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By: Alex Carrick on August 14th, 2020

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July Nonresidential Construction Starts Down by a Quarter Both M/M & YTD

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

Sidebar Casualty of the Coronavirus Crisis – Mega Projects

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $28.6 billion (green shaded box, Table 4 below), down nearly one-quarter (-23.1%) versus June's figure of $37.2 billion (originally reported as $37.6 billion).

2020’s H1 Nonresidential Construction Starts Down by Nearly a Quarter Graphic

July 2020 nonresidential starts versus July 2019 were a jaw-dropping -44.0%. Measures to combat COVID-19 have not only depressed general economic activity, including new construction undertakings, they have seriously suppressed go-aheads for mega projects (i.e., jobs valued at $1 billion or more each).

There was only one mega project start-up in July of this year ‒ $1.4 billion in rapid transit work in San Dimas California, east of Las Angeles (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - July 2020). Year to date in 2020, there have been only five mega project groundbreakings, summing to $9.45 billion. In July of last year alone, four mega projects were green-lighted for a combined $8.7 billion. (The largest was the Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana, $4.5 billion).

 
View this information as an infographic
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A recovery in starts is sure to gain momentum as 2020 wanes and a fresh new year, 2021, begins to unfold. It seems unlikely, however, that 2019’s strength in mega projects will be duplicated anytime soon. The first seven months of 2019 featured 19 mega projects totaling $45.0 billion. Full-year 2019 included 35 mega project start-ups adding to $79.1 billion. To demonstrate how unique 2019 was for mega projects, 2018 saw just 20 such initiatives for $47.2 billion.

In 2020 year-to-date starts, the privately-financed categories of construction have been weakest—commercial, at -34.6%, and industrial, -77.5%—while public/government works have fallen into shallower pits—institutional, -15.0%, and engineering, -9.4%.

Q2’s Unprecedented Quarterly GDP Drop

As Graph 1 clearly illustrates, there’s been nothing like 2020’s Q2 gross domestic product collapse (-32.9% quarter to quarter annualized) in the history of data compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) dating back to 1947. The second worse result was -10.0% (less than one-third as steep) in Q1 of 1958.

The decline in economic activity in the Spring of this year became most apparent in the jobs market. March-April’s combined drop in total employment was a staggering -20.5 million positions. Since April, 7.6 million jobs have been recovered, although it has been a struggle. Lockdowns in many states were gradually eased, but re-openings also allowed the coronavirus to spread more easily, especially in the South and West of America. A 4.8-million-jobs surge in total employment in June shrank to 1.8 million in July.

Graph 1: U.S. 'Real' GDP Growth, Quarter-to-Quarter % Change Annualized
Since 1947 (i.e., Beginning of BEA data)
U.S. 'Real' GDP Growth, Quarter-to-Quarter % Change Annualized
Since 1947 (i.e., Beginning of BEA data) Chart
"Real" is after adjustment by price indices (2012 = 100.0).
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction Among Leading Sectors for Jobs Retention

The far-right column in Table 1 records jobs recovery ratios, also referred to as ‘claw-back’ ratios, for the total economy and key industrial sectors. The claw-back ratio is the number of jobs reinstated through July versus April divided by March-April’s ‘big drop.’ Economy-wide, a little more than one-third (37.3%) of the severe early-Spring jobs loss has been retrieved. Among industrial sectors, construction has the second-best record, with a claw-back ratio of 54.5%, trailing only retail trade, 56.7%.  

Worth noting, though, is that construction’s jobs gain in the standalone month of July was only +20,000 compared with the +1.8 million employment climb for the entire economy. Also know that the weighting of construction’s July jobs increase was entirely towards residential work, with nonresidential staffing modestly declining.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ July 2020

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ July 2020 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

As for construction employment presently compared with a year ago, Graph 2 highlights that the sector is doing comparatively well. Again, it’s in second place, at -4.1% y/y, this time behind only financial services, -1.4%. Manufacturing jobs are -5.7% y/y; ‘total’ employment is -7.5%. Standing out for its extraordinary degree of jobs distress it the ‘leisure and hospitality’ sector, with employment at -24.2% (or nearly minus one-quarter) year over year.

Graph 2: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − July 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − July 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted  payroll data) Chart
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

U.S. construction’s not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate in July was 8.9%, better than June’s 10.1% and vastly superior to April’s 16.6%. Of course, a year ago, in July 2019, it had been much tighter, at only 3.8%.

Engineering Starts Have Been Least Cringeworthy During Pandemic

July’s nearly one-quarter (-23.1%) pull-back in total nonresidential starts compared with June (m/m) originated mainly in the institutional type-of-structure category (-35.3%), with commercial (-22.6%) and heavy engineering/civil (-17.9%) also failing to provide any support. Only industrial managed an uptick (+107.2), but it was achieved on top of a low base figure. Still, it’s noteworthy that industrial in July included a Subaru car plant expansion in Tippecanoe County, Indiana. 

July 2020’s -44.0% performance of total nonresidential construction starts relative to July 2019 (y/y) resulted from all four type-of-structure categories being in the hole: industrial, -88.2%; commercial, -59.5%; institutional, -35.8%; and engineering, -14.8%.

The one-quarter (-25.5%) year-to-date decline in July was also a joint ‘effort’ by all type-of-structure categories, with industrial -77.5%; commercial, -34.6%; institutional, -15.0%; and engineering, -9.4%. (The ytd percent changes are for Jan-Jul 2020 versus Jan-Jul 2019.)

An Occasional Ray of Light in Year-To-Date Starts

The ‘school/college’ subcategory within institutional has accounted for the largest dollar volume of total nonresidential starts so far in 2020. The three percentage-change metrics for education facilities have been: -40.5% m/m; -19.2% y/y; and -14.7% ytd.

Usually important within institutional are health care starts. Presently, though, the medical facility designation, as the combination of ‘hospital/clinic,’ ‘nursing/assisted living,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical,’ lies comatose on a gurney: -40.8% m/m; -76.5% y/y; and -39.1% ytd.

Second behind schools for dollar volume of starts within total nonresidential so far this year is the subcategory ‘road/highway.’ Street starts have maintained good momentum on a year-to-date basis (-2.6%), although in July they were -18.8% m/m and -26.1% y/y.

Within commercial starts, the major subcategories were all down significantly year to date in July (‘hotel/motel,’ -45.8%; ‘private office building,’ -39.2%; and ‘retail/shopping,’ -32.1%), except for ‘warehouse,’ where the pullback was to a minor degree (-2.4%).

Only four subcategories of nonresidential starts have been positive on a year-to-date basis. One is within commercial (‘laboratory,’ +11.5%) and three are within institutional (‘library/museum,’ +17.6%; ‘fire/police/courthouse/prison,’ +13.4%; and ‘military,’ +154.6%). Only ‘military’ has also had gains both m/m (+39.8%) and y/y (+107.3%).

Mention should also be made of ‘water/sewage’ starts which were almost flat year to date in July (-0.2%), although they were -20.9% m/m and -10.9% y/y.    

Not All Trend Graphs Committed to Deep Slide

All the twelve-month moving average trend lines in the first four graphs (Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - July 2020) are displaying downward shifting tendencies. ‘Private office buildings’ and ‘retail’ are in the most distress. The engineering subcategory trend lines (Graphs 5 and 6) aren’t as obviously committed to deep slides. ‘Bridges’ and ‘miscellaneous civil’ appear to be hovering to see what will come next. The ‘roads/highways’ designation has been knocked off its stride only in the latest month and ‘water/sewage’ is keeping its composure.

Compensation for Construction Workers Remains So-So

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel) ‘all-jobs’ earnings y/y in July were +4.8% hourly and +5.4% weekly. Construction workers weren’t so fortunate: +3.2% hourly and +2.7% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding bosses), the ‘all jobs’ pay increases were +4.6% hourly and +6.2% weekly. Again, construction workers didn’t catch the slipstream: +3.0% hourly and +2.4% weekly.

3 PPI Construction Costing Series ‒ 2 Advances; 1 Retreat

July 2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ +0.2% (up from June’s -0.5%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ -0.3% (less negative than June’s -1.5%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +2.1% (down from June’s +2.2%).

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

‘Grand Total’ Starts -20.4% YTD

From Table 4 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in July were -13.0% m/m, -20.6% y/y, and -11.0% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were -21.4% m/m, -34.3% y/y, and -22.0% ytd. Single-family starts were -10.3% m/m, -15.8% y/y, and -6.2% ytd. Combining residential and nonresidential, ‘Grand Total’ construction starts in July 2020 were -19.3% m/m, -36.3% y/y, and -20.4% ytd.

ConstructConnect has moved to a better-targeted and research-assigned ‘start’ date. (Prior to January 2017, the ‘start’ date was recorded as occurring within 30 to 60 days of the announced bid date.) In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - July 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - July 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - July 2020.

TABLE 2: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
JULY 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-JUL 20 Jan-JUL 20 vs    JUL 20 vs   JUL 20 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-JUL 19   JUL 19   JUN 20
             
Hotel/Motel 7.143 -45.8%   -49.7%   58.9%
Retail 7.252 -32.1%   -26.2%   -11.6%
Parking Garage 1.077 -50.4%   -74.3%   -36.6%
Amusement 3.683 -20.8%   -74.6%   -39.7%
Private Office  12.120 -39.2%   -73.6%   -40.8%
Government Office 5.878 -12.2%   -44.9%   11.8%
Laboratory 1.232 11.5%   59.1%   -11.5%
Warehouse 12.263 -2.4%   -44.8%   -55.5%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 4.188 -67.6%   -74.9%   6.8%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 54.836 -34.6%   -59.5%   -22.6%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 7.884 -77.5%   -88.2%   107.2%
             
Religious 0.886 -23.5%   -44.0%   -17.0%
Hospital/Clinic 6.460 -39.5%   -84.0%   -48.3%
Nursing/Assisted Living 3.422 -43.5%   -61.1%   -28.9%
Library/Museum 2.770 17.6%   -52.3%   -24.3%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 3.939 13.4%   7.4%   -9.7%
Military 5.350 154.6%   107.3%   39.8%
School/College 43.515 -14.7%   -19.2%   -40.5%
Miscellaneous Medical 3.738 -33.5%   -56.9%   -34.9%
INSTITUTIONAL 70.081 -15.0%   -35.8%   -35.3%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 3.082 -24.2%   -38.6%   -23.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 135.882 -33.9%   -57.3%   -27.4%
             
Airport 3.420 -21.7%   -22.9%   -9.4%
Road/Highway 40.511 -2.6%   -26.1%   -18.8%
Bridge 15.249 -21.8%   -14.4%   -36.9%
Dam/Marine 4.688 -7.5%   -23.2%   -35.8%
Water/Sewage 18.686 -0.2%   -10.9%   -20.9%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 14.525 -18.7%   43.1%   22.4%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 97.079 -9.4%   -14.8%   -17.9%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 232.960 -25.5%   -44.0%   -23.1%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 3: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – JULY 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Jul 20 Jan-Jul 20 vs     Jul 20 vs Jul 20 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Jul 19     Jul 19 Jun 20
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     97.079 -9.4%     -14.8% -17.9%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 135.882 -33.9%     -57.3% -27.4%
RESIDENTIAL   147.984 -11.0%     -20.6% -13.0%
GRAND TOTAL   380.944 -20.4%     -36.3% -19.3%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 3.420 -21.7%     -22.9% -9.4%
    All Other Civil 12.342 11.9%     129.1% 36.1%
    Bridges 15.249 -21.8%     -14.4% -36.9%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 4.688 -7.5%     -23.2% -35.8%
    Power Infrastructure 2.183 -68.0%     -83.3% -59.6%
    Roads 40.511 -2.6%     -26.1% -18.8%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 18.686 -0.2%     -10.9% -20.9%
CIVIL     97.079 -9.4%     -14.8% -17.9%
    Offices (private) 12.120 -39.2%     -73.6% -40.8%
    Parking Garages 1.077 -50.4%     -74.3% -36.6%
    Transportation Terminals 1.356 -83.3%     -92.6% -46.6%
  Commercial (small subset) 14.552 -51.8%     -79.5% -41.2%
    Amusement 3.683 -20.8%     -74.6% -39.7%
    Libraries / Museums 2.770 17.6%     -52.3% -24.3%
    Religious 0.886 -23.5%     -44.0% -17.0%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 2.831 -41.0%     -47.7% 36.4%
  Community 10.170 -21.5%     -59.5% -10.5%
    College / University 10.574 -12.9%     22.9% -15.5%
    Elementary / Pre School 13.829 -8.6%     -30.0% -58.5%
    Jr / Sr High School 18.036 -19.7%     -27.7% -34.5%
    Special / Vocational 1.076 -15.4%     -54.0% -64.2%
  Educational 43.515 -14.7%     -19.2% -40.5%
    Courthouses 0.998 63.7%     -26.5% 5.8%
    Fire and Police Stations 1.779 -3.5%     42.2% 29.4%
    Government Offices 5.878 -12.2%     -44.9% 11.8%
    Prisons 1.162 14.0%     -9.2% -48.8%
  Government 9.818 -3.4%     -34.7% 3.9%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 1.232 11.5%     59.1% -11.5%
    Manufacturing 7.884 -77.5%     -88.2% 107.2%
    Warehouses 12.263 -2.4%     -44.8% -55.5%
  Industrial 21.378 -56.1%     -79.8% -23.0%
    Hospitals / Clinics 6.460 -39.5%     -84.0% -48.3%
    Medical Misc. 3.738 -33.5%     -56.9% -34.9%
    Nursing Homes 3.422 -43.5%     -61.1% -28.9%
  Medical   13.621 -39.1%     -76.5% -40.8%
  Military   5.350 154.6%     107.3% 39.8%
    Hotels 7.143 -45.8%     -49.7% 58.9%
    Retail Misc. 3.082 -24.2%     -38.6% -23.8%
    Shopping 7.252 -32.1%     -26.2% -11.6%
  Retail   17.477 -37.4%     -39.2% 2.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 135.882 -33.9%     -57.3% -27.4%
    Multi-Family 39.445 -22.0%     -34.3% -21.4%
    Single-Family 108.539 -6.2%     -15.8% -10.3%
RESIDENTIAL   147.984 -11.0%     -20.6% -13.0%
NONRESIDENTIAL 232.960 -25.5%     -44.0% -23.1%
GRAND TOTAL   380.944 -20.4%     -36.3% -19.3%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 4: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – JULY 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-JUL JAN-JUL
  MAY 20 JUN 20 JUL 20 MAY 20 JUN 20 JUL 20 MAY 20 JUN 20 JUL 20 2019 2020
                       
Single Family 13.998 17.224 15.445 14.726 14.925 15.556 16.286 16.211 15.970 115.683 108.539
   month-over-month % change 3.3% 23.0% -10.3% -5.2% 1.4% 4.2% -1.6% -0.5% -1.5%    
   year-over-year % change -18.2% -5.0% -15.8% -14.0% -16.2% -12.9% 0.6% 0.5% -1.1% -7.0% -6.2%
Apartment 5.342 5.447 4.283 5.529 5.223 5.024 7.679 7.467 7.281 50.553 39.445
   month-over-month % change 9.5% 2.0% -21.4% -3.2% -5.5% -3.8% -0.3% -2.8% -2.5%    
   year-over-year % change -5.1% -31.8% -34.3% -22.6% -27.8% -25.2% -1.3% -3.1% -4.4% -5.2% -22.0%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 19.340 22.670 19.728 20.255 20.148 20.580 23.965 23.678 23.250 166.235 147.984
   month-over-month % change 4.9% 17.2% -13.0% -4.7% -0.5% 2.1% -1.2% -1.2% -1.8%    
   year-over-year % change -15.0% -13.2% -20.6% -16.5% -19.5% -16.2% 0.0% -0.7% -2.1% -6.5% -11.0%
Hotel/Motel 0.431 0.485 0.771 0.826 0.618 0.562 1.629 1.514 1.450 13.174 7.143
   month-over-month % change -54.0% 12.5% 58.9% -36.8% -25.2% -9.0% -6.1% -7.1% -4.2%    
   year-over-year % change -74.5% -74.1% -49.7% -61.5% -66.3% -66.9% -14.8% -21.4% -24.0% -20.3% -45.8%
Retail 0.926 1.001 0.885 1.125 1.033 0.937 1.178 1.113 1.086 10.683 7.252
   month-over-month % change -21.0% 8.1% -11.6% 3.2% -8.2% -9.3% -5.0% -5.5% -2.3%    
   year-over-year % change -44.3% -43.8% -26.2% -26.1% -37.6% -39.4% -19.5% -25.7% -25.0% -8.0% -32.1%
Parking Garages 0.204 0.144 0.091 0.139 0.140 0.147 0.210 0.194 0.172 2.170 1.077
   month-over-month % change 186.5% -29.6% -36.6% 45.2% 0.4% 4.8% -6.4% -7.7% -11.3%    
   year-over-year % change -45.7% -57.4% -74.3% -60.4% -59.3% -58.9% -18.5% -28.8% -39.2% 32.4% -50.4%
Amusement 0.342 0.513 0.309 0.541 0.517 0.388 0.645 0.627 0.551 4.648 3.683
   month-over-month % change -50.9% 50.2% -39.7% -10.5% -4.4% -24.9% -2.1% -2.9% -12.1%    
   year-over-year % change -32.7% -30.2% -74.6% -4.9% -16.2% -52.7% -1.7% -2.4% -21.9% -2.0% -20.8%
Office 0.764 1.523 0.901 1.205 1.358 1.063 2.830 2.569 2.360 19.925 12.120
   month-over-month % change -57.3% 99.4% -40.8% -41.0% 12.7% -21.8% -3.4% -9.2% -8.1%    
   year-over-year % change -60.9% -67.3% -73.6% -62.8% -58.6% -68.2% 16.7% -5.2% -6.3% 1.7% -39.2%
Governmental Offices 0.779 0.850 0.950 0.906 0.845 0.860 0.982 0.964 0.899 6.693 5.878
   month-over-month % change -14.0% 9.0% 11.8% 4.2% -6.7% 1.8% -1.0% -1.9% -6.7%    
   year-over-year % change -13.3% -20.4% -44.9% 7.5% -12.9% -30.1% 6.7% 4.7% -9.6% 15.8% -12.2%
Laboratories 0.076 0.181 0.161 0.101 0.109 0.139 0.198 0.205 0.210 1.105 1.232
   month-over-month % change 11.2% 138.0% -11.5% -19.0% 7.2% 28.2% -4.9% 3.2% 2.4%    
   year-over-year % change -61.9% 73.9% 59.1% -51.5% -34.6% 3.1% -12.8% -6.1% 16.7% -40.4% 11.5%
Warehouse 1.940 1.907 0.848 1.828 2.038 1.565 1.910 1.883 1.826 12.563 12.263
   month-over-month % change -14.4% -1.7% -55.5% 17.5% 11.5% -23.2% 1.5% -1.4% -3.0%    
   year-over-year % change 21.2% -14.2% -44.8% -9.5% -11.0% -12.4% 6.0% 1.6% 1.7% -1.6% -2.4%
Misc Commercial 0.370 0.654 0.698 0.491 0.488 0.574 1.142 1.154 0.980 12.924 4.188
   month-over-month % change -15.8% 76.5% 6.8% -14.0% -0.6% 17.6% -25.2% 1.0% -15.0%    
   year-over-year % change -92.6% 27.9% -74.9% -79.4% -76.6% -79.2% -17.0% -7.1% -24.5% 34.2% -67.6%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 5.833 7.257 5.615 7.163 7.145 6.235 10.724 10.222 9.535 83.884 54.836
   month-over-month % change -30.1% 24.4% -22.6% -13.3% -0.2% -12.7% -5.9% -4.7% -6.7%    
   year-over-year % change -58.0% -45.4% -59.5% -46.1% -46.1% -54.4% -2.9% -9.4% -14.3% -0.3% -34.6%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 2.157 0.460 0.954 1.160 1.087 1.190 2.962 2.919 2.326 35.056 7.884
   month-over-month % change 235.4% -78.7% 107.2% 20.6% -6.3% 9.5% -22.7% -1.5% -20.3%    
   year-over-year % change -82.9% -52.9% -88.2% -82.6% -79.1% -83.5% -19.5% -18.4% -43.9% 65.8% -77.5%
Religious 0.123 0.095 0.079 0.156 0.096 0.099 0.149 0.139 0.134 1.157 0.886
   month-over-month % change 73.7% -22.6% -17.0% 3.1% -38.0% 2.9% -3.8% -6.3% -3.7%    
   year-over-year % change -36.6% -54.3% -44.0% -6.6% -47.3% -45.3% -16.6% -18.5% -21.7% -10.3% -23.5%
Hosptials/Clinics 1.146 0.916 0.474 0.815 0.917 0.845 1.694 1.609 1.401 10.678 6.460
   month-over-month % change 66.3% -20.1% -48.3% -12.1% 12.4% -7.8% 0.1% -5.0% -12.9%    
   year-over-year % change 1.7% -52.7% -84.0% -30.7% -29.1% -58.0% 35.5% 23.6% -4.9% 8.1% -39.5%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.473 0.372 0.264 0.537 0.486 0.369 0.631 0.611 0.577 6.061 3.422
   month-over-month % change -23.1% -21.4% -28.9% 4.4% -9.5% -24.0% -5.8% -3.2% -5.6%    
   year-over-year % change -49.8% -39.7% -61.1% -43.3% -39.6% -50.4% -28.8% -28.9% -32.1% -6.5% -43.5%
Libraries/Museums 0.347 0.296 0.224 0.264 0.301 0.289 0.397 0.392 0.371 2.354 2.770
   month-over-month % change 33.6% -14.6% -24.3% -33.1% 14.0% -3.9% -3.5% -1.2% -5.2%    
   year-over-year % change -33.3% -16.4% -52.3% -34.5% -24.5% -35.5% 50.1% 43.9% 25.2% 52.4% 17.6%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.424 0.499 0.451 0.542 0.482 0.458 0.621 0.612 0.614 3.473 3.939
   month-over-month % change -18.8% 17.8% -9.7% -0.6% -11.1% -4.9% -2.1% -1.5% 0.4%    
   year-over-year % change -27.2% -18.4% 7.4% 0.8% -16.8% -14.9% -4.7% -4.4% 2.1% -20.5% 13.4%
Military 0.488 0.530 0.742 1.044 0.991 0.587 0.655 0.669 0.701 2.101 5.350
   month-over-month % change -75.1% 8.7% 39.8% 6.2% -5.1% -40.8% 2.7% 2.2% 4.8%    
   year-over-year % change 75.6% 47.8% 107.3% 234.7% 244.0% 77.0% 57.0% 60.5% 68.7% -10.5% 154.6%
Schools/Colleges 7.034 9.264 5.511 6.674 7.405 7.269 5.980 5.795 5.686 51.010 43.515
   month-over-month % change 18.9% 31.7% -40.5% 17.3% 10.9% -1.8% -2.1% -3.1% -1.9%    
   year-over-year % change -18.2% -19.4% -19.2% -12.6% -21.3% -18.9% -4.1% -8.7% -10.2% 9.6% -14.7%
Misc Government 0.786 0.409 0.266 0.684 0.594 0.487 0.705 0.650 0.621 5.621 3.738
   month-over-month % change 34.1% -48.0% -34.9% 21.2% -13.1% -18.0% -3.1% -7.8% -4.5%    
   year-over-year % change -25.7% -61.6% -56.9% -21.7% -41.9% -46.7% -20.6% -24.3% -25.5% -18.2% -33.5%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 10.820 12.381 8.010 10.716 11.272 10.404 10.831 10.477 10.105 82.456 70.081
   month-over-month % change 1.9% 14.4% -35.3% 9.7% 5.2% -7.7% -1.9% -3.3% -3.5%    
   year-over-year % change -18.6% -25.6% -35.8% -11.1% -19.4% -26.4% 0.5% -3.6% -7.9% 4.0% -15.0%
Misc Non Residential 0.370 0.484 0.369 0.412 0.419 0.408 0.585 0.574 0.555 4.067 3.082
   month-over-month % change -7.8% 30.7% -23.8% -4.5% 1.7% -2.6% -3.1% -1.9% -3.4%    
   year-over-year % change -38.0% -21.3% -38.6% -32.5% -33.6% -32.5% -2.3% -1.3% -1.8% -9.5% -24.2%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 19.180 20.583 14.948 19.450 19.923 18.237 25.102 24.191 22.520 205.463 135.882
   month-over-month % change -4.1% 7.3% -27.4% 0.1% 2.4% -8.5% -6.6% -3.6% -6.9%    
   year-over-year % change -52.5% -34.7% -57.3% -40.4% -39.7% -48.8% -3.8% -8.0% -16.0% 8.7% -33.9%
Airports 0.539 0.886 0.803 0.461 0.578 0.743 0.532 0.556 0.536 4.369 3.420
   month-over-month % change 74.4% 64.3% -9.4% 34.5% 25.3% 28.5% -2.1% 4.6% -3.6%    
   year-over-year % change -20.6% 49.9% -22.9% -9.8% -4.2% -3.6% -5.3% -3.6% -12.3% 1.7% -21.7%
Roads/Highways 6.774 7.159 5.816 6.665 7.201 6.583 5.482 5.521 5.349 41.603 40.511
   month-over-month % change -11.7% 5.7% -18.8% 18.0% 8.0% -8.6% -0.9% 0.7% -3.1%    
   year-over-year % change -7.8% 7.0% -26.1% 1.5% 2.1% -9.9% 4.2% 3.9% -0.3% 2.8% -2.6%
Bridges 1.981 2.715 1.712 2.229 2.143 2.136 2.148 2.184 2.160 19.510 15.249
   month-over-month % change 14.3% 37.1% -36.9% 0.9% -3.8% -0.3% -1.1% 1.7% -1.1%    
   year-over-year % change -12.3% 18.9% -14.4% -36.5% -42.4% -2.1% -10.3% -8.9% -10.5% 33.7% -21.8%
Dams/Marine 0.885 0.663 0.426 0.781 0.785 0.658 0.728 0.692 0.681 5.068 4.688
   month-over-month % change 9.7% -25.1% -35.8% 33.3% 0.6% -16.2% -11.9% -5.0% -1.5%    
   year-over-year % change -57.0% -39.9% -23.2% -13.2% -33.3% -46.9% 11.1% -3.2% -5.0% 62.8% -7.5%
Water/Sewage 2.297 3.425 2.709 2.815 2.897 2.811 2.589 2.660 2.633 18.715 18.686
   month-over-month % change -22.6% 49.1% -20.9% 3.2% 2.9% -3.0% -1.9% 2.8% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change -21.0% 33.5% -10.9% 2.2% -1.6% -1.0% 7.7% 10.2% 7.5% -1.3% -0.2%
Misc Civil 3.809 1.795 2.198 2.228 2.285 2.601 3.921 3.516 3.572 17.859 14.525
   month-over-month % change 204.6% -52.9% 22.4% 73.4% 2.6% 13.8% -1.1% -10.3% 1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -11.8% -73.0% 43.1% -16.2% -46.1% -37.6% 97.8% 54.0% 51.8% -17.9% -18.7%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 16.285 16.644 13.665 15.179 15.888 15.531 15.400 15.130 14.931 107.123 97.079
   month-over-month % change 10.5% 2.2% -17.9% 18.6% 4.7% -2.2% -1.7% -1.8% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change -16.8% -16.3% -14.8% -10.2% -19.5% -16.1% 16.2% 10.4% 7.3% 3.8% -9.4%
GRAND TOTAL 54.805 59.897 48.340 54.884 55.959 54.348 64.467 62.999 60.701 478.822 380.944
   month-over-month % change 3.1% 9.3% -19.3% 2.6% 2.0% -2.9% -3.5% -2.3% -3.6%    
   year-over-year % change -33.7% -22.7% -36.3% -25.6% -28.1% -30.9% 1.8% -1.3% -5.9% 1.9% -20.4%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 35.465 37.227 28.612 34.629 35.811 33.768 40.502 39.321 37.451 312.586 232.960
   month-over-month % change 2.1% 5.0% -23.1% 7.5% 3.4% -5.7% -4.8% -2.9% -4.8%    
   year-over-year % change -40.8% -27.6% -44.0% -30.1% -32.2% -37.6% 2.9% -1.7% -8.0% 6.9% -25.5%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 5: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-JUL 2019   JAN-JUL 2020   % Change
           
Connecticut $3,674,262,830   $2,308,211,734   -37.2%
Maine $1,134,917,790   $1,002,628,466   -11.7%
Massachusetts $8,251,934,918   $5,092,443,402   -38.3%
New Hampshire $969,657,247   $610,549,289   -37.0%
Rhode Island $634,738,443   $460,318,632   -27.5%
Vermont $268,181,442   $421,509,080   57.2%
Total New England $14,933,692,670   $9,895,660,603   -33.7%
New Jersey $4,415,578,144   $4,143,733,347   -6.2%
New York $14,204,223,177   $11,755,417,263   -17.2%
Pennsylvania $10,533,706,760   $6,060,951,356   -42.5%
Total Middle Atlantic $29,153,508,081   $21,960,101,966   -24.7%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $44,087,200,751   $31,855,762,569   -27.7%
Illinois $8,687,163,591   $9,665,764,655   11.3%
Indiana $4,940,608,798   $4,922,097,424   -0.4%
Michigan $5,808,405,849   $4,544,331,536   -21.8%
Ohio $9,020,939,192   $7,127,079,724   -21.0%
Wisconsin $6,740,227,592   $5,542,751,089   -17.8%
Total East North Central $35,197,345,022   $31,802,024,428   -9.6%
Iowa $3,327,595,389   $3,534,406,041   6.2%
Kansas $3,267,363,970   $2,605,053,027   -20.3%
Minnesota $7,506,857,771   $5,288,860,241   -29.5%
Missouri $5,558,586,129   $7,150,338,198   28.6%
Nebraska $2,522,472,880   $2,950,768,770   17.0%
North Dakota $1,432,284,787   $1,394,813,618   -2.6%
South Dakota $1,245,007,008   $868,670,143   -30.2%
Total West North Central $24,860,167,934   $23,792,910,038   -4.3%
TOTAL MIDWEST $60,057,512,956   $55,594,934,466   -7.4%
Delaware $751,247,444   $841,917,883   12.1%
District of Columbia $1,378,513,014   $517,673,778   -62.4%
Florida $18,351,383,318   $13,175,834,635   -28.2%
Georgia $12,767,069,730   $6,271,153,978   -50.9%
Maryland $4,705,415,811   $4,546,299,157   -3.4%
North Carolina $8,516,233,203   $6,232,363,612   -26.8%
South Carolina $4,386,631,485   $3,063,175,925   -30.2%
Virginia $10,005,974,126   $6,491,889,571   -35.1%
West Virginia $1,054,284,482   $1,651,851,532   56.7%
Total South Atlantic $61,916,752,613   $42,792,160,071   -30.9%
Alabama $6,483,747,523   $3,137,987,959   -51.6%
Kentucky $4,274,739,096   $1,914,670,265   -55.2%
Mississippi $1,661,966,230   $1,859,698,810   11.9%
Tennessee $5,559,208,992   $4,560,536,377   -18.0%
Total East South Central $17,979,661,841   $11,472,893,411   -36.2%
Arkansas $2,039,788,285   $2,310,970,716   13.3%
Louisiana $6,827,825,304   $2,610,953,865   -61.8%
Oklahoma $3,290,196,953   $2,279,591,885   -30.7%
Texas $48,508,826,041   $26,223,465,604   -45.9%
Total West South Central $60,666,636,583   $33,424,982,070   -44.9%
TOTAL SOUTH $140,563,051,037   $87,690,035,552   -37.6%
Arizona $5,533,948,093   $4,911,382,861   -11.2%
Colorado $5,992,468,460   $4,240,118,093   -29.2%
Idaho $1,473,729,976   $922,313,645   -37.4%
Montana $882,296,471   $900,049,558   2.0%
Nevada $3,902,632,047   $2,416,304,697   -38.1%
New Mexico $894,736,417   $1,503,850,330   68.1%
Utah $3,588,915,135   $4,350,733,079   21.2%
Wyoming $3,789,098,641   $744,243,967   -80.4%
Total Mountain $26,057,825,240   $19,988,996,230   -23.3%
Alaska $732,057,529   $777,865,926   6.3%
California $24,646,907,418   $23,810,727,691   -3.4%
Hawaii $1,583,531,834   $1,098,355,518   -30.6%
Oregon $3,695,838,889   $2,789,207,751   -24.5%
Washington $11,162,429,749   $9,354,210,045   -16.2%
Total Pacific $41,820,765,419   $37,830,366,931   -9.5%
TOTAL WEST $67,878,590,659   $57,819,363,161   -14.8%
TOTAL U.S. $312,586,355,403   $232,960,095,748   -25.5%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.


CanaData 2020

About Alex Carrick

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

     
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