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By: Alex Carrick on January 13th, 2021

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Nonresidential Construction Starts Falter in December; Full Year 2020 -27% vs 2019

Economic News | Industry Snapshot

Mega Project Collapse in 2020

ConstructConnect announced today that the latest month’s volume of construction starts, excluding residential work, was $20.8 billion, a decline of -30.9% versus November's $30.2 billion (originally reported as $28.9 billion).

Nonresidential Construction Starts Falter in December; Full Year 2020 -27% vs 2019 Graphic

In a year of starts that was severely diminished by the coronavirus pandemic, perhaps the most striking feature was the collapse in ‘mega’ projects (i.e., groundbreakings of a million dollars or more each). In 2019, there were 35 mega project initiations summing to $79.1 billion. Last year, there were only a dozen such projects, combining for a value of $21.0 billion. The drop in mega project dollar volume was -73.5%, or nearly three-quarters.


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Click here to download the complete Construction Industry Snapshot Package - December 2020 PDF.

Emphasizing how bad the final month of 2020 was for total nonresidential starts, their decline relative to December 2019 was -46.0%. In other words, they were down by nearly half.

As for 2020’s full year starts, they were off by a little more than one-quarter, -27.3%. December year-to-date numbers are the full year or annual figures. ‘Institutional’ was the type-of-structure category than managed the smallest annual retreat, -14.6%.

Rays of Optimism in the Outlook

There are several good reasons to feel somewhat more optimistic about the economic outlook. They can be summarized as follows:

  1. However hesitantly, effective coronavirus vaccines are being rolled out;
  2. Personal savings have soared to a record high which will facilitate spending on…
  3. Pent-up demand that has accumulated for single-family housing, recreation, travel, elective medical procedures, etc.;
  4. The price of oil has climbed back to a reasonable level, above $50 USD per barrel;
  5. China is ramping up infrastructure spending, which will help lift all commodity prices.

Construction Jobs +51,000 in December

Before there is blanket protection from the coronavirus, however, there is likely to be a weak first quarter to 2021. With a resurgence in COVID-19 case counts at the end of last year, which forced many restaurant and other enterprise reopening efforts to be shelved or rolled back, total employment in the U.S. shrank by -140,000 jobs in December. (The net effect, though, was essentially zero, since November’s total jobs figure has most recently been revised upwards by +135,000 jobs from what was originally reported.)

U.S. total jobs recovery since the floor fell out of employment from February-to-April 2020 is a still lackluster 52.1%. The year-over-year performance of jobs in the hardest-hit sector of the economy, leisure and hospitality, is -22.8% (i.e., a shredding of nearly a quarter of all positions). The construction sector’s year-over-year jobs record has been a relatively innocuous -1.9%.

Construction achieved a +51,000 increase in staffing in the latest month (according to the survey of employers). Nevertheless, the sector’s not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate (derived from a different survey, the ‘household’ survey) rose to 9.6%, an uptick from November’s 7.3% and well above December 2019’s 5.0%.

Table 1: Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ December 2020

Monitoring the U.S. employment recovery ‒ December 2020 Chart
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Graph 1: Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − December 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted payroll data)

Y/Y Jobs Change, U.S. Total Industry & Major Subsectors − December 2020 (based on seasonally adjusted  payroll data) Chart
Data source: Payroll Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept of Labor)).
Chart: ConstructConnect.
Graph 2: U.S. Construction Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted - NSA)
U.S. Construction Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted - NSA) Chart
Current through December, 2020. SA is seasonally adjusted / NSA is not seasonally adjusted.
Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect.

Institutional and Engineering Suffered Least Harm

The -30.9% drop for total nonresidential starts in December versus November (m/m) was the result of big slides in industrial, -77.8%; commercial, -53.2%; and institutional, -34.9%, volumes; while heavy engineering/civil stepped back to a lesser degree, -7.8%.

The -46.0% plummet in December 2020 compared with December 2019 (y/y), for total nonresidential starts, was caused by sizable pullbacks in all type-of-structure categories: industrial, -92.1%; commercial, -58.1%; engineering, -39.4%; and institutional, -38.8%.

2020’s full year fall-off in nonresidential starts of -27.3% relative to 2019 (ytd) was centered more in the industrial and commercial type-of-structure categories (-68.0% and -34.2% respectively) than in engineering and institutional work (-19.1% and -14.6%).

The bottom line is that, in 2020, institutional and engineering starts were caught in harm’s way, but not to the same stomach-churning degree as industrial and commercial.

Some Dramatic Shifts in Shares Taken by Subsectors

In 2020, some interesting shifts in the composition of commercial, institutional, and engineering starts occurred. ‘Hotel/motel’ starts as a share of commercial eased back to 11% from 15% in 2019. In 2018 and 2017, they had been at 20%.

Warehouse starts as a share of commercial soared to 24% in 2020 from just 15% the year before. At +1.3% annual growth, warehouse starts were one of only three subcategories to register an increase in dollar volume, full year 2020 over full year 2019.

The other two subcategories with full-year gains were within institutional starts ‒ ‘fire/police/courthouse/prison,’ +18.5%, and ‘military,’ +81.3%. Combined, those two subcategories as a share of institutional increased to 15% in 2020 from 9% in the prior year.

Health care starts, though, as the combination of ‘hospital,’ ‘nursing homes,’ and ‘miscellaneous medical,’ slipped to 23% of institutional from around 30% in past years.

‘School/college’ starts within institutional claimed their usual share of just under 60%.

Within engineering, ‘road/highway’ starts soared to 41% from 34% in 2019. Most dramatic, though, was the plunge in share claimed by ‘miscellaneous civil,’ sinking to 14% last year from 25% in 2019. The wealth of mega project work that was green-lighted in 2019 was heavily skewed towards the ‘miscellaneous civil’ category (e.g., rapid transit lines and LNG and other petrochemical energy projects).

Table 2 dives into 2020 subsector starts with even greater granularity. For example, within ‘fire/police/courthouse/prison’ starts, it was courthouses that registered the largest percentage jump, +51.9%. Within educational facility starts, the declines for ‘K-12’ and ‘colleges/universities’ were on a par, -13.8% and -13.5%.

Table 2: Construction Starts in Some Additional Type of Structure Sub-Categories

  Jan-dec 2020 % Change vs
  ($ billions) Jan-dec 2019
     
Sports Stadiums/Convention Centers $4.330 -56.0%
Transportation Teminals $2.354 -78.1%
Courthouses $2.381 51.9%
Police Stations & Fire Halls $3.362 3.1%
Prisons $2.480 17.5%
Pre-School/Elementary $19.518 -9.0%
Junior & Senior High Schools $27.262 -17.0%
     K-12  (sum of above two categories) $46.780 -13.8%
Special & Vocational Schools $3.848 0.9%
Colleges & Universities $34.029 -13.5%
Electric Power Infrastructure $3.565 -75.7%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 3: Ranking of Top 20 States by YTD $ Volume of Nonresidential Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-DEC 2020 % Change vs Jan-DEC 2019
       
1 Texas $48,606,249,018 -44.3%
2 California $38,393,082,049 -7.4%
3 Florida $23,605,330,326 -29.1%
4 New York $19,234,666,679 -33.4%
5 Illinois $15,246,810,879 -11.2%
6 Ohio $13,548,895,243 -10.7%
7 Washington $12,546,870,175 -33.3%
8 Georgia $10,907,774,599 -42.2%
9 Pennsylvania $10,875,819,981 -30.2%
10 Virginia $10,604,371,923 -28.9%
11 North Carolina $10,006,070,459 -43.6%
12 Missouri $9,099,611,172 12.6%
13 Massachusetts $9,037,511,141 -33.4%
14 Minnesota $8,559,920,212 -21.8%
15 Wisconsin $8,448,065,622 -23.0%
16 Indiana $7,951,894,615 -10.4%
17 Tennessee $7,916,084,769 -9.4%
18 Arizona $7,601,065,321 -22.9%
19 New Jersey $7,578,541,854 -16.8%
20 Michigan $7,373,720,967 -43.7%

Figures are comprised of non-res building & engineering (residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 4: Ranking of Top 20 States by YTD $ Volume of Nonresidential Building Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-DEC 2020 % Change vs Jan-DEC 2019
       
1 Texas $29,430,145,860 -53.5%
2 California $20,220,823,524 -21.9%
3 Florida $14,905,046,477 -21.3%
4 New York $14,059,621,297 -33.3%
5 Ohio $8,817,949,394 -11.7%
6 Illinois $8,265,438,612 -6.5%
7 North Carolina $7,588,396,149 -30.1%
8 Virginia $6,855,339,204 -11.0%
9 Georgia $6,853,634,360 -54.6%
10 Missouri $6,798,432,542 19.0%
11 Pennsylvania $6,278,981,580 -33.0%
12 Massachusetts $6,044,252,457 -36.3%
13 Tennessee $5,844,020,004 -6.0%
14 Arizona $5,633,358,785 -9.9%
15 Washington $5,599,118,560 -56.7%
16 Wisconsin $5,244,838,873 -26.4%
17 Maryland $5,212,946,805 3.1%
18 Indiana $4,600,129,830 -25.4%
19 Colorado $4,378,252,174 -43.9%
20 Utah $4,166,397,862 9.0%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Table 5: Ranking of Top 20 States by YTD $ Volume of Heavy/Engineering Civil Construction Starts - ConstructConnect

    Jan-DEC 2020 % Change vs Jan-DEC 2019
       
1 Texas $19,176,103,158 -20.1%
2 California $18,172,258,525 16.7%
3 Florida $8,700,283,849 -39.4%
4 Illinois $6,981,372,267 -16.1%
5 Washington $6,947,751,615 17.9%
6 New York $5,175,045,382 -33.7%
7 Ohio $4,730,945,849 -8.7%
8 Pennsylvania $4,596,838,401 -26.0%
9 Minnesota $4,473,060,887 -28.3%
10 Georgia $4,054,140,239 7.0%
11 Virginia $3,749,032,719 -48.0%
12 New Jersey $3,546,585,901 0.2%
13 Indiana $3,351,764,785 23.6%
14 Michigan $3,263,895,708 -50.9%
15 Wisconsin $3,203,226,749 -16.5%
16 Massachusetts $2,993,258,684 -26.7%
17 Louisiana $2,902,613,902 31.8%
18 Iowa $2,543,997,541 -19.2%
19 North Carolina $2,417,674,310 -64.9%
20 Colorado $2,327,044,525 -34.1%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

Graph 3: State & Local Government Tax Revenue
Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Current $s, Moving 4-Quarter Totals
State & Local Government Tax Revenue Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Current $s, Moving 4-Quarter Totals Chart
Data source: Census Bureau.
Chart: ConstructConnect.

10 of 12 Trend Graphs Cascade Downwards

There’s not much positive to be said about the 12-month moving average trend graphs (see Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - December 2020). The curves in 10 of the 12 charts are heading downwards. ‘Private offices’, ‘retail’ and ‘miscellaneous civil’ are displaying the most obvious downward trajectories. The only type-of-structure categories maintaining level paths are ‘roads/highways’ and ‘water/sewage.’

Construction Workers Not in the Vanguard for Pay Hikes

Tables B-3 and B-8 of the monthly Employment Situation report record average hourly and average weekly wages for industry sectors. B-3 is for all employees (i.e., including bosses) on nonfarm payrolls. B-8 is for ‘production and nonsupervisory personnel’ only (i.e., it excludes bosses). For ‘all jobs’ and construction, there are eight relevant percentage changes to consider.

From Table B-3 (including supervisory personnel), ‘all-jobs’ earnings y/y in December were notably buoyant, +5.1% hourly and +6.3% weekly. The compensation gains for construction workers (i.e., as a subset of ‘all jobs’) were only about half as bouncy, +2.8% hourly and +3.1% weekly. From Table B-8 (excluding bosses), the same pattern emerged. ‘All jobs’ y/y pay hikes were +5.2% hourly and +7.1% weekly. Construction workers did okay, but weren’t in the vanguard, at +2.6% hourly and +3.7% weekly.

Material Costs Soften; Bid Price Change Stays Low and Flat

November 2020’s y/y results for three BLS Producer Price Index (PPI) series were as follows: ‘construction materials special index,’ +4.9% (a step back from October’s +5.4%); ‘inputs to new construction index, excluding capital investment, labor, and imports,’ +4.5% (an easing versus October’s +5.5%); and ‘final demand construction,’ +1.2% (a level performance compared with the previous month). Bid prices and profit margins are being constrained by a shallower pool of projects going out to tender.  

The value of construction starts each month is derived from ConstructConnect’s database of all active construction projects in the U.S. Missing project values are estimated with the help of RSMeans’ building cost models. ConstructConnect’s nonresidential construction starts series, because it is comprised of total-value estimates for individual projects, some of which are super-large, has a history of being more volatile than many other leading indicators for the economy. 

2020/2019 ‘Grand Total’ Starts -18.3%

From Table 9 below, ConstructConnect’s total residential starts in December 2020 were -12.8% m/m, -9.5% y/y, and -2.1% ytd. The latest month’s multi-unit starts were -36.2% m/m, -62.2% y/y, and -27.6% ytd. Single-family starts were -6.8% m/m, +19.9% y/y, and +10.6% ytd. The single-family home building market is presently a clear standout among type-of-structure construction categories. 'Grand Total’ construction starts in December of 2020 were -22.7% m/m and -31.9% y/y. For full year 2020, they were -18.3%.

ConstructConnect adopts a research-assigned ‘start’ date. In concept, a ‘start’ is equivalent to ground being broken for a project to proceed. If work is abandoned or re-bid, the ‘start’ date is revised to reflect the new information.

Click here to download the Construction Industry Snapshot Package - December 2020 PDF.

Click here for the Top 10 Project Starts in the U.S. - December 2020.

Click here for the Nonresidential Construction Starts Trend Graphs - December 2020.

TABLE 6: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS
DECEMBER 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT

    % Change   % Change   % Change
  Jan-DEC 20 Jan-DEC 20 vs    DEC 20 vs   DEC 20 vs
  ($ billions) Jan-DEC 19   DEC 19   NOV 20
             
Hotel/Motel 10.160 -56.8%   -90.2%   -80.8%
Retail 11.605 -29.7%   -45.3%   -31.2%
Parking Garage 1.777 -43.8%   -36.9%   -23.3%
Amusement 5.966 -21.5%   -58.6%   -16.5%
Private Office  23.086 -36.9%   -38.9%   -65.0%
Government Office 10.917 -7.1%   2.6%   2.9%
Laboratory 2.143 -11.3%   -29.3%   92.4%
Warehouse 22.853 1.3%   -68.0%   -63.6%
Miscellaneous Commercial* 6.684 -67.5%   -81.0%   -57.0%
COMMERCIAL (big subset) 95.191 -34.2%   -58.1%   -53.2%
             
INDUSTRIAL (Manufacturing) 17.848 -68.0%   -92.1%   -77.8%
             
Religious 1.454 -23.0%   22.9%   99.0%
Hospital/Clinic 12.505 -42.6%   -77.0%   -69.2%
Nursing/Assisted Living 6.969 -27.4%   -14.9%   -27.3%
Library/Museum 3.660 -10.1%   -48.4%   -25.6%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 8.224 18.5%   69.1%   -19.1%
Military 9.154 81.3%   76.0%   -63.9%
School/College 65.719 -13.4%   -45.0%   -28.8%
Miscellaneous Medical 7.252 -22.4%   -14.4%   17.9%
INSTITUTIONAL 114.937 -14.6%   -38.8%   -34.9%
             
Miscellaneous Nonresidential 5.445 -29.0%   -22.1%   -23.5%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 233.420 -31.9%   -51.1%   -44.3%
             
Airport 6.083 -17.7%   -61.0%   -74.0%
Road/Highway 63.486 -2.8%   -24.1%   -36.8%
Bridge 22.477 -25.5%   58.6%   144.9%
Dam/Marine 8.221 -3.8%   3.3%   -51.3%
Water/Sewage 31.235 -1.2%   -22.7%   31.6%
Miscellaneous Civil (power, pipelines, etc.) 21.630 -53.2%   -81.3%   -9.1%
HEAVY ENGINEERING (Civil) 153.132 -19.1%   -39.4%   -7.8%
             
TOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL 386.553 -27.3%   -46.0%   -30.9%

*Includes transportation terminals and sports arenas.

Source: ConstructConnect Research Group and ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 7: VALUE OF UNITED STATES CONSTRUCTION STARTS
CONSTRUCTCONNECT INSIGHT VERSION – DECEMBER 2020
Arranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT

        % Change     % Change % Change
      Jan-Dec 20 Jan-Dec 20 vs     Dec 20 vs Dec 20 vs
      ($ billions) Jan-Dec 19     Dec 19 Nov 20
                 
Summary              
CIVIL     153.132 -19.1%     -39.4% -7.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 233.420 -31.9%     -51.1% -44.3%
RESIDENTIAL   291.460 -2.1%     -9.5% -12.8%
GRAND TOTAL   678.013 -18.3%     -31.9% -22.7%
                 
Verticals              
    Airport 6.083 -17.7%     -61.0% -74.0%
    All Other Civil 18.065 -42.6%     -78.1% 24.8%
    Bridges 22.477 -25.5%     58.6% 144.9%
    Dams / Canals / Marine Work 8.221 -3.8%     3.3% -51.3%
    Power Infrastructure 3.565 -75.7%     -97.9% -94.0%
    Roads 63.486 -2.8%     -24.1% -36.8%
    Water and Sewage Treatment 31.235 -1.2%     -22.7% 31.6%
CIVIL     153.132 -19.1%     -39.4% -7.8%
    Offices (private) 23.086 -36.9%     -38.9% -65.0%
    Parking Garages 1.777 -43.8%     -36.9% -23.3%
    Transportation Terminals 2.354 -78.1%     -84.5% 32.0%
  Commercial (small subset) 27.217 -46.1%     -49.6% -61.7%
    Amusement 5.966 -21.5%     -58.6% -16.5%
    Libraries / Museums 3.660 -10.1%     -48.4% -25.6%
    Religious 1.454 -23.0%     22.9% 99.0%
    Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 4.330 -56.0%     -70.9% -78.9%
  Community 15.411 -34.1%     -51.4% -31.5%
    College / University 17.014 -13.5%     -30.3% -27.3%
    Elementary / Pre School 19.518 -9.0%     -49.4% -35.8%
    Jr / Sr High School 27.262 -17.0%     -52.6% -24.2%
    Special / Vocational 1.924 0.9%     -56.0% -43.4%
  Educational 65.719 -13.4%     -45.0% -28.8%
    Courthouses 2.381 51.9%     1003.4% -40.5%
    Fire and Police Stations 3.362 3.1%     25.6% -2.8%
    Government Offices 10.917 -7.1%     2.6% 2.9%
    Prisons 2.480 17.5%     -26.1% 66.3%
  Government 19.140 2.4%     29.3% -9.9%
    Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 2.143 -11.3%     -29.3% 92.4%
    Manufacturing 17.848 -68.0%     -92.1% -77.8%
    Warehouses 22.853 1.3%     -68.0% -63.6%
  Industrial 42.844 -47.0%     -74.7% -59.9%
    Hospitals / Clinics 12.505 -42.6%     -77.0% -69.2%
    Medical Misc. 7.252 -22.4%     -14.4% 17.9%
    Nursing Homes 6.969 -27.4%     -14.9% -27.3%
  Medical   26.726 -34.4%     -54.1% -42.3%
  Military   9.154 81.3%     76.0% -63.9%
    Hotels 10.160 -56.8%     -90.2% -80.8%
    Retail Misc. 5.445 -29.0%     -22.1% -23.5%
    Shopping 11.605 -29.7%     -45.3% -31.2%
  Retail   27.210 -43.0%     -69.1% -52.6%
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING 233.420 -31.9%     -51.1% -44.3%
    Multi-Family 71.666 -27.6%     -62.2% -36.2%
    Single-Family 219.795 10.6%     19.9% -6.8%
RESIDENTIAL   291.460 -2.1%     -9.5% -12.8%
NONRESIDENTIAL 386.553 -27.3%     -46.0% -30.9%
GRAND TOTAL   678.013 -18.3%     -31.9% -22.7%

Table 6 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks nonresidential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial, and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers. Table 7 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect Insight.

Source: ConstructConnect.
Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 8: VALUE OF UNITED STATES NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS – DECEMBER 2020 – CONSTRUCTCONNECT
Billions of current $s, not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

  Latest month actuals  Moving averages (placed in end month) Year to Date. 
        3-months 12-months JAN-dec JAN-dec
  oct 20 nov 20 dec 20 oct 20 nov 20 dec 20 oct 20 nov 20 dec 20 2019 2020
                       
Single Family 23.021 20.025 18.670 21.641 21.465 20.572 17.661 18.058 18.316 198.781 219.795
   month-over-month % change 7.8% -13.0% -6.8% 3.9% -0.8% -4.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.4%    
   year-over-year % change 33.9% 31.1% 19.9% 24.2% 29.4% 28.5% 9.3% 10.8% 10.6% -1.8% 10.6%
Apartment 6.376 5.134 3.274 5.880 5.619 4.928 6.772 6.422 5.972 99.042 71.666
   month-over-month % change 19.2% -19.5% -36.2% -0.4% -4.4% -12.3% -5.7% -5.2% -7.0%    
   year-over-year % change -43.4% -45.0% -62.2% -42.1% -44.3% -49.5% -16.0% -21.8% -27.6% 5.1% -27.6%
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 29.397 25.159 21.944 27.521 27.084 25.500 24.433 24.479 24.288 297.823 291.460
   month-over-month % change 10.1% -14.4% -12.8% 3.0% -1.6% -5.8% 0.3% 0.2% -0.8%    
   year-over-year % change 3.3% 2.3% -9.5% -0.2% 1.5% -1.0% 0.9% -0.1% -2.1% 0.4% -2.1%
Hotel/Motel 0.552 1.038 0.200 0.539 0.670 0.597 1.150 1.001 0.847 23.537 10.160
   month-over-month % change 31.4% 88.0% -80.8% -12.6% 24.4% -11.0% -10.9% -13.0% -15.4%    
   year-over-year % change -75.3% -63.4% -90.2% -70.5% -70.7% -74.8% -38.0% -48.3% -56.8% -10.3% -56.8%
Retail 0.999 0.745 0.513 1.028 0.907 0.752 1.045 1.002 0.967 16.510 11.605
   month-over-month % change 2.2% -25.4% -31.2% 0.8% -11.7% -17.1% 0.8% -4.1% -3.5%    
   year-over-year % change 10.9% -40.6% -45.3% -15.2% -22.9% -27.0% -24.8% -27.8% -29.7% -9.8% -29.7%
Parking Garages 0.110 0.103 0.079 0.144 0.117 0.097 0.167 0.152 0.148 3.164 1.777
   month-over-month % change -20.3% -6.0% -23.3% 0.8% -18.7% -16.7% -7.4% -8.8% -2.5%    
   year-over-year % change -59.2% -63.0% -36.9% -26.9% -45.4% -56.6% -43.2% -46.0% -43.8% 10.4% -43.8%
Amusement 0.701 0.319 0.266 0.509 0.496 0.429 0.538 0.529 0.497 7.596 5.966
   month-over-month % change 49.8% -54.5% -16.5% 26.7% -2.5% -13.6% -2.1% -1.8% -5.9%    
   year-over-year % change -16.5% -26.4% -58.6% -18.5% -17.8% -32.9% -19.3% -16.4% -21.5% -11.2% -21.5%
Office 1.373 3.434 1.203 1.671 2.031 2.003 2.142 1.988 1.924 36.585 23.086
   month-over-month % change 6.8% 150.1% -65.0% 3.4% 21.6% -1.4% -8.0% -7.2% -3.2%    
   year-over-year % change -62.0% -35.1% -38.9% -46.7% -49.8% -44.7% -23.3% -36.1% -36.9% 22.4% -36.9%
Governmental Offices 0.724 0.757 0.779 1.137 1.073 0.754 0.936 0.908 0.910 11.749 10.917
   month-over-month % change -58.4% 4.6% 2.9% -7.9% -5.6% -29.8% -3.2% -3.0% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change -33.9% -30.8% 2.6% 6.5% 3.2% -23.4% -5.4% -6.4% -7.1% 6.7% -7.1%
Laboratories 0.175 0.113 0.218 0.176 0.173 0.169 0.192 0.186 0.179 2.417 2.143
   month-over-month % change -24.4% -35.2% 92.4% -0.4% -1.6% -2.6% 3.5% -3.0% -4.0%    
   year-over-year % change 79.9% -38.2% -29.3% -35.6% -14.1% -14.0% 1.5% -5.2% -11.3% -16.9% -11.3%
Warehouse 1.781 1.868 0.681 1.779 1.699 1.443 2.041 2.025 1.904 22.563 22.853
   month-over-month % change 23.1% 4.9% -63.6% 6.9% -4.5% -15.0% 1.3% -0.8% -5.9%    
   year-over-year % change 21.8% -9.3% -68.0% -8.3% -3.0% -23.3% 15.3% 14.2% 1.3% 3.8% 1.3%
Misc Commercial 0.235 0.385 0.165 0.514 0.411 0.262 0.716 0.616 0.557 20.581 6.684
   month-over-month % change -61.8% 64.0% -57.0% -31.8% -19.9% -36.4% -9.0% -14.0% -9.6%    
   year-over-year % change -78.3% -75.7% -81.0% -70.4% -78.7% -77.8% -55.5% -63.5% -67.5% 67.6% -67.5%
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 6.650 8.764 4.105 7.495 7.578 6.506 8.927 8.406 7.933 144.703 95.191
   month-over-month % change -9.2% 31.8% -53.2% -1.7% 1.1% -14.1% -4.4% -5.8% -5.6%    
   year-over-year % change -42.6% -41.6% -58.1% -37.6% -42.8% -46.4% -22.7% -29.8% -34.2% 8.1% -34.2%
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL  (Manufacturing) 2.394 0.578 0.128 2.429 1.546 1.033 1.803 1.612 1.487 55.810 17.848
   month-over-month % change 43.6% -75.9% -77.8% 22.1% -36.4% -33.2% -2.4% -10.6% -7.7%    
   year-over-year % change -18.0% -79.8% -92.1% -55.2% -31.0% -58.2% -61.4% -66.5% -68.0% 55.9% -68.0%
Religious 0.125 0.069 0.138 0.114 0.102 0.111 0.132 0.119 0.121 1.889 1.454
   month-over-month % change 9.9% -44.4% 99.0% 10.8% -9.8% 8.0% 1.7% -9.5% 1.8%    
   year-over-year % change 27.7% -68.4% 22.9% -14.8% -33.2% -22.6% -20.2% -28.9% -23.0% -13.8% -23.0%
Hosptials/Clinics 1.162 1.636 0.504 0.871 1.190 1.101 1.260 1.183 1.042 21.790 12.505
   month-over-month % change 50.7% 40.7% -69.2% 2.2% 36.6% -7.5% -7.6% -6.1% -11.9%    
   year-over-year % change -51.8% -36.1% -77.0% -58.9% -45.8% -53.9% -25.7% -36.3% -42.6% 29.0% -42.6%
Nursing/Assisted Living 0.642 0.534 0.388 0.651 0.599 0.521 0.602 0.586 0.581 9.599 6.969
   month-over-month % change 3.6% -16.9% -27.3% 19.3% -8.1% -12.9% -3.7% -2.5% -1.0%    
   year-over-year % change -30.3% -25.3% -14.9% -17.5% -33.2% -25.2% -29.1% -30.5% -27.4% -9.6% -27.4%
Libraries/Museums 0.150 0.145 0.108 0.182 0.151 0.134 0.328 0.313 0.305 4.072 3.660
   month-over-month % change -5.0% -3.4% -25.6% -11.4% -17.3% -11.1% -9.6% -4.4% -2.7%    
   year-over-year % change -73.6% -54.7% -48.4% -54.0% -67.6% -63.3% 0.9% -6.6% -10.1% 48.2% -10.1%
Police/Courthouse/Prison 0.626 1.061 0.859 0.755 0.773 0.849 0.617 0.656 0.685 6.940 8.224
   month-over-month % change -0.6% 69.5% -19.1% 1.3% 2.4% 9.9% -1.7% 6.3% 4.5%    
   year-over-year % change -16.9% 79.1% 69.1% -4.3% -1.3% 37.3% 1.7% 10.3% 18.5% -14.5% 18.5%
Military 0.985 1.118 0.404 0.819 1.020 0.836 0.710 0.748 0.763 5.049 9.154
   month-over-month % change 3.0% 13.5% -63.9% 19.0% 24.5% -18.1% 0.0% 5.4% 1.9%    
   year-over-year % change -0.4% 69.9% 76.0% 19.3% 28.1% 33.6% 62.4% 71.3% 81.3% -3.5% 81.3%
Schools/Colleges 3.993 4.123 2.936 4.369 4.021 3.684 5.703 5.677 5.477 75.879 65.719
   month-over-month % change 1.2% 3.3% -28.8% -14.8% -8.0% -8.4% -1.0% -0.5% -3.5%    
   year-over-year % change -15.2% -7.2% -45.0% -13.1% -11.9% -23.7% -9.1% -9.8% -13.4% 6.1% -13.4%
Misc Government 0.491 0.596 0.702 0.492 0.528 0.596 0.602 0.614 0.604 9.342 7.252
   month-over-month % change -1.3% 21.4% 17.9% -0.4% 7.3% 12.9% -5.6% 2.0% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change -46.8% 31.8% -14.4% -39.8% -23.8% -18.5% -24.7% -20.1% -22.4% -16.9% -22.4%
TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 8.173 9.282 6.039 8.253 8.382 7.831 9.954 9.897 9.578 134.560 114.937
   month-over-month % change 6.3% 13.6% -34.9% -5.8% 1.6% -6.6% -2.6% -0.6% -3.2%    
   year-over-year % change -28.1% -6.8% -38.8% -23.3% -20.5% -24.7% -10.7% -12.4% -14.6% 4.7% -14.6%
Misc Non Residential 0.513 0.454 0.348 0.478 0.472 0.438 0.498 0.462 0.454 7.667 5.445
   month-over-month % change 13.9% -11.4% -23.5% 11.1% -1.1% -7.2% -8.4% -7.3% -1.8%    
   year-over-year % change -51.7% -48.9% -22.1% -36.7% -44.4% -45.2% -17.7% -27.2% -29.0% 6.4% -29.0%
TOTAL NONRES BUILDING 17.731 19.078 10.619 18.654 17.979 15.809 21.182 20.377 19.452 342.740 233.420
   month-over-month % change 3.5% 7.6% -44.3% -0.8% -3.6% -12.1% -3.5% -3.8% -4.5%    
   year-over-year % change -34.2% -33.6% -51.1% -35.5% -33.1% -38.7% -24.3% -29.0% -31.9% 12.2% -31.9%
Airports 0.445 0.655 0.171 0.630 0.608 0.423 0.503 0.529 0.507 7.393 6.083
   month-over-month % change -38.6% 47.4% -74.0% -11.6% -3.6% -30.3% -7.9% 5.1% -4.2%    
   year-over-year % change -53.9% 89.3% -61.0% -15.6% -4.2% -27.3% -17.8% -13.1% -17.7% 1.7% -17.7%
Roads/Highways 4.995 5.269 3.330 4.745 4.764 4.531 5.269 5.379 5.290 65.315 63.486
   month-over-month % change 24.0% 5.5% -36.8% -6.3% 0.4% -4.9% 0.0% 2.1% -1.6%    
   year-over-year % change 0.5% 33.5% -24.1% -7.4% 3.4% 2.2% -2.1% 0.3% -2.8% 3.3% -2.8%
Bridges 1.081 1.056 2.585 1.048 1.024 1.574 1.865 1.794 1.873 30.186 22.477
   month-over-month % change 15.8% -2.4% 144.9% -25.4% -2.3% 53.8% -5.2% -3.8% 4.4%    
   year-over-year % change -53.1% -44.7% 58.6% -56.0% -56.1% -19.2% -25.7% -29.0% -25.5% 25.6% -25.5%
Dams/Marine 1.080 0.845 0.412 0.757 0.772 0.779 0.702 0.684 0.685 8.547 8.221
   month-over-month % change 177.1% -21.7% -51.3% 31.1% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% -2.6% 0.2%    
   year-over-year % change 5.2% -20.6% 3.3% 12.6% -12.1% -6.1% 3.3% -5.0% -3.8% 28.6% -3.8%
Water/Sewage 2.300 1.863 2.452 2.711 2.443 2.205 2.718 2.663 2.603 31.617 31.235
   month-over-month % change -27.4% -19.0% 31.6% -6.7% -9.9% -9.8% -0.5% -2.0% -2.3%    
   year-over-year % change -6.7% -26.2% -22.7% 12.9% -4.0% -19.0% 8.2% 4.7% -1.2% 6.7% -1.2%
Misc Civil 0.897 1.401 1.274 1.252 1.005 1.191 2.321 2.266 1.802 46.189 21.630
   month-over-month % change 25.1% 56.1% -9.1% -30.3% -19.7% 18.5% -14.4% -2.4% -20.4%    
   year-over-year % change -84.0% -32.3% -81.3% -80.7% -74.5% -75.4% -33.0% -32.4% -53.2% 43.7% -53.2%
TOTAL ENGINEERING 10.799 11.089 10.223 11.143 10.616 10.704 13.378 13.314 12.761 189.247 153.132
   month-over-month % change 8.4% 2.7% -7.8% -10.6% -4.7% 0.8% -3.9% -0.5% -4.2%    
   year-over-year % change -37.7% -6.5% -39.4% -37.4% -28.9% -30.3% -11.7% -11.9% -19.1% 16.1% -19.1%
GRAND TOTAL 57.926 55.326 42.787 57.318 55.679 52.013 58.993 58.171 56.501 829.810 678.013
   month-over-month % change 7.7% -4.5% -22.7% -1.2% -2.9% -6.6% -2.0% -1.4% -2.9%    
   year-over-year % change -20.4% -15.1% -31.9% -22.9% -18.7% -22.3% -12.4% -14.9% -18.3% 8.5% -18.3%
NONRES BLDG + ENGINEERING 28.529 30.167 20.842 29.797 28.595 26.513 34.560 33.691 32.213 531.987 386.553
   month-over-month % change 5.3% 5.7% -30.9% -4.7% -4.0% -7.3% -3.7% -2.5% -4.4%    
   year-over-year % change -35.6% -25.7% -46.0% -36.3% -31.6% -35.6% -19.9% -23.1% -27.3% 13.6% -27.3%

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.

TABLE 9: U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE REGIONAL STARTS,
NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION* — CONSTRUCTCONNECT

  JAN-DEC 2019   JAN-DEC 2020   % Change
           
Connecticut $5,200,613,970   $3,671,994,702   -29.4%
Maine $1,868,540,564   $1,529,317,608   -18.2%
Massachusetts $13,576,238,143   $9,037,511,141   -33.4%
New Hampshire $1,512,047,865   $1,003,193,410   -33.7%
Rhode Island $899,905,589   $711,119,258   -21.0%
Vermont $394,372,903   $533,694,005   35.3%
Total New England $23,451,719,034   $16,486,830,124   -29.7%
New Jersey $9,107,295,823   $7,578,541,854   -16.8%
New York $28,871,883,235   $19,234,666,679   -33.4%
Pennsylvania $15,588,746,259   $10,875,819,981   -30.2%
Total Middle Atlantic $53,567,925,317   $37,689,028,514   -29.6%
TOTAL NORTHEAST $77,019,644,351   $54,175,858,638   -29.7%
Illinois $17,165,421,355   $15,246,810,879   -11.2%
Indiana $8,875,089,276   $7,951,894,615   -10.4%
Michigan $13,096,643,463   $7,373,720,967   -43.7%
Ohio $15,170,542,008   $13,548,895,243   -10.7%
Wisconsin $10,965,487,599   $8,448,065,622   -23.0%
Total East North Central $65,273,183,701   $52,569,387,326   -19.5%
Iowa $5,939,749,623   $4,966,092,076   -16.4%
Kansas $4,783,899,184   $5,049,562,271   5.6%
Minnesota $10,947,586,036   $8,559,920,212   -21.8%
Missouri $8,084,731,603   $9,099,611,172   12.6%
Nebraska $3,657,346,162   $4,402,833,279   20.4%
North Dakota $2,676,576,130   $2,389,254,991   -10.7%
South Dakota $2,784,047,764   $1,344,697,936   -51.7%
Total West North Central $38,873,936,502   $35,811,971,937   -7.9%
TOTAL MIDWEST $104,147,120,203   $88,381,359,263   -15.1%
Delaware $1,121,554,889   $1,311,208,183   16.9%
District of Columbia $2,109,312,778   $880,571,934   -58.3%
Florida $33,301,258,382   $23,605,330,326   -29.1%
Georgia $18,886,624,083   $10,907,774,599   -42.2%
Maryland $7,173,260,375   $6,829,408,530   -4.8%
North Carolina $17,727,934,563   $10,006,070,459   -43.6%
South Carolina $7,282,135,251   $5,236,694,633   -28.1%
Virginia $14,912,459,108   $10,604,371,923   -28.9%
West Virginia $1,849,963,165   $2,432,595,894   31.5%
Total South Atlantic $104,364,502,594   $71,814,026,481   -31.2%
Alabama $8,167,284,371   $5,187,550,566   -36.5%
Kentucky $6,786,289,146   $5,321,337,248   -21.6%
Mississippi $2,716,659,530   $2,763,041,582   1.7%
Tennessee $8,737,345,332   $7,916,084,769   -9.4%
Total East South Central $26,407,578,379   $21,188,014,165   -19.8%
Arkansas $3,654,382,903   $4,226,111,936   15.6%
Louisiana $8,517,297,471   $4,571,855,191   -46.3%
Oklahoma $5,464,676,888   $4,221,156,643   -22.8%
Texas $87,309,332,003   $48,606,249,018   -44.3%
Total West South Central $104,945,689,265   $61,625,372,788   -41.3%
TOTAL SOUTH $235,717,770,238   $154,627,413,434   -34.4%
Arizona $9,858,533,484   $7,601,065,321   -22.9%
Colorado $11,339,489,727   $6,705,296,699   -40.9%
Idaho $2,166,361,572   $1,472,293,404   -32.0%
Montana $2,022,492,348   $1,568,190,805   -22.5%
Nevada $6,462,310,653   $3,415,053,770   -47.2%
New Mexico $2,828,871,899   $2,364,315,163   -16.4%
Utah $5,539,993,453   $6,482,161,945   17.0%
Wyoming $5,340,726,315   $985,400,464   -81.5%
Total Mountain $45,558,779,451   $30,593,777,571   -32.8%
Alaska $1,069,937,686   $1,476,348,841   38.0%
California $41,447,921,452   $38,393,082,049   -7.4%
Hawaii $2,137,648,369   $1,999,812,380   -6.4%
Oregon $6,077,916,927   $4,357,987,985   -28.3%
Washington $18,810,222,827   $12,546,870,175   -33.3%
Total Pacific $69,543,647,261   $58,774,101,430   -15.5%
TOTAL WEST $115,102,426,712   $89,367,879,001   -22.4%
TOTAL U.S. $531,986,961,504   $386,552,510,336   -27.3%

*Figures above are comprised of nonres building and engineering (i.e., residential is omitted).

Data Source and Table: ConstructConnect.


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About Alex Carrick

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985.

     
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