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By: Alex Carrick on June 11th, 2020

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May Nonresidential ‘Starts’ Almost Even M/M, but -1/2 Y/Y & -1/4 YTD

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

May 2020 Can’t Compete with May 2019’s Mega Project Strength

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $32.1 billion (green shaded box, Table 4 below), a slight drop of -2.8% versus April’s figure of $33.0 billion (originally reported as $31.6 billion).

April Nonresidential Construction Starts Sink Lower Ytd, -16.7% Graphic

This year’s May compared with last year’s ultra-strong May was down by nearly half (-46.5%). May of last year’s starts statistics included $19 billion worth of mega projects (i.e., projects of $1 billion or more each), the largest of which was the Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Texas for $10 billion. By way of comparison, there are two mega project groundbreakings in the latest monthly statistics, summing to $4.3 billion (see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - May 2020).   

 
View this information as an infographic
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As for 2020’s year-to-date total nonresidential starts, they’ve fallen by a quarter (-24.2%) compared with January-May 2019. Construction starts originating with the private sector have taken a bigger tumble than those in the public sector. Commercial and industrial starts are -31% and -80% year to date respectively, while institutional and engineering are -13% and -7%.  

Graph 1: U.S. Total Employment

U.S. Total Employment Chart
Gray shadings denote recessions, Q2-Q3 2001 (‘dot.com’ collapse) & Q1 2008-Q2 2009 (‘Great’ Recession).
Latest data points are for April, 2020 / Based on seasonally adjusted (SA) data.
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction Managed a Good Jobs Bounce Back in May

May’s Labor Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) delivered a nice surprise, a 2.5 million jobs pickup in total U.S. employment. Considering that 20.5 million jobs vanished in just two months, between February and April, however, there’s clearly a long way still to go, to regain the kind of tight labor market that existed at the beginning of this year.

Table 1 provides an overview of how the entire economy and its major industrial sub-sectors are doing on the jobs recovery front. The two left-hand columns are the benchmark figures. Assuming that April was the worst month for employment during the pandemic, the ‘big drop’ in total jobs (February to April) was -20.5 million, and in construction, it was -975,000. The percentage declines (February to April) were -13.5% for ‘total’ and -12.8% for construction.

The crucial question going forward will be how much of the job losses have been taken back. With May’s gain, ‘total’ employment has gone from -20.5 million to -19.5 million as a level and from -13.8% to -12.8% as a percentage. Construction has gone from -975,000 to -596,000 as a level and from -12.8% to -7.8% as a percentage. Among all sectors, and while it’s still not out of its jobs-reduction hole, construction has managed the best bounce back among all the industrial sectors shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ May 2020

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ May 2020 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Construction’s Unemployment Rate ‘Improves’ to 12.7%

Construction also fares better than the other sectors in Graph 2, which sets out year-over-year percentage changes in employment by sector. At -5.8% y/y, construction is in third place behind financial activities, -1.5%, and wholesale trade, -5.7%. Notably, construction has hung on to workers better than government, -6.1%. State and local governments, facing extreme revenue shortfalls from income, sales and property tax declines, are shedding personnel at a faster clip than Washington. From Table 1, while nearly every corner of the economy managed an uptick in employment month over month in May, government employment sank some more, -2.7%.

Construction’s not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate in May was 12.7%, down from 16.6% in April, but way above May 2019’s 3.2%. Among all sectors, ‘leisure and hospitality’ is currently experiencing the worst unemployment rate, 35.9%—although that’s better than April’s figure of 39.3%.

Graph 2: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − May 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − April  2020 (based on seasonally adjusted  payroll data) Chart
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Hanging Tough: Government Office Buildings, Military, & Roads

May’s minor decline of -2.8% in total nonresidential starts month to month (m/m) was due to contractions in the commercial, -33.4%, and institutional, -15.4%, type-of-structure categories. Industrial, +1160.2%, and heavy engineering/civil, +8.8%, performed well. Industrial was boosted by a steel plant in Texas; engineering, by rapid transit work in the Seattle metro area.

The latest month’s drop of nearly half (-46.5%) in total nonresidential starts versus May 2019 (y/y) was especially bad in industrial, -83.1%, and commercial, -63.8%. The setbacks in institutional, -34.2%, and engineering, -19.2%, were also severe, but not quite as jaw-dropping. May of last year featured a wealth of mega projects. But also harmful for May of this year (i.e., versus May of last year) was the ‘halt most activity’ directive placed on the economy to thwart the advance of the coronavirus. For construction projects not already significantly underway, and therefore allowed to continue, owners contemplating new work were forced to pause and reflect on whether it was advisable to issue go-aheads, given the circumstances.

As for the one-quarter setback (-24.2%) in year to date (ytd) total nonresidential starts, it resulted from weakness in all four major type-of-structure categories: industrial, -79.5%; commercial, -30.9%; institutional, -13.0%; and engineering, -7.2%. Within commercial (and sticking to the larger dollar-volume subcategories), the steepest ytd declines have come in ‘hotel/motel’ (-40.0%), ‘retail/shopping’ (-31.8%), and ‘private office building’ (-22.1%) work. ‘Warehouse’ starts are off by a little (-14.9% ytd), while ‘government office building’ starts have pulled ahead (+3.8%).

Institutional has ‘schools/colleges’ as by far its largest subcategory and ytd starts on educational projects are currently -16.8%. The three healthcare subcategories of institutional are all in arrears ytd, with the ‘hospital/clinic’ designation -27.1%; ‘nursing/assisted living’, -47.3%; and ‘miscellaneous medical’, -35.7%. Strikingly on the upside, though, are ‘military’ starts, +205.7% ytd.    

Year-to-date starts among engineering’s major sub-categories have hung tough under trying conditions. ‘Road/highway’ initiations in May 2020 were +0.8% ytd. ‘Miscellaneous civil’ starts (including the Washington state rapid transit project) were +7.6%. And ‘water/sewage’ starts were a not so terrible -4.6% ytd. Only ‘bridge’ work, among the bigger dollar volume subcategories, has come under noteworthy duress ytd, -29.6%.

Broad Stroke Observations Concerning the Trend Graphs

The Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - May 2020, showcasing starts trends for a dozen type-of-structure categories, are interesting but, admittedly, only so-so relevant at this present time. Because they feature 12-month moving averages, they continue to carry a heavy weighting of pre-COVID-19 starts levels. For several of the type-of-structure categories, the graphs are not yet capturing the severity of the downturn. There are broad stroke observations to be made, nonetheless.

Significant and readily apparent trend line descents are becoming manifest in the ‘nonresidential building,’ ‘commercial,’ ‘private office building,’ and ‘bridges’ starts categories. ‘Retail’s’ slide is nothing new; it’s been underway for four years. Two engineering subcategories have been maintaining level paths, ‘roads/highways’ and ‘water/sewage.’ The widespread practice of staying at home to fight the pandemic has freed highways and streets of congestion and provided transportation officials and road builders with an opportunity to get on with extension, widening and repaving ventures.  

Compensation for Construction Work Sidelined

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

In what follows, keep in mind that the employment devastation has had an inordinate impact on lower-paying jobs, especially in the hospitality sector. (Much of such work is also normally part-time.) With the disappearance of many lower-paying positions, ‘all-jobs, average compensation rates have risen. For many ‘essential’ workers, there have also been bonuses and hazard pay.

From Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel) the ‘all-jobs’ earnings y/y in May were +6.7% hourly and +7.7% weekly. Construction workers were left on the sidelines, at +2.5% hourly and +2.0% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding bosses), the ‘all jobs’ pay increases were +6.7% hourly and +8.3% weekly. Construction workers received +1.7% hourly and +1.2% weekly.

3 PPI Construction Costing Series ‒ 1 Advance; 2 Retreats

May 2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ -1.8% (more negative than April’s -1.1%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ -3.2% (less negative than April’s -4.0%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +2.5% (smaller than April’s +2.8%).

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

‘Grand Total’ Starts -19.6% YTD

From Table 4 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in May were +5.5% m/m, -19.7% y/y and -11.2% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were -23.0% m/m, -40.5% y/y and -27.0% ytd. Single-family starts were +15.1% m/m, but -12.9% y/y, and -4.1% ytd. Combining residential and nonresidential, ‘Grand Total’ construction starts in May 2020 were +0.1% m/m, but -39.1% y/y and -19.6% ytd.

ConstructConnect has moved to a better-targeted and research-assigned ‘start’ date. (Prior to January 2017, the ‘start’ date was recorded as occurring within 30 to 60 days of the announced bid date.) In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or rebid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - May 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - April 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - May 2020.

TABLE 2: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
APRIL 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-MAY 20 Jan-MAY 20 vs    MAY 20 vs   MAY 20 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-MAY 19   MAY 19   APR 20
             
Hotel/Motel 5.858 -40.0%   -67.6%   -45.7%
Retail 5.253 -31.8%   -38.8%   -13.9%
Parking Garage 0.874 -40.9%   -49.0%   164.5%
Amusement 2.696 0.1%   -41.4%   -52.7%
Private Office  9.244 -22.1%   -65.7%   -59.3%
Government Office 4.048 3.8%   -17.9%   -18.5%
Laboratory 0.920 2.3%   -56.2%   -15.6%
Warehouse 7.491 -14.9%   -32.0%   -29.2%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 2.826 -70.7%   -92.3%   -14.8%
COMMERCIAL 39.210 -30.9%   -63.8%   -33.4%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 5.325 -79.5%   -83.1%   1160.2%
             
Religious 0.601 -25.5%   -72.3%   -6.3%
Hospital/Clinic 4.208 -27.1%   -46.8%   26.2%
Nursing/Assisted Living 2.513 -47.3%   -57.8%   -38.1%
Library/Museum 2.127 39.0%   -60.6%   -24.3%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 2.965 21.5%   -22.1%   -15.6%
Military 4.233 205.7%   105.1%   -71.1%
School/College 27.220 -16.8%   -30.1%   2.3%
Miscellaneous Government 2.532 -35.7%   -56.5%   -9.9%
INSTITUTIONAL 46.399 -13.0%   -34.2%   -15.4%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 2.223 -22.1%   -38.5%   -15.4%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 93.157 -33.0%   -59.7%   -12.0%
             
Airport 1.751 -36.0%   -19.5%   77.1%
Road/Highway 27.270 0.8%   -9.3%   -12.8%
Bridge 10.719 -29.6%   -18.1%   7.2%
Dam/Marine 3.392 -0.5%   -68.8%   -21.9%
Water/Sewage 12.509 -4.6%   -21.3%   -21.0%
Miscellaneous Civil 10.406 7.6%   -11.5%   236.6%
HEAVY ENGINEERING 66.047 -7.2%   -19.2%   8.8%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 159.204 -24.2%   -46.5%   -2.8%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 3: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – MAY 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-May 20 Jan-May 20 vs     May 20 vs May 20 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-May 19     May 19 Apr 20
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     66.047 -7.2%     -19.2% 8.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 93.157 -33.0%     -59.7% -12.0%
RESIDENTIAL   102.304 -11.2%     -19.7% 5.5%
GRAND TOTAL   261.508 -19.6%     -39.1% 0.1%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 1.751 -36.0%     -19.5% 77.1%
    All Other Civil 8.654 23.1%     15.8% 311.1%
    Bridges 10.719 -29.6%     -18.1% 7.2%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 3.392 -0.5%     -68.8% -21.9%
    Power Infrastructure 1.752 -33.7%     -63.9% 58.8%
    Roads 27.270 0.8%     -9.3% -12.8%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 12.509 -4.6%     -21.3% -21.0%
CIVIL     66.047 -7.2%     -19.2% 8.8%
    Offices (private) 9.244 -22.1%     -65.7% -59.3%
    Parking Garages 0.874 -40.9%     -49.0% 164.5%
    Transportation Terminals 0.980 -84.4%     -94.5% 77.9%
  Commercial (small subset) 11.098 -43.5%     -83.7% -40.3%
    Amusement 2.696 0.1%     -41.4% -52.7%
    Libraries / Museums 2.127 39.0%     -60.6% -24.3%
    Religious 0.601 -25.5%     -72.3% -6.3%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 1.846 -44.8%     -74.2% -56.2%
  Community 7.270 -13.2%     -60.4% -45.4%
    College / University 6.611 -25.6%     -45.3% 14.1%
    Elementary / Pre School 8.399 -13.6%     -24.1% 25.4%
    Jr / Sr High School 11.593 -12.2%     -25.8% -15.3%
    Special / Vocational 0.616 -30.3%     -43.8% -1.3%
  Educational 27.220 -16.8%     -30.1% 2.3%
    Courthouses 0.862 91.5%     26.3% 60.7%
    Fire and Police Stations 1.309 4.8%     -39.4% 1.8%
    Government Offices 4.048 3.8%     -17.9% -18.5%
    Prisons 0.795 7.1%     -8.2% -48.6%
  Government 7.014 10.6%     -19.6% -17.4%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 0.920 2.3%     -56.2% -15.6%
    Manufacturing 5.325 -79.5%     -83.1% 1160.2%
    Warehouses 7.491 -14.9%     -32.0% -29.2%
  Industrial 13.737 -61.5%     -77.0% 82.6%
    Hospitals / Clinics 4.208 -27.1%     -46.8% 26.2%
    Medical Misc. 2.532 -35.7%     -56.5% -9.9%
    Nursing Homes 2.513 -47.3%     -57.8% -38.1%
  Medical   9.253 -36.1%     -53.4% -10.5%
  Military   4.233 205.7%     105.1% -71.1%
    Hotels 5.858 -40.0%     -67.6% -45.7%
    Retail Misc. 2.223 -22.1%     -38.5% -15.4%
    Shopping 5.253 -31.8%     -38.8% -13.9%
  Retail   13.334 -34.4%     -51.1% -26.4%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 93.157 -33.0%     -59.7% -12.0%
    Multi-Family 26.327 -27.0%     -40.5% -23.0%
    Single-Family 75.977 -4.1%     -12.9% 15.1%
RESIDENTIAL   102.304 -11.2%     -19.7% 5.5%
NONRESIDENTIAL 159.204 -24.2%     -46.5% -2.8%
GRAND TOTAL   261.508 -19.6%     -39.1% 0.1%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 4: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – MAY 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-MAY JAN-MAY
  MAR 20 APR 20 MAY 20 MAR 20 APR 20 MAY 20 MAR 20 APR 20 MAY 20 2019 2020
                       
Single Family 16.421 12.951 14.911 16.038 15.267 14.761 16.914 16.479 16.295 79.216 75.977
   month-over-month % change -0.1% -21.1% 15.1% 1.8% -4.8% -3.3% 0.2% -2.6% -1.1%    
   year-over-year % change 2.1% -28.7% -12.9% 9.5% -2.5% -13.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.6% -9.2% -4.1%
Apartment 6.224 4.354 3.351 6.207 5.391 4.643 7.849 7.537 7.347 36.045 26.327
   month-over-month % change 11.2% -30.1% -23.0% -9.7% -13.2% -13.9% -1.5% -4.0% -2.5%    
   year-over-year % change -19.2% -46.2% -40.5% -16.6% -31.2% -35.0% -1.3% -5.3% -5.5% -2.3% -27.0%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 22.645 17.305 18.263 22.245 20.658 19.404 24.762 24.016 23.642 115.261 102.304
   month-over-month % change 2.8% -23.6% 5.5% -1.7% -7.1% -6.1% -0.4% -3.0% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -4.8% -34.1% -19.7% 0.7% -12.1% -20.0% 0.8% -1.7% -1.4% -7.2% -11.2%
Hotel/Motel 1.104 1.011 0.549 1.433 1.278 0.888 1.770 1.693 1.598 9.767 5.858
   month-over-month % change -35.8% -8.4% -45.7% -15.5% -10.8% -30.5% -7.5% -4.3% -5.6%    
   year-over-year % change -60.9% -47.6% -67.6% -30.0% -41.0% -58.6% -21.5% -24.5% -16.4% -25.3% -40.0%
Retail 1.282 1.183 1.018 1.017 1.072 1.161 1.245 1.216 1.162 7.703 5.253
   month-over-month % change 70.6% -7.7% -13.9% 11.9% 5.3% 8.3% -0.6% -2.3% -4.4%    
   year-over-year % change -7.0% -22.5% -38.8% -32.4% -31.7% -23.8% -16.8% -16.9% -20.5% -9.0% -31.8%
Parking Garages 0.177 0.073 0.192 0.203 0.111 0.147 0.246 0.226 0.210 1.477 0.874
   month-over-month % change 113.1% -59.0% 164.5% 10.4% -45.5% 32.8% -5.9% -8.3% -6.8%    
   year-over-year % change -51.2% -77.1% -49.0% -22.4% -57.7% -58.2% -6.5% -15.2% -18.5% 18.4% -40.9%
Amusement 0.568 0.629 0.297 0.590 0.566 0.498 0.644 0.645 0.628 2.693 2.696
   month-over-month % change 13.3% 10.7% -52.7% -3.5% -4.0% -12.0% -0.3% 0.3% -2.7%    
   year-over-year % change -4.0% 3.4% -41.4% 12.2% 5.6% -12.5% -5.3% -4.4% -4.3% -20.1% 0.1%
Office 0.953 1.645 0.669 2.310 1.925 1.089 2.993 2.860 2.753 11.866 9.244
   month-over-month % change -70.0% 72.7% -59.3% -10.5% -16.7% -43.4% -9.0% -4.4% -3.7%    
   year-over-year % change -78.9% -49.3% -65.7% 3.9% -34.3% -66.3% 28.4% 19.8% 13.5% -6.2% -22.1%
Governmental Offices 1.044 0.906 0.738 0.801 0.867 0.896 0.995 0.992 0.978 3.900 4.048
   month-over-month % change 59.9% -13.2% -18.5% 14.8% 8.2% 3.3% 3.1% -0.3% -1.4%    
   year-over-year % change 52.4% -4.1% -17.9% 16.9% 13.8% 6.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.3% 0.7% 3.8%
Laboratories 0.192 0.104 0.088 0.243 0.132 0.128 0.215 0.207 0.198 0.900 0.920
   month-over-month % change 93.5% -45.8% -15.6% -13.4% -45.8% -2.9% -1.6% -3.5% -4.5%    
   year-over-year % change -17.6% -46.5% -56.2% 44.2% -20.7% -38.9% -14.0% -14.9% -13.0% -16.6% 2.3%
Warehouse 1.072 1.538 1.088 1.622 1.205 1.233 1.876 1.750 1.708 8.804 7.491
   month-over-month % change 6.6% 43.5% -29.2% -16.9% -25.7% 2.3% -1.5% -6.7% -2.4%    
   year-over-year % change -24.0% -49.5% -32.0% 17.0% -37.5% -39.0% 5.4% -8.0% -5.2% -1.3% -14.9%
Misc Commercial 0.665 0.448 0.382 0.665 0.564 0.499 1.540 1.513 1.130 9.633 2.826
   month-over-month % change 15.2% -32.6% -14.8% -9.3% -15.2% -11.6% -3.8% -1.7% -25.3%    
   year-over-year % change -52.4% -41.9% -92.3% -48.6% -39.3% -79.1% 32.7% 45.4% -17.9% 78.2% -70.7%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 7.056 7.536 5.022 8.884 7.719 6.538 11.523 11.103 10.366 56.744 39.210
   month-over-month % change -17.6% 6.8% -33.4% -7.9% -13.1% -15.3% -4.4% -3.6% -6.6%    
   year-over-year % change -47.3% -40.1% -63.8% -12.0% -31.4% -50.8% 3.4% -0.4% -6.1% -2.3% -30.9%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 0.603 0.169 2.131 1.008 0.714 0.968 3.785 3.631 2.759 26.004 5.325
   month-over-month % change -56.0% -71.9% 1160.2% -18.4% -29.2% 35.6% -9.6% -4.0% -24.0%    
   year-over-year % change -88.9% -91.6% -83.1% -73.5% -79.1% -85.5% 5.3% -0.3% -25.0% 47.3% -79.5%
Religious 0.262 0.058 0.054 0.163 0.138 0.125 0.161 0.153 0.142 0.807 0.601
   month-over-month % change 178.2% -78.1% -6.3% 35.0% -15.4% -9.8% 5.7% -4.6% -7.6%    
   year-over-year % change 65.1% -60.7% -72.3% 5.0% 1.2% -25.2% -14.0% -15.4% -20.6% -5.7% -25.5%
Hosptials/Clinics 0.537 0.475 0.600 1.044 0.827 0.537 1.672 1.644 1.600 5.775 4.208
   month-over-month % change -63.4% -11.6% 26.2% -21.3% -20.8% -35.0% -5.0% -1.7% -2.7%    
   year-over-year % change -66.1% -41.8% -46.8% -18.2% -20.6% -54.3% 20.4% 29.4% 27.9% -24.6% -27.1%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.367 0.643 0.398 0.491 0.468 0.469 0.678 0.660 0.614 4.766 2.513
   month-over-month % change -7.1% 75.2% -38.1% -4.1% -4.6% 0.2% -7.7% -2.6% -6.9%    
   year-over-year % change -64.8% -25.1% -57.8% -50.4% -48.1% -50.5% -25.1% -26.2% -30.7% 0.7% -47.3%
Libraries/Museums 0.188 0.270 0.205 0.551 0.401 0.221 0.409 0.405 0.379 1.530 2.127
   month-over-month % change -74.7% 43.7% -24.3% 0.7% -27.2% -44.8% -3.5% -1.0% -6.5%    
   year-over-year % change -48.8% -15.8% -60.6% 139.6% 52.0% -45.1% 66.0% 57.0% 43.3% 38.1% 39.0%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.629 0.537 0.453 0.658 0.527 0.540 0.636 0.636 0.625 2.442 2.965
   month-over-month % change 51.1% -14.7% -15.6% 5.8% -19.9% 2.3% 1.9% -0.1% -1.7%    
   year-over-year % change 29.2% -1.2% -22.1% 50.0% 18.2% 0.4% -7.1% -3.8% -4.1% -10.6% 21.5%
Military 0.746 1.974 0.570 0.563 1.008 1.096 0.499 0.644 0.669 1.385 4.233
   month-over-month % change 145.3% 164.7% -71.1% 32.7% 78.9% 8.8% 5.6% 29.2% 3.8%    
   year-over-year % change 73.3% 766.2% 105.1% 92.2% 264.2% 251.4% 12.5% 43.9% 60.4% -14.1% 205.7%
Schools/Colleges 6.752 5.869 6.005 5.115 5.565 6.209 6.253 6.062 5.846 32.704 27.220
   month-over-month % change 65.7% -13.1% 2.3% 11.0% 8.8% 11.6% 0.8% -3.1% -3.6%    
   year-over-year % change 9.9% -28.1% -30.1% -3.8% -10.5% -18.7% 3.3% -1.2% -6.3% 11.4% -16.8%
Misc Government 0.652 0.512 0.461 0.520 0.529 0.541 0.746 0.710 0.660 3.937 2.532
   month-over-month % change 54.4% -21.5% -9.9% -9.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.4% -4.8% -7.0%    
   year-over-year % change 6.0% -45.9% -56.5% -19.3% -13.9% -38.0% -18.3% -19.5% -25.6% -13.2% -35.7%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 10.133 10.337 8.745 9.106 9.462 9.738 11.054 10.914 10.535 53.346 46.399
   month-over-month % change 28.0% 2.0% -15.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.9% -0.5% -1.3% -3.5%    
   year-over-year % change -6.4% -14.0% -34.2% -2.5% -4.4% -19.2% 2.2% 1.7% -2.2% 1.4% -13.0%
Misc Non Residential 0.462 0.434 0.367 0.474 0.438 0.421 0.620 0.599 0.580 2.851 2.223
   month-over-month % change 10.6% -6.2% -15.4% 2.2% -7.6% -3.9% -1.2% -3.3% -3.2%    
   year-over-year % change -16.3% -36.3% -38.5% -9.7% -27.9% -31.0% 4.6% 0.5% -3.1% -0.8% -22.1%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 18.254 18.475 16.266 19.472 18.333 17.665 26.982 26.248 24.240 138.945 93.157
   month-over-month % change -0.1% 1.2% -12.0% -3.0% -5.8% -3.6% -3.6% -2.7% -7.7%    
   year-over-year % change -39.6% -32.3% -59.7% -18.1% -27.2% -45.8% 3.2% 0.5% -7.1% 5.9% -33.0%
Airports 0.534 0.309 0.547 0.298 0.344 0.463 0.561 0.542 0.531 2.736 1.751
   month-over-month % change 183.1% -42.2% 77.1% 12.1% 15.2% 34.8% 3.3% -3.4% -2.0%    
   year-over-year % change 69.1% -42.8% -19.5% -41.0% -33.7% -9.5% 2.3% -1.4% -5.4% -16.3% -36.0%
Roads/Highways 5.489 7.647 6.666 4.319 5.612 6.601 5.467 5.511 5.454 27.040 27.270
   month-over-month % change 48.4% 39.3% -12.8% 9.9% 29.9% 17.6% 0.4% 0.8% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change 4.7% 7.5% -9.3% 3.0% 5.3% 0.5% 5.6% 6.3% 3.7% -0.5% 0.8%
Bridges 3.006 1.725 1.850 2.381 2.218 2.194 2.567 2.160 2.126 15.224 10.719
   month-over-month % change 56.4% -42.6% 7.2% 28.0% -6.9% -1.1% 4.6% -15.9% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change 81.3% -73.9% -18.1% 12.4% -38.1% -37.5% 28.7% -8.5% -11.3% 44.9% -29.6%
Dams/Marine 0.695 0.822 0.642 0.643 0.597 0.720 0.790 0.828 0.710 3.410 3.392
   month-over-month % change 152.6% 18.3% -21.9% 19.3% -7.0% 20.5% 4.7% 4.8% -14.3%    
   year-over-year % change 156.1% 123.8% -68.8% 96.2% 84.4% -20.0% 42.2% 54.1% 8.3% 55.6% -0.5%
Water/Sewage 3.208 2.899 2.291 2.440 2.736 2.799 2.652 2.614 2.562 13.108 12.509
   month-over-month % change 52.7% -9.6% -21.0% 3.6% 12.2% 2.3% 3.9% -1.4% -2.0%    
   year-over-year % change 60.5% -13.6% -21.3% 7.0% 10.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.7% 6.6% -5.8% -4.6%
Misc Civil 1.609 1.135 3.822 1.816 1.242 2.189 4.000 3.949 3.908 9.671 10.406
   month-over-month % change 64.0% -29.4% 236.6% -49.0% -31.6% 76.2% -0.6% -1.3% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change -15.9% -35.1% -11.5% 51.2% -19.2% -17.7% 93.2% 125.7% 97.1% -46.3% 7.6%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 14.540 14.538 15.818 11.897 12.749 14.965 16.037 15.603 15.290 71.189 66.047
   month-over-month % change 58.6% 0.0% 8.8% -4.9% 7.2% 17.4% 1.7% -2.7% -2.0%    
   year-over-year % change 27.5% -26.4% -19.2% 12.0% -7.5% -11.5% 25.1% 21.4% 15.3% -5.2% -7.2%
GRAND TOTAL 55.439 50.318 50.346 53.615 51.740 52.035 67.782 65.867 63.173 325.396 261.508
   month-over-month % change 12.1% -9.2% 0.1% -2.9% -3.5% 0.6% -1.2% -2.8% -4.1%    
   year-over-year % change -15.2% -31.3% -39.1% -5.1% -17.1% -29.5% 6.7% 3.9% -0.2% -1.5% -19.6%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 32.795 33.013 32.084 31.369 31.082 32.630 43.019 41.852 39.531 210.135 159.204
   month-over-month % change 19.5% 0.7% -2.8% -3.7% -0.9% 5.0% -1.7% -2.7% -5.5%    
   year-over-year % change -21.2% -29.8% -46.5% -8.8% -20.2% -34.1% 10.4% 7.4% 0.5% 1.9% -24.2%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 5: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-MAY 2019   JAN-MAY 2020   % Change
           
Connecticut $2,715,437,259   $1,188,631,913   -56.2%
Maine $712,410,719   $683,935,037   -4.0%
Massachusetts $5,118,427,504   $3,160,939,304   -38.2%
New Hampshire $783,469,342   $355,493,997   -54.6%
Rhode Island $442,669,846   $288,307,068   -34.9%
Vermont $197,414,702   $250,694,981   27.0%
Total New England $9,969,829,372   $5,928,002,300   -40.5%
New Jersey $2,708,436,612   $2,910,287,539   7.5%
New York $9,727,371,280   $8,187,187,189   -15.8%
Pennsylvania $8,009,740,849   $4,299,999,584   -46.3%
Total Middle Atlantic $20,445,548,741   $15,397,474,312   -24.7%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $30,415,378,113   $21,325,476,612   -29.9%
Illinois $5,615,887,793   $6,775,114,369   20.6%
Indiana $3,223,135,839   $3,407,902,463   5.7%
Michigan $3,610,380,070   $3,088,463,553   -14.5%
Ohio $5,857,367,826   $3,847,670,261   -34.3%
Wisconsin $4,705,921,810   $3,366,297,619   -28.5%
Total East North Central $23,012,693,338   $20,485,448,265   -11.0%
Iowa $2,224,378,721   $2,607,553,984   17.2%
Kansas $2,162,822,094   $1,380,459,519   -36.2%
Minnesota $5,348,394,883   $3,416,559,812   -36.1%
Missouri $2,837,166,866   $5,472,249,889   92.9%
Nebraska $2,010,962,727   $2,112,518,159   5.1%
North Dakota $641,109,294   $703,944,095   9.8%
South Dakota $951,674,323   $661,323,494   -30.5%
Total West North Central $16,176,508,908   $16,354,608,952   1.1%
TOTAL MIDWEST $39,189,202,246   $36,840,057,217   -6.0%
Delaware $540,766,605   $459,205,187   -15.1%
District of Columbia $959,640,755   $393,194,386   -59.0%
Florida $11,858,882,401   $9,444,691,391   -20.4%
Georgia $9,372,494,574   $4,623,061,118   -50.7%
Maryland $3,531,235,408   $2,939,696,462   -16.8%
North Carolina $5,741,640,858   $4,155,314,725   -27.6%
South Carolina $3,287,799,374   $2,231,745,988   -32.1%
Virginia $7,845,188,750   $4,794,850,748   -38.9%
West Virginia $765,857,943   $1,258,669,552   64.3%
Total South Atlantic $43,903,506,668   $30,300,429,557   -31.0%
Alabama $5,483,728,392   $2,195,092,560   -60.0%
Kentucky $3,250,563,988   $1,210,454,478   -62.8%
Mississippi $1,224,068,908   $1,424,209,145   16.4%
Tennessee $3,366,535,162   $3,053,396,216   -9.3%
Total East South Central $13,324,896,450   $7,883,152,399   -40.8%
Arkansas $1,243,826,815   $1,755,953,991   41.2%
Louisiana $1,794,602,005   $1,945,322,493   8.4%
Oklahoma $2,413,149,815   $1,562,712,526   -35.2%
Texas $35,028,720,108   $18,918,740,810   -46.0%
Total West South Central $40,480,298,743   $24,182,729,820   -40.3%
TOTAL SOUTH $97,708,701,861   $62,366,311,776   -36.2%
Arizona $3,625,344,272   $3,927,822,131   8.3%
Colorado $4,668,626,092   $3,221,861,208   -31.0%
Idaho $1,027,394,366   $673,558,915   -34.4%
Montana $548,698,449   $605,083,047   10.3%
Nevada $2,838,678,554   $1,667,344,661   -41.3%
New Mexico $636,606,988   $662,179,614   4.0%
Utah $2,486,739,110   $3,327,646,160   33.8%
Wyoming $431,143,007   $444,225,193   3.0%
Total Mountain $16,263,230,838   $14,529,720,929   -10.7%
Alaska $400,185,019   $415,671,899   3.9%
California $16,276,699,355   $15,081,567,796   -7.3%
Hawaii $1,165,205,890   $477,800,813   -59.0%
Oregon $2,005,782,497   $1,435,619,240   -28.4%
Washington $6,710,179,594   $6,731,731,938   0.3%
Total Pacific $26,558,052,355   $24,142,391,686   -9.1%
TOTAL WEST $42,821,283,193   $38,672,112,615   -9.7%
TOTAL U.S. $210,134,565,413   $159,203,958,220   -24.2%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

About Alex Carrick

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

     
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