.

The western provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta led the race in 2016 to see who could tighten their belts the most in the educational capital-spending area. 

Table 1: ConstructConnect's Total Educational Construction Starts
United States ($ volumes are in billions USD)
Annual Average Average Y/Y    
$ Volume  % Change    
Previous 6 Years Previous 6 Years     2016 2016 versus 
(2010 to 2015) (2010 to 2015)     $ Volume  2015 (Y/Y)
   
Connecticut $1.055 19.1%     $0.655 -46.5%
Maine $0.129 -1.1%     $0.167 50.2%
Massachusetts $1.815 7.2%     $1.915 -1.0%
New Hampshire $0.167 25.7%     $0.350 45.6%
Rhode Island $0.168 52.5%     $0.184 -48.1%
Vermont $0.073 34.2%     $0.059 -63.7%
Total New England $3.408   5.9%     $3.330   -17.3%
New Jersey $1.272 9.2%     $1.652 0.0%
New York $4.358 6.3%     $4.425 3.4%
Pennsylvania $1.915 0.6%     $1.850 -4.3%
Total Middle Atlantic $7.546   2.6%     $7.926   0.8%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $10.953   2.4%     $11.256   -5.3%
Illinois $1.974 4.6%     $1.745 -27.9%
Indiana $0.783 0.5%     $1.124 35.9%
Michigan $1.343 5.3%     $1.404 -11.3%
Ohio $1.784 3.7%     $1.960 11.7%
Wisconsin $0.713 0.8%     $0.813 -5.7%
Total East North Central $6.596   2.7%     $7.045   -5.4%
Iowa $0.761 5.5%     $0.894 34.0%
Kansas $0.673 14.3%     $0.878 -20.7%
Minnesota $0.808 17.1%     $1.395 14.1%
Missouri $0.941 16.2%     $1.158 9.1%
Nebraska $0.392 21.7%     $0.742 19.5%
North Dakota $0.253 48.0%     $0.175 -49.6%
South Dakota $0.218 8.2%     $0.107 -57.6%
Total West North Central $4.047   10.9%     $5.349   1.3%
TOTAL MIDWEST $10.644   4.9%     $12.394   -2.6%
Delaware $0.158 11.7%     $0.150 33.2%
District of Columbia $0.274 48.4%     $0.064 -48.7%
Florida $1.324 -5.6%     $1.819 42.0%
Georgia $1.508 -3.8%     $2.288 57.5%
Maryland $1.200 2.8%     $1.506 38.8%
North Carolina $1.321 6.1%     $2.095 32.2%
South Carolina $0.854 6.7%     $0.834 -18.0%
Virginia $1.417 -3.4%     $1.503 35.9%
West Virginia $0.338 12.6%     $0.146 -37.1%
Total South Atlantic $8.394   -1.5%     $10.405   30.1%
Alabama $0.773 2.6%     $0.911 8.3%
Kentucky $0.732 8.2%     $1.154 28.9%
Mississippi $0.335 9.6%     $0.433 -11.9%
Tennessee $0.873 11.9%     $0.833 -27.2%
Total East South Central $2.714   5.7%     $3.332   -1.3%
Arkansas $0.597 -2.8%     $0.504 -1.4%
Louisiana $0.747 6.3%     $0.755 3.1%
Oklahoma $0.794 7.2%     $0.973 38.5%
Texas $6.433 3.8%     $10.956 23.2%
Total West South Central $8.571   1.9%     $13.188   21.7%
TOTAL SOUTH $19.679   0.5%     $26.924   21.2%
Arizona $0.528 6.4%     $0.227 -42.6%
Colorado $0.682 11.5%     $0.874 -2.7%
Idaho $0.185 18.5%     $0.266 -25.3%
Montana $0.120 39.5%     $0.227 -14.1%
Nevada $0.227 60.3%     $0.197 6.7%
New Mexico $0.424 14.3%     $0.489 -23.2%
Utah $0.706 16.9%     $1.084 33.9%
Wyoming $0.296 36.7%     $0.181 -61.5%
Total Mountain $3.168   8.1%     $3.543   -11.7%
Alaska $0.276 34.3%     $0.181 -34.9%
California $6.020 0.9%     $6.806 35.8%
Hawaii $0.242 2.1%     $0.432 265.8%
Oregon $0.634 34.5%     $1.491 64.3%
Washington $1.360 13.5%     $1.666 -9.1%
Total Pacific $8.532   3.7%     $10.577   29.8%
TOTAL WEST $11.700   4.7%     $14.120   16.1%
TOTAL U.S. $52.976   2.3%     $64.694   9.7%
Canada ($ volumes are in billions CAD)
Annual Average Average Y/Y    
$ Volume  % Change    
Previous 6 Years Previous 6 Years     2016 2016 versus 
(2010 to 2015) (2010 to 2015)     $ Volume  2015 (Y/Y)
       
Atlantic Canada $0.260 6.0%     $0.530 100.2%
Québec $0.774 23.2%     $0.800 -3.6%
Ontario $1.267 0.5%     $0.859 -34.7%
Manitoba $0.156 25.3%     $0.065 -65.3%
Saskatchewan $0.197 39.1%     $0.027 -92.0%
Alberta $0.633 78.1%     $0.795 -57.2%
British Columbia $0.506 0.4%     $0.372 1.1%
TOTAL CANADA $3.792   9.1%     $3.448   -33.3%
Data source: ConstructConnect Insight.
Table: ConstructConnect.