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November’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +2% M/M, -8% Y/Y, & -2% YTD Blog Feature

By: Alex Carrick, Chief Economist on December 15th, 2021

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November’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +2% M/M, -8% Y/Y, & -2% YTD

November Light on Megaprojects

ConstructConnect announced today that November 2021's volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $30.4 billion (see shaded green box, bottom of Table 8 below), an increase of +1.7% compared with October 2021's level of $29.9 billion (originally reported as $28.8 billion).

November's Nonresidential Construction Starts -26% M/M, -9% Y/Y & -2% YTD Graphic

Compared with November 2020, the latest month’s nonresidential starts were -8.0%. On a year-to-date basis, they were -1.6%. GRAND TOTAL starts in November 2021 (i.e., including residential activity) were +2.4% m/m, -3.5% y/y, and +5.6% ytd.

NNovember’s Nonresidential Construction Starts +2% M/M, -8% Y/Y & -2% YTD Graphic
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Click here to download the complete Construction Industry Snapshot Package - November 2021 PDF.

November this year managed to avoid the usual modest decline in total starts due to seasonality, i.e., the arrival of colder weather heading into winter. Another feature of the latest month was that it was light in mega-sized projects. The only billion-dollar-plus project to break ground in November 2021 was Methanex Corp’s Geismar 3 methanol plant in Louisiana, south of Baton Rouge. Methanol is a member of the alcohol family, is a liquid, and has multiple important industrial uses. It’s not to be confused with methane which, as an emission of natural gas or animal waste, is largely viewed as an environmental villain.

Starts in November of last year included two megaprojects adding to $4.0 billion, an office building in New York, at One Madison Avenue, and I-635 roadway work in Dallas, Texas.   

Some Convergence, Residential Versus Nonresidential

The large discrepancies in ConstructConnect’s starts statistics between the three major types of structure that were evident earlier this year—with residential super strong, nonresidential buildings quite weak, and engineering/civil on an even keel—are gradually diminishing.

Year to date, residential starts (+15.5%) are still up to a decent degree but not by as much as previously, nonresidential building starts (-3.9%) remain down but not as severely, and engineering starts (+2.1%) are doing a little better than flat.  

On a month-to-month basis in November, residential starts were +3.1%, nonresidential building starts, +0.5%,and engineering, +3.7%.   

Improving Trend in Trailing 12-Month Starts

Other statistics often beloved by analysts are trailing twelve-month (TTM) results and these are set out for all the various type-of-structure categories in Table 8 below. Grand Total TTM starts in November on a month-to-month basis were -0.3%, compared with -0.7% in October and +1.2% in September. On a year-over-year basis in November, Grand Total TTM starts were +3.3% versus +2.8% in October and +2.0% in September. The improving trend seen in those last three percentage changes speaks of a construction marketplace that is on the mend.  

Census Bureau’s PIP Numbers Boosted by Residential

‘Starts’ compile the total estimated dollar value and square footage of all projects on which ground is broken in any given month. They lead, by nine months to as much as two years, put-in-place (PIP) statistics which are analogous to work-in-progress payments as the building of structures proceeds to completion.

PIP numbers cover the ‘universe’ of construction, new plus all manner of renovation activity, with residential traditionally making up two-fifths (about 40%) of the total and nonresidential, three-fifths (i.e., the bigger portion, at around 60%). Presently, though, according to the Census Bureau’s October 2021 not-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) PIP numbers for the total United States, the year-to-date mix has shifted dramatically. The residential to nonresidential relationship has become approximately half and half (i.e., 49.3%-to-50.7% respectively). The Census Bureau’s October 2021 NSA ytd PIP results are +7.5% for total; +23.8%, residential; and -4.7%, nonresidential (i.e., nonresidential buildings plus engineering).

PIP numbers, being more spread out, have smaller peak-over-trough percent-change amplitudes than the ‘starts’ series. As an additional valuable service for clients and powered by its extensive ‘starts’ database, ConstructConnect, in partnership with Oxford Economics, a world-leader in econometric modeling, has developed put-in-place construction statistics by types of structure for U.S. states, cities and counties, ‘actuals’ and forecasts. ConstructConnect’s PIP numbers are being released quarterly and are featured in a separate reporting system.

Construction Jobs +133,000 Year to Date

The construction sector has been on a hiring roll over the last three months. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the total number of onsite jobs advanced by +35,000 in September, +43,000 in October, and +31,000 in November. Those three months have accounted for +109,000 of the +133,000 jobs increase year to date. A similar number of new jobs (+100,000) will need to be generated, however, before total employment in the sector will return to its February 2020 pre-pandemic level.  

The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate in construction in the latest month was 4.7%, up from 4.0% in October, but well below the 7.3% rate for November of 2020. On a year-over-year basis, construction employment is now +2.4%, which isn’t far off manufacturing’s +2.9% but is only half of the gain achieved by the private services-providing sector, +4.8%. The ‘all jobs’ increase is +4.1% y/y. ‘Leisure and hospitality’ employment is +14.3% y/y

Other corners of the economy with close ties to construction have seen the following year over year changes in employment: machinery and equipment rental and leasing, +7.7%; architectural and engineering services, +4.9%; real estate firms, +4.2%; oil and gas extraction, +0.3%; cement and concrete product manufacturing, -1.3%; and building material and supplies dealers, -2.9%. The solid increase of +4.9% y/y for employment with project design firms augurs well for eventual sitework employment resulting from the lead-lag relationship.

Graph 1: Change in Level of U.S. Construction Employment, Month to Month (M/M) −
Total & by Categories - November 2021

Hiring in the U.S. construction sector has been back on a roll over the last three months with, not exceptional, but solid nonetheless, increases in employment (Sept, +35,000 jobs; Oct, +43,000 jobs; and Nov, +31,000 jobs).
For each month, 'net' = zero. 'Sub-trade' in BLS data referred to as 'specialty' trade.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 2: U.S. Employment November 2021 - % Change Y/Y
Based on Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data

Latest (November 2021) Y/Y:
Services, +4.8%; Manufacturing, +3.1%; Construction, +2.3%.
The period of exaggerated coronavirus-related swings in  employment is moderating.
The latest data points are for November, 2021.
Data source: Payroll Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 3: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − November 2021 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Nov 2021's y/y changes in employment within the hardest-hit sector, 'leisure & hospitality', were: 'hotels/motels', +24.0%; 'amusements/gambling', +17.5%; and 'restaurants & bars', +11.5%.
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor).
Chart: ConstructConnect.
Graph 4: U.S. Construction Employment (SA) & Unemployment Rate (NSA)
Neither the total jobs number nor the unemployment rate for construction are quite back to where they were before the pandemic. They've made great progress, but there's a step or two still to go.
Current through November, 2021. SA is seasonally adjusted / NSA is not seasonally adjusted.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ November 2021

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ November 2021 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Pluses and Minuses Among the Type of Structure Subcategories

November’s +1.7% month-to-month (m/m) increase in total nonresidential starts resulted from gains in industrial (+11.6%), engineering (+3.7%) and institutional (+2.0%) that were less than fully blunted by commercial (-2.3%).

The -8.0% performance of total nonresidential starts in November of this year versus November of last year (y/y) was due to drop downs in institutional (-26.8%) and commercial (-23.7%) that weren’t entirely counterbalanced by pickups in industrial (+186.3%) and engineering (+6.5%).

Year to date (ytd) total nonresidential starts in the eleventh month of 2021 were -1.6% despite industrial being +43.3% and engineering stepping forward by +2.1%. Exerting drag have been institutional, -10.6%, and commercial, -6.7%.

There are two dominant subcategories of total nonresidential starts. When the year-to-date volumes of ‘roads/highways’ and ‘schools/colleges’ are added together, they account for nearly one-third of total nonresidential activity (i.e., shares of 14.8% and 17.2% respectively summing to 32.0%).

The three percentage-change metrics for street starts in November were +1.8% m/m, -3.9% y/y, and +6.5% ytd. The corresponding key measures for school starts were +1.5% m/m, -21.5% y/y, and -14.0% ytd. As a point of interest, Table 2 shows starts for the K-12 portion of educational to be -12.9% year to date, somewhat less negative than the college/university component, -18.0%.

New school starts may be malingering; anecdotally, though, plenty of renovation work is proceeding to address issues raised by the coronavirus and to provide students with a ‘greener’ and, therefore, healthier learning environment.  

The next largest contributor (with an 8.5% share) to total nonresidential starts so far this year has been the ‘water/sewage’ subcategory. Its results have been -2.3% m/m, but +37.3% y/y and +10.2% ytd.

A consolidated health care subcategory of ‘hospitals/clinics,’ ‘nursing/assisted living,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical’ recorded starts in November that were: +1.9% m/m, -37.0% y/y, and -1.5% ytd. ‘Hospital/clinic’ starts on their own were +47.1% m/m (thanks to a big new VA medical center in Louisville, Kentucky - see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - November 2021) and +21.2% ytd, although -13.8% y/y. ‘Nursing/assisted living’ starts were quite downbeat: -78.2% m/m, -80.4% y/y, and -23.8% ytd.

The major commercial subcategories, already distressed by the pandemic, stayed weak on a year-to-date basis in the latest month, with ‘hotels/motels’ at -37.2% and ‘private office buildings,’ -30.4%. The latter, though, was +239.3% m/m, due to a Wall Street office tower redevelopment in New York (again, see Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - November 2021).

Interestingly, November’s government office building starts were +12.7% ytd. And miscellaneous’ commercial starts were +54.3% year to date, driven primarily by ‘transportation terminals’ at +134.9%.

Finally, under engineering’s banner, ‘power infrastructure’ starts in November were +89.2% ytd, although they were -87.7% m/m and -90.3% y/y. This is a category of starts where the monthly percentage-change results can be inordinately impacted by the timing of outsized project groundbreakings.

Table 2: Construction Starts in Some Additional Type of Structure Sub-Categories

  Jan-NOV 2021 % Change vs
  ($ billions) Jan-NOV 2020
     
Sports Stadiums/Convention Centers $5.061 13.4%
Transportation Teminals $5.319 134.9%
Courthouses $2.032 1.7%
Police Stations & Fire Halls $2.814 -8.1%
Prisons $2.144 -7.0%
Pre-School/Elementary $14.565 -23.2%
Junior & Senior High Schools $25.194 -5.5%
     K-12  (sum of above two categories) $39.759 -12.9%
Special & Vocational Schools $1.770 -6.2%
Colleges & Universities $13.704 -18.0%
Electric Power Infrastructure $8.507 89.2%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Hopes for a ‘Boomerang’ Effect From JOLTS

The labor shortage story in construction is a familiar one, an abundance of ‘openings’ that are not being rectified by hires. As seen in Graph 5, openings, both as a level and rate, are now matching their peaks achieved in mid-2019. From Graph 6, though, there’s been no recent breakout in hiring. Even substantial increases in earnings aren’t drawing potential workers to jobsites.

Employers are said to be hoping for a ‘boomerang’ effect. This is a mildly humorous, although strained, attempt at a play on words. Many older workers from the ‘boomer’ generation retired during the pandemic. (‘Baby boomers’ were born between the mid-1940s and mid-1960s.) The thought is that a good number of them will find too much leisure time boring and that there is an opportunity to lure many of them back to rewarding positions.

Graph 5: U.S. Construction Job Openings (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Construction job 'openings', as both a level and a rate, are quite elevated and are now matching their previous peaks realized in May 2019. On the flip side, hiring is not keeping up.
*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of 'construction employment plus number of job openings'.
Latest seasonally adjusted data points are for October 2021. ... JOLTS = Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 6: U.S. Construction Job Hires (from JOLTS Report)
(3-month Moving Averages placed in Latest Month)

Construction job hires, both as a level and rate, have risen from their 'floors', but they remain uninspiring and, in fact, at least on a 'smoothed' basis, have taken slight dips recently.
*Rate is number of job openings end-of-month as % of 'construction employment plus number of job openings'.
Latest seasonally adjusted data points are for October 2021. ... JOLTS = Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Most Starts Trend Graphs Moving Sideways

Almost all the 12-month moving average trend graphs (Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - November 2021) are moving sideways. There are four notable exceptions. The ‘private office buildings’ category has taken another steep dip lately, as a large project from last year has dropped out of the moving average calculation. Also, the ‘schools/colleges’ designation is continuing on a downward slope.

But there are also a couple of curves moving in the other direction. The ‘bridges’ graph line, over the past several months, has been ticking back upwards, after retreating from a noteworthy peak. And ‘water/sewage’ work remains on a slight incline.

Significant Wage Hikes Underway

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report from the BLS, record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B-3 (including bosses), ‘all jobs’ earnings y/y in November were +4.8% both hourly and weekly. Construction workers, as a subset of ‘all jobs,’ managed the exact same increases, +4.8% both hourly and weekly. From Table B-8 (leaving out bosses), the y/y ‘all jobs’ compensation gains were +5.9% hourly and +5.6% weekly. Construction workers straggled a little hourly, +5.3%, but danced ahead weekly, +6.4%.

Graph 7: Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y - 'All Jobs' & Construction
Hourly wage increases for 'all jobs' and for 'construction workers' as a subset have now moved above +5.0%. The average increase for 'all jobs' from 2010 to 2019 was +2.4% and for 'construction workers', +2.3%. There's been a doubling.
From ‘Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel’ Table (B8).
The latest data points are for November 2021
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report.
Chart: ConstructConnect.
Graph 8: Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y - 'All Jobs' & Construction
Weekly earnings paid to construction workers soared to +10.5% y/y in September, 2021. They've since settled back to +6.4% y/y. The NSA unemployment rate in construction is presently 4.7%, not far off the 3.9% figure for 'all jobs'.
From ‘Production Workers and Non-supervisory Personnel’ Table (B8).
The latest data points are for November 2021
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s Employment Situation report.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Table 3: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-NOV 2021 % Change vs Jan-NOV 2020
       
1 Texas $43,996,527,716 -10.0%
2 California $33,462,305,641 -8.3%
3 Florida $22,384,766,606 2.5%
4 New York $19,828,031,040 4.6%
5 Arizona $15,686,566,834 104.0%
6 Ohio $13,603,357,381 -2.8%
7 North Carolina $13,317,744,375 30.8%
8 Pennsylvania $12,572,232,276 15.4%
9 Illinois $12,098,690,231 -12.3%
10 Massachusetts $10,602,183,441 14.7%
11 Georgia $10,442,717,887 -14.3%
12 Minnesota $9,349,455,588 15.1%
13 Virginia $9,182,481,722 -10.6%
14 Tennessee $8,947,044,661 16.7%
15 Michigan $8,189,573,647 10.8%
16 Missouri $7,997,379,510 -12.9%
17 Louisiana $7,729,697,332 73.0%
18 Indiana $7,706,339,606 -2.3%
19 Washington $7,403,654,373 -41.2%
20 Wisconsin $6,843,869,879 -20.9%

Figures are comprised of non-res building & engineering (residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 4: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Nonresidential Building Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-NOV 2021 % Change vs Jan-NOV 2020
       
1 Texas $25,098,637,953 -17.8%
2 California $20,155,202,887 -0.7%
3 Florida $14,025,447,114 -3.1%
4 Arizona $13,811,423,639 136.3%
5 New York $12,463,702,612 -10.6%
6 North Carolina $9,881,647,315 24.8%
7 Ohio $8,903,123,139 -2.9%
8 Pennsylvania $8,470,420,409 29.4%
9 Georgia $6,958,343,166 -16.0%
10 Tennessee $6,546,292,891 13.1%
11 Virginia $6,248,283,170 -4.1%
12 Illinois $6,031,662,912 -17.4%
13 Missouri $5,460,691,570 -22.3%
14 Louisiana $5,312,009,803 217.7%
15 Massachusetts $5,266,266,022 -18.5%
16 Indiana $4,585,681,613 -3.5%
17 Washington $4,580,047,253 -19.9%
18 Alabama $4,282,351,250 23.0%
19 Maryland $4,234,297,494 -16.8%
20 Colorado $4,038,758,393 -12.2%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 5: 2021 YTD Ranking of Top 20 States by $ Volume of Heavy/Engineering Civil Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-NOV 2021 % Change vs Jan-NOV 2020
       
1 Texas $18,897,889,763 3.0%
2 California $13,307,102,754 -17.8%
3 Florida $8,359,319,492 13.7%
4 New York $7,364,328,428 47.1%
5 Minnesota $6,223,426,654 51.7%
6 Illinois $6,067,027,319 -6.6%
7 Massachusetts $5,335,917,419 91.6%
8 Ohio $4,700,234,242 -2.6%
9 Michigan $4,265,063,403 33.5%
10 Pennsylvania $4,101,811,867 -5.7%
11 Georgia $3,484,374,721 -10.7%
12 Wisconsin $3,448,239,716 9.8%
13 North Carolina $3,436,097,060 51.9%
14 Indiana $3,120,657,993 -0.5%
15 New Jersey $3,103,385,296 -5.1%
16 Virginia $2,934,198,552 -22.0%
17 Washington $2,823,607,120 -58.9%
18 Colorado $2,727,814,321 23.0%
19 Missouri $2,536,687,940 17.7%
20 Louisiana $2,417,687,529 -13.5%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Material Cost Pressures Unabated

November’s y/y results for three building-related BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: (A) ‘construction materials special index,’ +34.7% (an increase from October’s +30.8%); (B) ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +20.5% (a step up from the previous month’s +18.3%); and (C) ‘final demand construction,’ designed to capture bid prices, +12.3% (slightly above October’s +12.1%).

By the way, according to an authoritative BLS spokesperson, (A) comes from a data series with a long history but it’s confined to a limited number of major construction materials. (B) has a shorter history, but it’s more comprehensive in its coverage, although it includes some items (e.g., transportation) that aren’t strictly materials.   

Concerning the cost of some major construction material inputs, as revealed in the PPI data set published by the BLS, asphalt in November was +82.9% year over year; hot rolled steel bars, plates, and structural shapes, +60.7%; aluminum sheet and strip, +45.8%; copper wire and cable, +24.5%; gypsum products, +20.9%; ready-mix concrete, +7.1%; cement, +4.8%; and softwood lumber, +3.5%.

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

November 2021’s ‘Grand Total’ Starts +5.8% YTD

From Table 8 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in November were +3.1% m/m, +2.2% y/y, and +15.5% ytd. Multi-family starts in November were +22.9% m/m, +7.1% y/y, and +8.4% ytd. Single-family starts were -3.3% m/m, +0.3% y/y, and +18.3% ytd. Year to date, single-family starts have been livelier than multi-family (apartments and condos) starts, but the margin of superiority has been shrinking.

Including home building with all nonresidential categories, Grand Total starts in November 2021 were +2.4% m/m, -3.5% y/y, and +5.6% ytd.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or re-bid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.


Expansion Index Monitors Construction Prospects 

The economy may be in recovery mode, but nonresidential work is usually a lagging player. Companies are hesitant to undertake capital spending until their personnel needs are rapidly expanding and their office square footage or plant footprints are straining capacity. Also, it helps if profits are abundant. (Today’s greater tendency to work from home has made office occupancy much more difficult to assess.)

Each month, ConstructConnect publishes information on upcoming construction projects at its Expansion Index.

The Expansion Index, for hundreds of cities in the United States and Canada, calculates the ratio, based on dollar volume, of projects in the planning stage, at present, divided by the comparable figure a year ago. The ratio moves above 1.0 when there is currently a larger dollar volume of construction ‘prospects’ than there was last year at the same time. The ratio sinks below 1.0 when the opposite is the case. The results are set out in interactive maps for both countries.


Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - November 2021 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - November 2021.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - November 2021.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
NOVEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-NOV 21 Jan-NOV 21 vs    NOV 21 vs   NOV 21 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-NOV 20   NOV 20   OCT 21
             
Hotel/Motel 6.282 -37.2%   -48.7%   -9.4%
Retail 11.844 2.4%   -11.3%   12.0%
Parking Garage 1.603 -2.1%   18.7%   -23.5%
Amusement 6.070 3.4%   -20.4%   -40.1%
Private Office  16.848 -30.4%   -56.8%   239.3%
Government Office 11.174 12.7%   26.1%   7.8%
Laboratory 2.090 1.0%   -21.7%   13.4%
Warehouse 24.166 -3.0%   -5.5%   51.6%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 10.379 54.3%   96.1%   -72.1%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 90.459 -6.7%   -23.7%   -2.3%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 29.918 43.3%   186.3%   11.6%
             
Religious 0.876 -39.5%   -62.8%   28.9%
Hospital/Clinic 15.322 21.2%   -13.8%   47.1%
Nursing/Assisted Living 5.255 -23.8%   -80.4%   -78.2%
Library/Museum 2.224 -37.7%   -42.4%   47.5%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 6.990 -5.1%   -48.2%   -19.9%
Military 8.568 -3.0%   9.7%   12.7%
School/College 55.233 -14.0%   -21.5%   1.5%
Miscellaneous Medical 5.975 -19.6%   -58.1%   -9.7%
INSTITUTIONAL 100.443 -10.6%   -26.8%   2.0%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 5.626 5.6%   -15.8%   -26.2%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 226.446 -3.9%   -15.6%   0.5%
             
Airport 4.906 -16.3%   -67.8%   -54.1%
Road/Highway 64.220 6.5%   -3.9%   1.8%
Bridge 17.045 -15.5%   48.8%   23.2%
Dam/Marine 7.532 -4.4%   90.4%   57.9%
Water/Sewage 31.785 10.2%   37.3%   -2.3%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 21.940 2.6%   -32.5%   -13.5%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 147.429 2.1%   6.5%   3.7%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 373.876 -1.6%   -8.0%   1.7%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – NOVEMBER 2021
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Nov 21 Jan-Nov 21 vs     Nov 21 vs Nov 21 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Nov 20     Oct 20 Oct 21
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     147.429 2.1%     6.5% 3.7%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 226.446 -3.9%     -15.6% 0.5%
RESIDENTIAL   318.555 15.5%     2.2% 3.1%
GRAND TOTAL   692.431 5.6%     -3.5% 2.4%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 4.906 -16.3%     -67.8% -54.1%
    All Other Civil 13.433 -20.5%     8.9% 39.9%
    Bridges 17.045 -15.5%     48.8% 23.2%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 7.532 -4.4%     90.4% 57.9%
    Power Infrastructure 8.507 89.2%     -90.3% -87.7%
    Roads 64.220 6.5%     -3.9% 1.8%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 31.785 10.2%     37.3% -2.3%
CIVIL     147.429 2.1%     6.5% 3.7%
    Offices (private) 16.848 -30.4%     -56.8% 239.3%
    Parking Garages 1.603 -2.1%     18.7% -23.5%
    Transportation Terminals 5.319 134.9%     472.8% -70.2%
  Commercial (small subset) 23.770 -15.5%     -44.6% 3.3%
    Amusement 6.070 3.4%     -20.4% -40.1%
    Libraries / Museums 2.224 -37.7%     -42.4% 47.5%
    Religious 0.876 -39.5%     -62.8% 28.9%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 5.061 13.4%     8.0% -74.0%
  Community 14.231 -7.3%     -22.3% -57.8%
    College / University 13.704 -18.0%     -25.5% 21.5%
    Elementary / Pre School 14.565 -23.2%     -41.8% 13.0%
    Jr / Sr High School 25.194 -5.5%     -7.1% -15.0%
    Special / Vocational 1.770 -6.2%     35.5% 28.5%
  Educational 55.233 -14.0%     -21.5% 1.5%
    Courthouses 2.032 1.7%     -89.7% -61.7%
    Fire and Police Stations 2.814 -8.1%     -2.3% -3.8%
    Government Offices 11.174 12.7%     26.1% 7.8%
    Prisons 2.144 -7.0%     80.4% -7.8%
  Government 18.165 5.1%     -17.5% -4.4%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 2.090 1.0%     -21.7% 13.4%
    Manufacturing 29.918 43.3%     186.3% 11.6%
    Warehouses 24.166 -3.0%     -5.5% 51.6%
  Industrial 56.175 17.4%     42.5% 27.2%
    Hospitals / Clinics 15.322 21.2%     -13.8% 47.1%
    Medical Misc. 5.975 -19.6%     -58.1% -9.7%
    Nursing Homes 5.255 -23.8%     -80.4% -78.2%
  Medical   26.552 -1.5%     -37.0% 1.9%
  Military   8.568 -3.0%     9.7% 12.7%
    Hotels 6.282 -37.2%     -48.7% -9.4%
    Retail Misc. 5.626 5.6%     -15.8% -26.2%
    Shopping 11.844 2.4%     -11.3% 12.0%
  Retail   23.753 -11.7%     -27.7% -6.5%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 226.446 -3.9%     -15.6% 0.5%
    Multi-Family 82.805 8.4%     7.1% 22.9%
    Single-Family 235.749 18.3%     0.3% -3.3%
RESIDENTIAL   318.555 15.5%     2.2% 3.1%
NONRESIDENTIAL 373.876 -1.6%     -8.0% 1.7%
GRAND TOTAL   692.431 5.6%     -3.5% 2.4%

Table 2 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 3 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 8: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – NOVEMBER 2021 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-NOV JAN-NOV
  SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 SEP 21 OCT 21 NOV 21 2020 2021
                       
Single Family 21.194 20.036 19.376 22.533 21.229 20.202 21.475 21.305 21.309 199.330 235.749
   month-over-month % change -5.6% -5.5% -3.3% -6.2% -5.8% -4.8% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0%    
   year-over-year % change 0.5% -9.3% 0.3% 8.5% 0.0% -3.0% 25.1% 21.3% 19.0% 8.8% 18.3%
Apartment 5.249 6.396 7.862 7.000 6.815 6.502 7.464 7.336 7.380 76.380 82.805
   month-over-month % change -40.4% 21.8% 22.9% -10.9% -2.6% -4.6% -1.7% -1.7% 0.6%    
   year-over-year % change -22.9% -19.3% 7.1% 2.2% -4.3% -11.7% -0.9% 1.1% 4.1% -15.5% 8.4%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 26.444 26.431 27.238 29.532 28.044 26.704 28.939 28.641 28.689 275.710 318.555
   month-over-month % change -15.4% 0.0% 3.1% -7.3% -5.0% -4.8% -0.4% -1.0% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change -5.2% -11.9% 2.2% 6.9% -1.1% -5.3% 17.2% 15.4% 14.8% 0.8% 15.5%
Hotel/Motel 0.654 0.583 0.528 0.569 0.547 0.588 0.583 0.581 0.540 10.002 6.282
   month-over-month % change 62.2% -10.8% -9.4% -7.3% -4.0% 7.6% 1.3% -0.4% -7.2%    
   year-over-year % change 16.1% -4.3% -48.7% -11.6% -7.2% -19.8% -54.8% -49.7% -46.3% -53.5% -37.2%
Retail 1.030 0.737 0.826 1.135 1.135 0.864 1.089 1.055 1.046 11.571 11.844
   month-over-month % change -37.2% -28.4% 12.0% -13.1% 0.1% -23.9% -0.1% -3.2% -0.8%    
   year-over-year % change -0.8% -36.1% -11.3% 5.6% 2.1% -16.9% 3.9% -1.4% 0.4% -25.7% 2.4%
Parking Garages 0.081 0.148 0.114 0.135 0.125 0.114 0.140 0.141 0.142 1.637 1.603
   month-over-month % change -43.8% 82.2% -23.5% -10.0% -7.2% -8.3% -2.8% 0.8% 1.1%    
   year-over-year % change -37.6% 10.1% 18.7% -2.4% -16.6% -4.9% -19.5% -13.2% -3.2% -46.1% -2.1%
Amusement 0.354 0.498 0.298 0.707 0.482 0.384 0.565 0.548 0.542 5.871 6.070
   month-over-month % change -40.4% 40.7% -40.1% -14.3% -31.7% -20.5% -3.1% -3.0% -1.2%    
   year-over-year % change -38.1% -29.0% -20.4% 61.2% -11.7% -30.2% 1.0% 0.0% -0.2% -15.6% 3.4%
Office 1.448 0.486 1.648 2.248 1.745 1.194 1.820 1.724 1.543 24.223 16.848
   month-over-month % change -56.1% -66.4% 239.3% 7.5% -22.4% -31.6% 0.0% -5.3% -10.5%    
   year-over-year % change 0.0% -70.3% -56.8% 4.6% -22.7% -48.1% -26.3% -25.2% -29.3% -30.0% -30.4%
Governmental Offices 0.941 0.871 0.939 1.409 1.037 0.917 0.964 0.977 0.993 9.915 11.174
   month-over-month % change -27.6% -7.5% 7.8% 3.9% -26.4% -11.6% -6.3% 1.3% 1.7%    
   year-over-year % change -45.4% 21.6% 26.1% 22.0% -6.6% -13.6% 1.5% 6.4% 11.7% -9.8% 12.7%
Laboratories 0.151 0.123 0.139 0.260 0.178 0.138 0.211 0.201 0.198 2.070 2.090
   month-over-month % change -41.4% -18.9% 13.4% -5.1% -31.7% -22.4% -3.1% -4.6% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -34.8% -48.8% -21.7% 56.6% -10.3% -36.4% 12.8% 1.1% -0.3% -1.8% 1.0%
Warehouse 2.338 1.657 2.512 2.200 2.093 2.169 2.201 2.135 2.123 24.911 24.166
   month-over-month % change 2.4% -29.1% 51.6% 3.9% -4.8% 3.6% 2.6% -3.0% -0.6%    
   year-over-year % change 39.4% -32.3% -5.5% 12.8% -3.1% -4.0% 3.7% -3.1% -5.8% 21.9% -3.0%
Misc Commercial 0.516 2.893 0.808 0.518 1.381 1.406 0.632 0.845 0.878 6.725 10.379
   month-over-month % change -29.9% 460.9% -72.1% -57.5% 166.5% 1.7% -1.4% 33.6% 3.9%    
   year-over-year % change -17.3% 746.6% 96.1% -32.3% 145.5% 206.2% -20.2% 15.6% 38.6% -65.9% 54.3%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 7.513 7.996 7.812 9.180 8.723 7.774 8.205 8.206 8.004 96.925 90.459
   month-over-month % change -29.5% 6.4% -2.3% -7.8% -5.0% -10.9% -0.5% 0.0% -2.5%    
   year-over-year % change -6.2% 0.2% -23.7% 8.2% 0.5% -11.1% -14.5% -11.7% -10.0% -28.2% -6.7%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 10.694 2.476 2.763 4.715 4.762 5.311 2.468 2.415 2.565 20.884 29.918
   month-over-month % change 857.1% -76.8% 11.6% 192.7% 1.0% 11.5% 40.5% -2.2% 6.2%    
   year-over-year % change 394.5% -20.6% 186.3% 108.2% 62.7% 155.1% 22.3% 18.7% 36.7% -61.5% 43.3%
Religious 0.049 0.042 0.055 0.084 0.083 0.049 0.102 0.095 0.088 1.448 0.876
   month-over-month % change -68.8% -14.0% 28.9% -14.6% -1.4% -41.4% -6.2% -7.0% -8.1%    
   year-over-year % change -62.1% -66.9% -62.8% -22.7% -31.8% -63.9% -23.3% -30.0% -32.6% -18.5% -39.5%
Hosptials/Clinics 1.834 1.035 1.523 1.230 1.232 1.464 1.372 1.356 1.336 12.640 15.322
   month-over-month % change 121.3% -43.5% 47.1% 20.3% 0.2% 18.8% 5.7% -1.1% -1.5%    
   year-over-year % change 94.6% -14.8% -13.8% 12.0% 9.8% 11.9% -2.2% 4.1% 8.1% -35.5% 21.2%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.455 0.539 0.118 0.486 0.524 0.371 0.534 0.527 0.487 6.894 5.255
   month-over-month % change -21.4% 18.4% -78.2% -21.3% 8.0% -29.3% -4.3% -1.3% -7.6%    
   year-over-year % change -38.6% -13.0% -80.4% -24.4% -26.9% -43.3% -17.5% -15.2% -20.5% -24.6% -23.8%
Libraries/Museums 0.202 0.095 0.141 0.244 0.163 0.146 0.217 0.214 0.205 3.569 2.224
   month-over-month % change 6.0% -52.8% 47.5% 0.5% -33.5% -10.2% 4.2% -1.3% -4.0%    
   year-over-year % change 106.5% -26.4% -42.4% 29.9% 4.9% -7.2% -39.4% -33.4% -34.8% -7.6% -37.7%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.591 0.683 0.547 0.635 0.624 0.607 0.680 0.684 0.642 7.367 6.990
   month-over-month % change -0.9% 15.5% -19.9% -13.0% -1.8% -2.7% -0.7% 0.7% -6.2%    
   year-over-year % change -8.4% 8.9% -48.2% -15.3% -17.7% -21.8% 8.2% 10.8% -2.2% 14.5% -5.1%
Military 0.856 1.058 1.192 0.677 0.841 1.035 0.730 0.737 0.746 8.829 8.568
   month-over-month % change 40.5% 23.6% 12.7% -16.0% 24.2% 23.1% -1.1% 0.9% 1.2%    
   year-over-year % change -10.3% 8.4% 9.7% -6.7% -1.5% 2.9% 1.4% 2.5% -1.2% 83.2% -3.0%
Schools/Colleges 3.924 3.365 3.415 4.984 4.430 3.568 5.034 4.957 4.879 64.223 55.233
   month-over-month % change -34.6% -14.2% 1.5% -20.4% -11.1% -19.5% -0.3% -1.5% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -4.7% -21.6% -21.5% -7.8% -6.4% -16.1% -13.8% -14.6% -15.8% -9.0% -14.0%
Misc Government 0.856 0.327 0.296 0.648 0.573 0.493 0.624 0.597 0.563 7.428 5.975
   month-over-month % change 59.3% -61.8% -9.7% 4.8% -11.4% -14.0% 4.4% -4.3% -5.7%    
   year-over-year % change 59.4% -49.4% -58.1% 0.4% -2.8% -21.8% -9.4% -10.3% -18.1% -12.8% -19.6%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 8.767 7.146 7.287 8.989 8.471 7.733 9.292 9.168 8.946 112.398 100.443
   month-over-month % change -7.7% -18.5% 2.0% -13.6% -5.8% -8.7% 0.5% -1.3% -2.4%    
   year-over-year % change 7.4% -17.2% -26.8% -6.0% -6.4% -13.3% -10.8% -10.0% -12.2% -9.9% -10.6%
Misc Non Residential 0.493 0.601 0.443 0.485 0.500 0.512 0.512 0.515 0.508 5.328 5.626
   month-over-month % change 21.2% 21.9% -26.2% 1.4% 3.3% 2.4% 0.3% 0.5% -1.3%    
   year-over-year % change 4.3% 5.1% -15.8% 7.3% -2.6% -2.1% -7.2% 0.6% 5.5% -26.2% 5.6%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 27.467 18.219 18.305 23.368 22.457 21.330 20.478 20.304 20.022 235.535 226.446
   month-over-month % change 26.7% -33.7% 0.5% 4.1% -3.9% -5.0% 3.7% -0.8% -1.4%    
   year-over-year % change 46.0% -10.3% -15.6% 12.6% 6.0% 5.2% -9.3% -7.8% -6.6% -26.6% -3.9%
Airports 0.496 0.442 0.203 0.563 0.525 0.380 0.460 0.458 0.423 5.863 4.906
   month-over-month % change -22.0% -11.0% -54.1% -18.8% -6.8% -27.5% -3.5% -0.3% -7.8%    
   year-over-year % change -28.5% -4.2% -67.8% -19.5% -16.1% -36.1% -15.3% -8.6% -19.5% -15.7% -16.3%
Roads/Highways 4.808 5.059 5.147 6.355 5.338 5.005 5.651 5.647 5.629 60.320 64.220
   month-over-month % change -21.8% 5.2% 1.8% -9.5% -16.0% -6.2% 1.2% -0.1% -0.3%    
   year-over-year % change 20.0% -0.9% -3.9% 26.0% 11.8% 3.8% 7.4% 7.1% 4.4% -1.0% 6.5%
Bridges 1.234 1.314 1.618 1.328 1.270 1.389 1.572 1.592 1.636 20.170 17.045
   month-over-month % change -2.1% 6.5% 23.2% -7.2% -4.4% 9.4% 1.5% 1.3% 2.8%    
   year-over-year % change 28.1% 22.2% 48.8% -6.2% 19.9% 33.3% -20.9% -15.5% -9.9% -29.4% -15.5%
Dams/Marine 0.921 0.898 1.417 0.705 0.820 1.078 0.635 0.605 0.661 7.881 7.532
   month-over-month % change 43.3% -2.5% 57.9% 14.2% 16.3% 31.5% 7.4% -4.7% 9.3%    
   year-over-year % change 133.8% -28.4% 90.4% 21.7% 0.3% 35.3% -9.0% -15.6% -4.2% -3.3% -4.4%
Water/Sewage 2.872 2.680 2.618 3.062 2.786 2.724 2.754 2.791 2.850 28.830 31.785
   month-over-month % change 2.3% -6.7% -2.3% -4.0% -9.0% -2.3% -0.9% 1.3% 2.1%    
   year-over-year % change -9.0% 19.7% 37.3% 5.3% 3.6% 11.9% 0.6% 2.7% 6.9% 1.4% 10.2%
Misc Civil 1.284 1.304 1.127 2.398 1.455 1.238 1.986 1.985 1.940 21.384 21.940
   month-over-month % change -27.7% 1.5% -13.5% -5.5% -39.3% -14.9% 1.5% 0.0% -2.3%    
   year-over-year % change 37.1% -0.3% -32.5% 26.9% -1.4% -5.1% -27.6% -16.7% -17.5% -45.7% 2.6%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 11.615 11.696 12.132 14.411 12.194 11.814 13.058 13.079 13.140 144.448 147.429
   month-over-month % change -12.5% 0.7% 3.7% -7.0% -15.4% -3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5%    
   year-over-year % change 14.5% 2.2% 6.5% 14.9% 6.6% 7.4% -6.5% -3.0% -2.2% -16.2% 2.1%
GRAND TOTAL 65.526 56.346 57.674 67.311 62.695 59.849 62.475 62.024 61.851 655.693 692.431
   month-over-month % change -1.0% -14.0% 2.4% -3.6% -6.9% -4.5% 1.2% -0.7% -0.3%    
   year-over-year % change 15.2% -8.8% -3.5% 10.5% 2.8% 0.7% 2.0% 2.8% 3.3% -14.5% 5.6%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 39.083 29.915 30.436 37.779 34.651 33.145 33.535 33.383 33.162 379.984 373.876
   month-over-month % change 11.8% -23.5% 1.7% -0.4% -8.3% -4.3% 2.6% -0.5% -0.7%    
   year-over-year % change 35.0% -5.8% -8.0% 13.5% 6.2% 6.0% -8.2% -6.0% -4.9% -23.0% -1.6%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 9: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-NOV 2020   JAN-NOV 2021   % Change
           
Connecticut $3,443,418,278   $2,675,900,575   -22.3%
Maine $1,619,244,616   $2,915,241,474   80.0%
Massachusetts $9,243,282,229   $10,602,183,441   14.7%
New Hampshire $1,018,528,086   $1,345,689,836   32.1%
Rhode Island $689,199,034   $887,476,118   28.8%
Vermont $537,625,745   $344,427,027   -35.9%
Total New England $16,551,297,988   $18,770,918,471   13.4%
New Jersey $7,014,187,551   $6,296,934,179   -10.2%
New York $18,950,590,390   $19,828,031,040   4.6%
Pennsylvania $10,898,167,057   $12,572,232,276   15.4%
Total Middle Atlantic $36,862,944,998   $38,697,197,495   5.0%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $53,414,242,986   $57,468,115,966   7.6%
Illinois $13,797,759,624   $12,098,690,231   -12.3%
Indiana $7,887,521,077   $7,706,339,606   -2.3%
Michigan $7,389,022,864   $8,189,573,647   10.8%
Ohio $13,991,492,646   $13,603,357,381   -2.8%
Wisconsin $8,653,452,747   $6,843,869,879   -20.9%
Total East North Central $51,719,248,958   $48,441,830,744   -6.3%
Iowa $4,843,293,967   $5,093,104,052   5.2%
Kansas $5,139,778,884   $3,483,556,896   -32.2%
Minnesota $8,123,598,346   $9,349,455,588   15.1%
Missouri $9,181,243,320   $7,997,379,510   -12.9%
Nebraska $4,201,984,990   $3,536,943,559   -15.8%
North Dakota $2,259,718,558   $2,036,018,580   -9.9%
South Dakota $1,216,434,316   $1,763,859,532   45.0%
Total West North Central $34,966,052,381   $33,260,317,717   -4.9%
TOTAL MIDWEST $86,685,301,339   $81,702,148,461   -5.7%
Delaware $1,567,032,135   $981,426,992   -37.4%
District of Columbia $842,295,322   $887,217,727   5.3%
Florida $21,830,931,072   $22,384,766,606   2.5%
Georgia $12,182,475,967   $10,442,717,887   -14.3%
Maryland $6,613,317,840   $5,504,140,027   -16.8%
North Carolina $10,179,247,106   $13,317,744,375   30.8%
South Carolina $5,137,401,305   $4,861,693,043   -5.4%
Virginia $10,274,673,892   $9,182,481,722   -10.6%
West Virginia $2,442,725,436   $1,126,839,679   -53.9%
Total South Atlantic $71,070,100,075   $68,689,028,058   -3.4%
Alabama $5,031,918,053   $6,141,972,837   22.1%
Kentucky $5,239,024,356   $4,804,529,687   -8.3%
Mississippi $2,989,004,051   $2,583,913,965   -13.6%
Tennessee $7,664,238,054   $8,947,044,661   16.7%
Total East South Central $20,924,184,514   $22,477,461,150   7.4%
Arkansas $4,240,780,158   $2,755,896,439   -35.0%
Louisiana $4,466,954,284   $7,729,697,332   73.0%
Oklahoma $4,104,690,146   $4,229,869,915   3.0%
Texas $48,886,071,359   $43,996,527,716   -10.0%
Total West South Central $61,698,495,947   $58,711,991,402   -4.8%
TOTAL SOUTH $153,692,780,536   $149,878,480,610   -2.5%
Arizona $7,690,440,241   $15,686,566,834   104.0%
Colorado $6,816,931,119   $6,766,572,714   -0.7%
Idaho $1,384,307,654   $1,256,598,152   -9.2%
Montana $1,508,609,310   $1,085,242,100   -28.1%
Nevada $3,411,105,442   $3,586,873,156   5.2%
New Mexico $1,937,363,683   $1,690,557,402   -12.7%
Utah $6,163,896,804   $4,705,499,235   -23.7%
Wyoming $920,614,864   $965,759,824   4.9%
Total Mountain $29,833,269,117   $35,743,669,417   19.8%
Alaska $1,364,000,394   $1,261,501,964   -7.5%
California $36,476,636,248   $33,462,305,641   -8.3%
Hawaii $1,901,226,637   $2,002,242,164   5.3%
Oregon $4,024,029,167   $4,953,626,672   23.1%
Washington $12,592,027,811   $7,403,654,373   -41.2%
Total Pacific $56,357,920,257   $49,083,330,814   -12.9%
TOTAL WEST $86,191,189,374   $84,827,000,231   -1.6%
TOTAL U.S. $379,983,514,235   $373,875,745,268   -1.6%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

About Alex Carrick, Chief Economist

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

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