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By: Alex Carrick on November 13th, 2020

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October Nonresidential Construction Starts -28% YTD but Level M/M

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

October Starts Moved Sideways

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $25.9 billion, nearly a match (-0.4%) for prior-month September’s $26.0 billion (originally reported as $24.3 billion). October’s year-to-date figure, however, remained down significantly compared with the first ten months of last year, -27.8%.

October Nonresidential Construction Starts -28% Ytd But Level M/M Graphic

Given that October starts usually feature a mild seasonal decline, due to the arrival of cooler weather, it’s good news that the latest month stayed almost level (-0.4%) with September. But it’s important to record that October 2020 was way down compared with October 2019, -41.5%.


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Click here to download the complete Construction Industry Snapshot Package - October 2020 PDF.

Often, in 2020, the individual monthly figures when compared with the same month of 2019 have fallen short with respect to mega projects of a billion dollars of more each. 2019 was an exceptional year for ultra-large project initiations. (There were 35 of them, adding to $79 billion and 15% of total nonresidential starts.) May and August 2019 were the peak months for ‘megas.’

October 2019, though, was run-of-the-mill for mega project start-ups. It included three such undertakings totaling $6.1 billion. (Two of the three were rapid transit projects.) In October 2020 starts, there is only the one mega project, a steel mill in Kentucky for $1.7 billion.

Nonresidential Building Starts More to Blame Than Engineering

The -27.8% change for total nonresidential starts to date in 2020 is due considerably more to weakness in nonresidential building work, -33.0% (i.e., down by one-third), than to the softening in engineering groundbreakings, -18.4%. Tables 1 and 2 set out the regional patterns of nonresidential building and heavy engineering/civil starts through October of this year.

In nonresidential building, the South and Northeast Regions are turning in about equally anemic performances, -39% and -38% respectively, with the West not doing so well either, -30%. The Midwest, -15%, has been least affected by the general downturn.

The large-population states that have seen the biggest drops in their nonresidential building starts year to date in 2020 have been: Washington, -57.2%; Georgia, -55.5%; Texas, -54.6%; Pennsylvania, -44.2%; Massachusetts, -40.7%; and New York, -37.1%. California and Florida have encountered declines of approximately the same magnitude, -24.0% and -22.4%. Only Missouri, +16.3%, has managed a significant increase.

In regional engineering starts year to date, the South, Northeast, and Midwest are down between one-quarter and one-fifth, but the West is hardly behind at all, -3.4%. Engineering starts are +27.1% ytd in California and +22.0% in Washington. Again, go-aheads for transit projects have been the main contributors to the ‘starts’ success. Oregon is alone among the three Pacific Coast states with a year-to-date decline in engineering starts, -11.3%.

TABLE 1: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION STARTS — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  Jan-Oct 2019   Jan-Oct 2020   % Change
           
New England $14,474,272,175   $8,693,844,325   -39.9%
Middle Atlantic $28,905,493,111   $18,205,506,432   -37.0%
NORTHEAST $43,379,765,286   $26,899,350,757   -38.0%
East North Central $31,429,917,881   $25,721,896,979   -18.2%
West North Central $18,993,655,248   $17,382,883,457   -8.5%
MIDWEST $50,423,573,129   $43,104,780,436   -14.5%
South Atlantic $56,394,205,965   $41,310,011,942   -26.7%
East South Central $17,187,072,119   $12,569,922,951   -26.9%
West South Central $64,729,440,792   $29,885,752,542   -53.8%
SOUTH $138,310,718,876   $83,765,687,435   -39.4%
Mountain $22,176,694,240   $17,098,437,614   -22.9%
Pacific $37,991,614,047   $25,102,202,232   -33.9%
WEST $60,168,308,287   $42,200,639,846   -29.9%
TOTAL U.S. $292,282,365,578   $195,970,458,474   -33.0%

Census Bureau's geographic designations. For which states are in each region, see U.S Regional Key below.

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 2: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL
HEAVY ENGINEERING/CIVIL CONSTRUCTION STARTS — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  Jan-Oct 2019   Jan-Oct 2020   % Change
           
New England $5,551,956,386   $4,828,623,060   -13.0%
Middle Atlantic $15,017,544,731   $11,638,419,704   -22.5%
NORTHEAST $20,569,501,117   $16,467,042,764   -19.9%
East North Central $24,411,599,155   $19,223,821,539   -21.3%
West North Central $16,380,440,224   $13,539,965,939   -17.3%
MIDWEST $40,792,039,379   $32,763,787,478   -19.7%
South Atlantic $32,890,755,130   $20,119,394,150   -38.8%
East South Central $6,002,860,611   $5,363,652,956   -10.6%
West South Central $23,989,943,097   $21,193,876,672   -11.7%
SOUTH $62,883,558,838   $46,676,923,778   -25.8%
Mountain $15,757,066,928   $9,929,435,965   -37.0%
Pacific $20,526,246,987   $25,102,853,809   22.3%
WEST $36,283,313,915   $35,032,289,774   -3.4%
TOTAL U.S. $160,528,413,249   $130,940,043,794   -18.4%

Census Bureau's geographic designations. For which states are in each region, see U.S Regional Key below.

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

U.S. REGIONAL KEY (Census Bureau)        
           
Northeast:  New England: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT;    
  Middle Atlantic: NY, NJ, PA.      
South:  South Atlantic: DE, MD, DC, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL;  
  East South Central:  KY, TN, AL, MS;      
  West South Central: AR, LA, OK, TX.      
Midwest:  East North Central: OH, MI, IN, WI, IL;    
  West North Central: MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS.    
West:  Mountain: MT, WY, CO, NM, ID, UT, AZ, NV;  
  Pacific: WA, OR, CA, AK, HI.    

A Slow Patch for GDP ‘til March?

With coronavirus infections back in full swing, and economy reopenings being sideswiped, the earlier surge in jobs restoration has become more muted. Table 4 records jobs claw-back ratios for the total economy and major subsectors. The claw-back ratio is the number of jobs recovered since April versus the outsized number of jobs lost between February and April, when COVID-19 first struck and stay-at-home directives brought much of economic activity to a standstill.

The jobs-recovery ratio is still only half (50.9%). It will need to rise to at least 90% before there will be significantly greater confidence the economy is on solid footing once again. Speaking of 90%, the drug company, Pfizer, has announced development of a coronavirus vaccine that is effective to that degree and which may be available in abundant supply by March 2021, provided further testing raises no alarms.

There are sound reasons to be more optimistic concerning the second quarter of next year and onward. Achieving decent GDP growth in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, however, will continue to be challenging. The U.S. construction sector, which was largely judged to be ‘essential’ in the Spring, maintained workflows and work forces better than most other sectors. From Graph 1, the year-over-year record of employment in construction, at -2.6%, is presently second-best (technically, second least-negative) among all sectors, trailing only financial activities, -0.9%.  

Also, worth noting, is that year-over-year retail sales by building material suppliers never fell into negative territory earlier this year and are continuing to be buoyant, +19% in September. The nearly one-fifth increase in building material sales has been supported by DIY work, good single-family housing starts and an accompanying run-up in softwood lumber prices, +80% year over year.  

Table 3: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ October 2020

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ October 2020 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 1: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − October 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − October 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted  payroll data) Chart
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)).
Chart: ConstructConnect.
Graph 2: U.S. Employment - % Change Y/Y
Based on seasonally adjusted (SA) data
U.S. Employment - % Change Y/Y Based on seasonally adjusted (SA) data Chart
The latest data points are for October, 2020.
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor).
Chart: ConstructConnect.
Graph 3: U.S. Construction Employment (SA) & Unemployment Rate (NSA)
U.S. Employment - % Change Y/Y Based on seasonally adjusted (SA) data Chart
Current through October, 2020. SA is seasonally adjusted / NSA is not seasonally adjusted.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Sifting the Data to Find Good News Among Type-Of-Structure Subcategories

The month-over-month (m/m) hold-the-line performance (-0.4%) of total nonresidential starts in October resulted from a combination of increases in the industrial (+36.5%), engineering/civil (+6.3%) and institutional (+2.5%) subcategories that couldn’t quite withstand the pullback that took place in commercial (-21.0%).

The -41.5% fall in total nonresidential construction starts in October of this year versus October of last year (y/y) was widespread among subcategories: commercial, -52.0%; engineering, -39.7%; institutional, -34.7%; and industrial, -31.8%.

Year to date (ytd) total nonresidential starts have also been led lower by all the major type-of-structure subcategories, with industrial at -68.5%; commercial, -33.8%; engineering, -18.4%; and institutional, -16.4%.

‘Warehouse’ and ‘Military’ Starts Warrant Attention

The ‘school/college’ subcategory (with a 59% share) is dominant within institutional work, while the ‘road/highway’ subcategory (with a 42% share) is ‘king’ in engineering. Within total nonresidential, those two subcategories account for 17.3% and 16.7% respectively. Added together, with dollar values of $56.6 billion and $54.5 billion, they are one-third of total nonresidential. In October, the three metrics for educational facility starts were -10.0% m/m, -27.2% y/y, and -14.4% ytd. For the ‘road/highway’ subcategory, the results were -5.6% y/y and -4.3% ytd, but +21.7% m/m.

Looking at some other major subcategories, October’s starts statistics for ‘water/sewage’ were -27.4% m/m and -6.1% y/y, but +4.0% ytd. ‘Hospitals/clinics’ were -59.4% y/y and -44.3% ytd, but +59.1% m/m.

‘Private office buildings’ were -12.0% m/m, -70.3% y/y, and -39.5% ytd. ‘Retail/shopping’ was -24.5% m/m, -17.6% y/y, and -29.6% ytd. And ‘hotels/motels’ were -78.9% y/y and -53.0% ytd, but +6.4% m/m.

Best of all, though, was the ‘warehouse’ subcategory, where all three metrics in October were positive: +8.8% m/m,+2.7% y/y, and +3.1% ytd.

As a notable aside, the dollar volume of ‘warehouse’ starts to date in 2020 ($19.0 billion) is greater than for ‘private office building’ starts ($17.7 billion). The shift to shopping over the Internet, accelerated by the pandemic, has really brought forward the construction of distribution and fulfillment centers.

Mention should also be made of ‘military’ starts so far in 2020: +4.1% m/m, +2.3% y/y, and +85.9% ytd.   

Many of the Trend Graphs are Plunging Rather Steeply

The trend graphs (see Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - October 2020) showcase 12-month moving average ‘starts’ trend lines for a variety of type-of-structure subcategories. Presently, it’s easy to summarize what is happening. All the curves, with the single exception of ‘water/sewage’, are heading downwards. As for the severity of the descents, the ‘roads/highways’ curve is gently dipping but many of the others (e.g., ‘private office buildings,’ ‘retail,’ and ‘miscellaneous civil’) are plunging rather steeply.     

Construction Workers Fail to Catch Earnings Express Train

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel), ‘all-jobs’ earnings y/y in October were +4.5% hourly and +5.7% weekly. Construction workers realized earnings gains of +2.8% hourly and +1.5% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding bosses), October’s ‘all jobs’ pay hikes were +4.5% hourly and +6.3% weekly. Again, workers in construction were left standing at the station when the express train pulled out. They received just +2.4% hourly and +1.1% weekly.  

Among PPI Construction Costing Series: 2 Sharp Climbs and 1 Descent

September  2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ +5.0% (up from August’s +2.0%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +3.7% (higher than August’s +1.3%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +1.6% (slower than the previous month’s +1.8%). Material costs are heating up (e.g., softwood lumber’s PPI in September was +81.2% y/y), but with fewer projects available for bidding, it would seem margins are being squeezed.

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

‘Grand Total’ Starts -19.7% Ytd

From Table 6 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in October 2020 were -5.8% m/m, -13.5% y/y, and -5.0% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were -6.6% m/m, -60.6% y/y, and -27.1% ytd. Single-family starts were -5.6% m/m, +17.4% y/y, and +5.7% ytd. Note that the ‘total' residential figure of -5.0% ytd (all based in the ‘multi-family segment) barely registers as a decline next to the -18.4% result for engineering and the -33.0% negative turn for nonresidential buildings. ‘Grand Total’ construction starts in the tenth month of this year were -3.1% m/m, -30.5% y/y, and -19.7% ytd.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or re-bid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - October 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - October 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - October 2020.

TABLE 4: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
OCTOBER 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-OCT 20 Jan-OCT 20 vs    OCT 20 vs   OCT 20 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-OCT 19   OCT 19   SEP 20
             
Hotel/Motel 8.760 -53.0%   -78.9%   6.4%
Retail 10.074 -29.6%   -17.6%   -24.5%
Parking Garage 1.564 -43.3%   -68.5%   -39.3%
Amusement 5.208 -20.1%   -25.2%   33.9%
Private Office  17.741 -39.5%   -70.3%   -12.0%
Government Office 9.433 -4.7%   -35.0%   -59.2%
Laboratory 1.513 -21.4%   -8.6%   111.7%
Warehouse 18.952 3.1%   2.7%   8.8%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 6.178 -65.9%   -75.8%   -57.9%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 79.424 -33.8%   -52.0%   -21.0%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 16.146 -68.5%   -31.8%   36.5%
             
Religious 1.245 -20.1%   12.2%   0.7%
Hospital/Clinic 9.495 -44.3%   -59.4%   59.1%
Nursing/Assisted Living 5.410 -35.8%   -31.6%   22.9%
Library/Museum 3.380 -4.6%   -74.2%   -4.7%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 6.161 5.5%   -12.4%   6.2%
Military 7.737 85.9%   2.3%   4.1%
School/College 56.601 -14.4%   -27.2%   -10.0%
Miscellaneous Medical 5.846 -27.6%   -50.2%   2.2%
INSTITUTIONAL 95.875 -16.4%   -34.7%   2.5%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 4.526 -28.5%   -54.7%   7.4%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 195.970 -33.0%   -42.6%   -4.5%
             
Airport 5.235 -20.8%   -55.6%   -41.1%
Road/Highway 54.501 -4.3%   -5.6%   21.7%
Bridge 18.951 -28.9%   -50.4%   22.6%
Dam/Marine 6.853 -3.3%   0.9%   155.6%
Water/Sewage 26.956 4.0%   -6.1%   -27.4%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 18.444 -50.5%   -85.1%   16.1%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 130.940 -18.4%   -39.7%   6.3%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 326.911 -27.8%   -41.5%   -0.4%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 5: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – OCTOBER 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Oct 20 Jan-Oct 20 vs     Oct 20 vs Oct 20 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Oct 19     Oct 19 Sep 20
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     130.940 -18.4%     -39.7% 6.3%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 195.970 -33.0%     -42.6% -4.5%
RESIDENTIAL   236.614 -5.0%     -13.5% -5.8%
GRAND TOTAL   563.524 -19.7%     -30.5% -3.1%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 5.235 -20.8%     -55.6% -41.1%
    All Other Civil 15.530 -37.3%     -85.1% 19.9%
    Bridges 18.951 -28.9%     -50.4% 22.6%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 6.853 -3.3%     0.9% 155.6%
    Power Infrastructure 2.914 -76.7%     -84.9% -8.6%
    Roads 54.501 -4.3%     -5.6% 21.7%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 26.956 4.0%     -6.1% -27.4%
CIVIL     130.940 -18.4%     -39.7% 6.3%
    Offices (private) 17.741 -39.5%     -70.3% -12.0%
    Parking Garages 1.564 -43.3%     -68.5% -39.3%
    Transportation Terminals 2.121 -77.3%     -66.3% -66.1%
  Commercial (small subset) 21.426 -48.3%     -69.8% -27.5%
    Amusement 5.208 -20.1%     -25.2% 33.9%
    Libraries / Museums 3.380 -4.6%     -74.2% -4.7%
    Religious 1.245 -20.1%     12.2% 0.7%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 4.057 -53.7%     -82.6% -36.9%
  Community 13.890 -31.9%     -53.5% 9.8%
    College / University 13.974 -16.1%     -52.3% -38.1%
    Elementary / Pre School 17.361 -8.8%     -28.2% 1.2%
    Jr / Sr High School 23.582 -17.8%     4.4% 26.9%
    Special / Vocational 1.685 -2.5%     15.3% -58.8%
  Educational 56.601 -14.4%     -27.2% -10.0%
    Courthouses 1.466 6.4%     -47.8% -51.2%
    Fire and Police Stations 2.760 1.5%     -1.7% 48.5%
    Government Offices 9.433 -4.7%     -35.0% -59.2%
    Prisons 1.935 11.1%     -14.2% -10.5%
  Government 15.594 -0.9%     -25.8% -42.0%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 1.513 -21.4%     -8.6% 111.7%
    Manufacturing 16.146 -68.5%     -31.8% 36.5%
    Warehouses 18.952 3.1%     2.7% 8.8%
  Industrial 36.611 -48.9%     -20.0% 24.4%
    Hospitals / Clinics 9.495 -44.3%     -59.4% 59.1%
    Medical Misc. 5.846 -27.6%     -50.2% 2.2%
    Nursing Homes 5.410 -35.8%     -31.6% 22.9%
  Medical   20.751 -38.1%     -51.4% 31.1%
  Military   7.737 85.9%     2.3% 4.1%
    Hotels 8.760 -53.0%     -78.9% 6.4%
    Retail Misc. 4.526 -28.5%     -54.7% 7.4%
    Shopping 10.074 -29.6%     -17.6% -24.5%
  Retail   23.360 -40.6%     -59.6% -9.5%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 195.970 -33.0%     -42.6% -4.5%
    Multi-Family 59.055 -27.1%     -60.6% -6.6%
    Single-Family 177.559 5.7%     17.4% -5.6%
RESIDENTIAL   236.614 -5.0%     -13.5% -5.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL 326.911 -27.8%     -41.5% -0.4%
GRAND TOTAL   563.524 -19.7%     -30.5% -3.1%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – OCTOBER 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-OCT JAN-OCT
  AUG 20 SEP 20 OCT 20 AUG 20 SEP 20 OCT 20 AUG 20 SEP 20 OCT 20 2019 2020
                       
Single Family 20.275 21.391 20.193 19.716 20.647 20.619 16.777 17.117 17.366 167.942 177.559
   month-over-month % change 0.0% 5.5% -5.6% 10.2% 4.7% -0.1% 1.3% 2.0% 1.5%    
   year-over-year % change 14.2% 23.5% 17.4% 9.1% 16.0% 18.4% 4.1% 5.9% 7.5% -4.8% 5.7%
Apartment 5.427 4.751 4.438 6.186 5.478 4.872 7.387 6.978 6.409 81.040 59.055
   month-over-month % change -13.3% -12.5% -6.6% -2.1% -11.4% -11.1% -4.5% -5.5% -8.2%    
   year-over-year % change -43.3% -50.8% -60.6% -22.9% -36.1% -52.1% -4.4% -11.4% -20.5% 3.2% -27.1%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 25.701 26.142 24.631 25.902 26.125 25.491 24.164 24.094 23.775 248.982 236.614
   month-over-month % change -3.1% 1.7% -5.8% 7.0% 0.9% -2.4% -0.6% -0.3% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change -5.9% -3.1% -13.5% -0.7% -1.0% -7.6% 1.3% 0.2% -1.8% -2.4% -5.0%
Hotel/Motel 0.636 0.442 0.471 0.614 0.605 0.517 1.394 1.280 1.133 18.654 8.760
   month-over-month % change -13.7% -30.5% 6.4% 13.9% -1.3% -14.7% -4.6% -8.2% -11.5%    
   year-over-year % change -55.8% -75.5% -78.9% -62.0% -62.0% -71.7% -26.3% -31.0% -39.0% -17.6% -53.0%
Retail 1.132 0.982 0.742 1.029 1.023 0.952 1.068 1.035 1.022 14.318 10.074
   month-over-month % change 18.5% -13.3% -24.5% 6.2% -0.5% -6.9% -1.7% -3.1% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change -16.7% -28.6% -17.6% -28.9% -21.9% -21.4% -25.5% -26.7% -26.4% -10.2% -29.6%
Parking Garages 0.184 0.140 0.085 0.154 0.144 0.136 0.176 0.179 0.164 2.760 1.564
   month-over-month % change 73.5% -24.2% -39.3% -7.9% -6.7% -5.0% -1.9% 2.1% -8.6%    
   year-over-year % change -18.5% 47.9% -68.5% -49.7% -36.3% -30.6% -39.0% -37.4% -44.0% 30.8% -43.3%
Amusement 0.330 0.469 0.628 0.396 0.371 0.476 0.546 0.540 0.523 6.520 5.208
   month-over-month % change 5.0% 41.9% 33.9% -4.6% -6.2% 28.1% -2.4% -1.0% -3.3%    
   year-over-year % change -33.2% -12.8% -25.2% -51.5% -50.5% -23.8% -23.0% -22.5% -21.6% -7.8% -20.1%
Office 2.283 1.220 1.073 1.716 1.562 1.525 2.459 2.291 2.079 29.325 17.741
   month-over-month % change 92.8% -46.6% -12.0% 33.3% -8.9% -2.4% -0.9% -6.8% -9.2%    
   year-over-year % change -10.5% -62.3% -70.3% -51.5% -49.0% -51.3% -4.8% -15.7% -25.5% 14.0% -39.5%
Governmental Offices 0.951 1.746 0.712 0.941 1.235 1.137 0.903 0.971 0.939 9.895 9.433
   month-over-month % change -5.5% 83.6% -59.2% 6.1% 31.3% -7.9% -2.1% 7.6% -3.3%    
   year-over-year % change -19.3% 88.1% -35.0% -28.9% -3.3% 6.5% -9.6% -0.3% -5.1% 9.5% -4.7%
Laboratories 0.125 0.042 0.089 0.161 0.106 0.085 0.191 0.168 0.167 1.925 1.513
   month-over-month % change -16.8% -66.5% 111.7% 11.6% -34.2% -19.4% -10.6% -12.3% -0.4%    
   year-over-year % change -68.5% -87.1% -8.6% -19.9% -61.4% -68.8% -2.5% -16.0% -11.6% -24.9% -21.4%
Warehouse 2.001 1.380 1.502 1.905 1.633 1.628 1.956 1.926 1.930 18.379 18.952
   month-over-month % change 31.7% -31.0% 8.8% 0.4% -14.3% -0.3% -2.6% -1.5% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change -23.8% -20.2% 2.7% -10.5% -16.8% -16.0% 5.9% 5.5% 9.0% -2.7% 3.1%
Misc Commercial 0.681 0.620 0.261 0.758 0.746 0.521 0.997 0.788 0.720 18.125 6.178
   month-over-month % change -27.3% -9.0% -57.9% 12.2% -1.6% -30.2% -2.5% -21.0% -8.7%    
   year-over-year % change -31.3% -80.2% -75.8% -46.9% -67.6% -70.0% -26.1% -49.7% -55.3% 63.2% -65.9%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 8.325 7.042 5.563 7.673 7.426 6.977 9.689 9.179 8.677 119.901 79.424
   month-over-month % change 20.5% -15.4% -21.0% 9.9% -3.2% -6.1% -2.5% -5.3% -5.5%    
   year-over-year % change -26.1% -46.5% -52.0% -40.1% -41.8% -41.9% -14.2% -20.4% -24.9% 4.2% -33.8%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 3.210 1.458 1.990 1.611 1.887 2.219 1.753 1.797 1.720 51.319 16.146
   month-over-month % change 223.3% -54.6% 36.5% 26.0% 17.1% 17.6% -30.4% 2.5% -4.3%    
   year-over-year % change -74.1% 56.1% -31.8% -77.5% -73.6% -59.1% -63.4% -61.6% -63.1% 64.9% -68.5%
Religious 0.135 0.109 0.110 0.103 0.109 0.118 0.133 0.130 0.131 1.558 1.245
   month-over-month % change 61.7% -19.4% 0.7% 4.1% 5.6% 8.0% -1.5% -2.2% 0.8%    
   year-over-year % change -15.3% -24.1% 12.2% -39.2% -26.3% -11.7% -21.8% -22.6% -20.4% -12.0% -20.1%
Hosptials/Clinics 0.670 0.615 0.978 0.893 0.659 0.754 1.389 1.307 1.187 17.033 9.495
   month-over-month % change -3.3% -8.3% 59.1% -15.1% -26.1% 14.4% -9.1% -6.0% -9.1%    
   year-over-year % change -71.3% -61.7% -59.4% -63.0% -71.4% -64.4% -9.8% -18.3% -30.0% 25.6% -44.3%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.692 0.513 0.630 0.490 0.508 0.612 0.618 0.573 0.548 8.429 5.410
   month-over-month % change 117.4% -25.9% 22.9% 21.1% 3.6% 20.5% 4.2% -7.3% -4.2%    
   year-over-year % change 76.3% -51.4% -31.6% -12.9% -28.3% -22.5% -26.2% -33.6% -35.4% -4.8% -35.8%
Libraries/Museums 0.223 0.153 0.146 0.255 0.199 0.174 0.390 0.361 0.326 3.543 3.380
   month-over-month % change 1.2% -31.2% -4.7% -14.2% -22.2% -12.4% 2.4% -7.6% -9.7%    
   year-over-year % change 95.5% -69.8% -74.2% -18.3% -45.4% -56.1% 34.1% 16.1% 0.1% 48.4% -4.6%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.834 0.622 0.660 0.649 0.675 0.705 0.644 0.613 0.605 5.839 6.161
   month-over-month % change 46.3% -25.4% 6.2% 27.7% 4.0% 4.5% 3.0% -4.9% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change 36.5% -37.9% -12.4% 18.6% -0.3% -10.6% 11.4% -2.6% -0.3% -12.4% 5.5%
Military 0.523 0.972 1.012 0.589 0.696 0.836 0.706 0.725 0.727 4.161 7.737
   month-over-month % change -11.9% 85.9% 4.1% 1.6% 18.2% 20.0% 2.3% 2.7% 0.3%    
   year-over-year % change 58.6% 31.1% 2.3% 68.9% 46.2% 21.7% 75.0% 71.0% 66.3% 0.4% 85.9%
Schools/Colleges 5.137 3.806 3.426 6.670 4.865 4.123 5.698 5.636 5.530 66.098 56.601
   month-over-month % change -9.1% -25.9% -10.0% -9.6% -27.1% -15.3% -1.0% -1.1% -1.9%    
   year-over-year % change -12.0% -16.3% -27.2% -17.1% -15.1% -18.0% -9.4% -9.9% -11.8% 6.0% -14.4%
Misc Government 0.467 0.450 0.460 0.453 0.454 0.459 0.653 0.632 0.593 8.070 5.846
   month-over-month % change 4.8% -3.7% 2.2% -18.6% 0.2% 1.0% -4.3% -3.3% -6.1%    
   year-over-year % change -43.2% -36.2% -50.2% -45.7% -36.5% -43.8% -22.3% -20.3% -25.9% -17.0% -27.6%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 8.681 7.239 7.423 10.103 8.166 7.781 10.232 9.977 9.648 114.731 95.875
   month-over-month % change 1.2% -16.6% 2.5% -7.1% -19.2% -4.7% -1.5% -2.5% -3.3%    
   year-over-year % change -18.1% -29.8% -34.7% -23.7% -26.6% -27.7% -6.6% -9.6% -13.5% 4.8% -16.4%
Misc Non Residential 0.479 0.448 0.481 0.443 0.429 0.470 0.549 0.537 0.488 6.332 4.526
   month-over-month % change 32.8% -6.5% 7.4% 7.6% -3.1% 9.4% -1.9% -2.2% -9.0%    
   year-over-year % change -21.0% -24.8% -54.7% -27.0% -28.6% -37.8% -4.1% -6.6% -19.3% 0.9% -28.5%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 20.696 16.186 15.457 19.830 17.908 17.446 22.224 21.490 20.532 292.282 195.970
   month-over-month % change 22.9% -21.8% -4.5% 1.5% -9.7% -2.6% -5.0% -3.3% -4.5%    
   year-over-year % change -40.7% -35.2% -42.6% -41.3% -43.4% -39.7% -19.5% -22.8% -26.6% 11.6% -33.0%
Airports 0.733 0.726 0.428 0.768 0.720 0.629 0.535 0.546 0.501 6.610 5.235
   month-over-month % change 4.5% -0.9% -41.1% 9.0% -6.2% -12.7% 0.8% 2.1% -8.2%    
   year-over-year % change 7.2% 22.5% -55.6% -0.6% -6.8% -15.8% -13.4% -12.0% -18.1% 1.2% -20.8%
Roads/Highways 5.204 3.855 4.692 6.089 5.004 4.583 5.348 5.260 5.237 56.978 54.501
   month-over-month % change -12.6% -25.9% 21.7% -8.2% -17.8% -8.4% -0.5% -1.6% -0.4%    
   year-over-year % change -5.3% -21.5% -5.6% -8.9% -17.9% -10.6% 1.3% -1.1% -2.7% 2.3% -4.3%
Bridges 1.127 0.933 1.144 1.997 1.404 1.068 2.124 1.971 1.874 26.649 18.951
   month-over-month % change -47.6% -17.2% 22.6% -12.8% -29.7% -23.9% -3.5% -7.2% -4.9%    
   year-over-year % change -45.2% -66.4% -50.4% -5.5% -38.4% -55.1% -13.9% -20.6% -25.4% 29.7% -28.9%
Dams/Marine 0.824 0.405 1.035 0.643 0.556 0.755 0.704 0.692 0.693 7.084 6.853
   month-over-month % change 88.0% -50.9% 155.6% -2.6% -13.5% 35.8% 4.7% -1.6% 0.1%    
   year-over-year % change 84.3% -25.4% 0.9% -8.4% 8.0% 12.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.9% 27.2% -3.3%
Water/Sewage 2.672 3.189 2.316 2.987 2.906 2.726 2.689 2.734 2.722 25.921 26.956
   month-over-month % change -6.5% 19.4% -27.4% 4.6% -2.7% -6.2% 1.8% 1.7% -0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 27.8% 20.4% -6.1% 16.4% 12.1% 13.5% 9.8% 8.9% 8.3% 2.0% 4.0%
Misc Civil 1.976 0.719 0.835 2.123 1.739 1.177 2.962 2.675 2.279 37.287 18.444
   month-over-month % change -21.7% -63.6% 16.1% -22.2% -18.1% -32.3% -17.8% -9.7% -14.8%    
   year-over-year % change -79.6% -82.7% -85.1% -64.3% -66.1% -81.8% -4.2% -16.9% -34.2% 33.9% -50.5%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 12.536 9.827 10.450 14.607 12.329 10.938 14.362 13.878 13.305 160.528 130.940
   month-over-month % change -14.3% -21.6% 6.3% -8.0% -15.6% -11.3% -4.4% -3.4% -4.1%    
   year-over-year % change -38.7% -37.1% -39.7% -22.3% -29.0% -38.6% -1.7% -6.4% -12.2% 13.4% -18.4%
GRAND TOTAL 58.933 52.155 50.538 60.340 56.363 53.875 60.750 59.462 57.613 701.792 563.524
   month-over-month % change 1.6% -11.5% -3.1% 1.2% -6.6% -4.4% -3.1% -2.1% -3.1%    
   year-over-year % change -28.7% -22.9% -30.5% -23.3% -25.2% -27.5% -8.0% -10.9% -14.5% 6.6% -19.7%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 33.232 26.013 25.907 34.437 30.237 28.384 36.586 35.368 33.838 452.811 326.911
   month-over-month % change 5.6% -21.7% -0.4% -2.8% -12.2% -6.1% -4.8% -3.3% -4.3%    
   year-over-year % change -39.9% -36.0% -41.5% -34.5% -38.3% -39.3% -13.3% -17.1% -21.6% 12.2% -27.8%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-oct 2019   JAN-oct 2020   % Change
           
Connecticut $4,518,857,518   $2,984,537,083   -34.0%
Maine $1,726,034,492   $1,362,127,573   -21.1%
Massachusetts $11,219,511,431   $7,314,870,228   -34.8%
New Hampshire $1,419,136,541   $723,029,084   -49.1%
Rhode Island $785,546,861   $672,830,016   -14.3%
Vermont $357,141,718   $465,073,401   30.2%
Total New England $20,026,228,561   $13,522,467,385   -32.5%
New Jersey $6,850,976,533   $6,017,840,536   -12.2%
New York $23,265,029,457   $15,280,147,653   -34.3%
Pennsylvania $13,807,031,852   $8,545,937,947   -38.1%
Total Middle Atlantic $43,923,037,842   $29,843,926,136   -32.1%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $63,949,266,403   $43,366,393,521   -32.2%
Illinois $14,351,524,890   $12,206,980,998   -14.9%
Indiana $7,198,601,526   $6,912,603,740   -4.0%
Michigan $12,036,323,508   $6,538,711,821   -45.7%
Ohio $12,628,508,709   $11,563,386,695   -8.4%
Wisconsin $9,626,558,403   $7,724,035,264   -19.8%
Total East North Central $55,841,517,036   $44,945,718,518   -19.5%
Iowa $5,471,560,027   $4,565,817,882   -16.6%
Kansas $4,328,786,629   $3,873,109,974   -10.5%
Minnesota $9,932,637,531   $7,160,314,139   -27.9%
Missouri $7,386,716,814   $8,260,148,342   11.8%
Nebraska $3,321,844,986   $3,770,302,770   13.5%
North Dakota $2,459,499,409   $2,232,842,458   -9.2%
South Dakota $2,473,050,076   $1,060,313,831   -57.1%
Total West North Central $35,374,095,472   $30,922,849,396   -12.6%
TOTAL MIDWEST $91,215,612,508   $75,868,567,914   -16.8%
Delaware $1,014,919,570   $1,113,710,650   9.7%
District of Columbia $1,853,814,603   $807,059,953   -56.5%
Florida $29,229,715,551   $19,158,079,333   -34.5%
Georgia $16,403,253,495   $9,353,964,166   -43.0%
Maryland $6,303,880,442   $5,992,813,649   -4.9%
North Carolina $13,920,569,793   $8,627,513,168   -38.0%
South Carolina $5,787,159,435   $4,632,071,490   -20.0%
Virginia $13,304,979,074   $9,559,521,167   -28.2%
West Virginia $1,466,669,132   $2,184,672,516   49.0%
Total South Atlantic $89,284,961,095   $61,429,406,092   -31.2%
Alabama $7,485,109,534   $4,218,917,904   -43.6%
Kentucky $5,669,036,663   $4,686,035,522   -17.3%
Mississippi $2,379,083,164   $2,485,532,602   4.5%
Tennessee $7,656,703,369   $6,543,089,879   -14.5%
Total East South Central $23,189,932,730   $17,933,575,907   -22.7%
Arkansas $3,000,543,117   $3,838,745,510   27.9%
Louisiana $7,993,881,552   $3,916,767,343   -51.0%
Oklahoma $4,702,130,839   $3,629,960,480   -22.8%
Texas $73,022,828,381   $39,694,155,881   -45.6%
Total West South Central $88,719,383,889   $51,079,629,214   -42.4%
TOTAL SOUTH $201,194,277,714   $130,442,611,213   -35.2%
Arizona $8,345,910,662   $6,583,292,684   -21.1%
Colorado $9,266,453,431   $6,082,603,370   -34.4%
Idaho $2,002,479,711   $1,283,017,785   -35.9%
Montana $1,407,892,271   $1,435,660,832   2.0%
Nevada $5,697,467,042   $3,020,302,065   -47.0%
New Mexico $2,420,927,939   $2,111,084,662   -12.8%
Utah $4,709,980,627   $5,666,784,874   20.3%
Wyoming $4,082,649,485   $845,127,307   -79.3%
Total Mountain $37,933,761,168   $27,027,873,579   -28.7%
Alaska $954,370,596   $1,274,951,915   33.6%
California $33,642,217,167   $31,828,948,828   -5.4%
Hawaii $1,912,298,767   $1,705,899,753   -10.8%
Oregon $4,586,609,771   $3,644,134,222   -20.5%
Washington $17,422,364,733   $11,751,121,323   -32.6%
Total Pacific $58,517,861,034   $50,205,056,041   -14.2%
TOTAL WEST $96,451,622,202   $77,232,929,620   -19.9%
TOTAL U.S. $452,810,778,827   $326,910,502,268   -27.8%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.


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About Alex Carrick

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

     
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