Putting the Project Stress Index in Perspective

The Project Stress Index (PSI) took center stage during last week’s AIA2025 Conference on Architecture and Design in Boston, reflecting heightened industry attention to shifting market dynamics.

One topic of my presentation was the latest PSI data, which sparked considerable discussion, particularly around the sharp increase in abandoned private sector projects since February 2025.

Private sector abandonments were up 50% from the end of March, just before the White House announced Liberation Day.

Although the graphic below clearly shows the immediate reaction to recent trade policy volatility, this is not, at least as of yet, a warning that the “sky is falling.”

Divergence between public and private project abandonments has become pronounced since February 2025. Image: ConstructConnect

Abandonments have historically accounted for around 2% of all nonresidential pre-construction projects, with the private sector making up slightly more than half of all recorded abandonments.

The rough math thus suggests that the recent 50% increase in private abandonments has caused total estimated abandonments to rise from 2% to slightly above 2.5%.

In short, while abandonments have worsened in recent months, it is essential to remember that abandonments account for a very small percentage of all projects. Thus, even a significant percentage increase from a small base typically has a limited impact.