By: Michael Guckes, Senior Economist on October 16th, 2023
ConstructConnect's Project Stress Index - October 16
COMPOSITE OVERVIEW: The project stress index composite represents an equal-weight measure of the seasonally adjusted level of pre-construction projects that have experienced a delayed bid date, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned in the last 30-days. For the week ending October 15th, 2023, the Index registered 118.3, signaling a stress level approximately 18% above the average 2021 weekly reading. The Index decreased by 0.5% week over week resulting primarily from a decline in the level of bid date delayed projects. This movement overshadowed minor changes in the level of on hold and abandoned project levels. The latest result ends a two-month long trend of sequentially higher stress readings in which abandoned and on hold projects grew rapidly. Additional weeks of measurements will determine if this week’s pause in rising stress readings represents a temporary pause in a broader run-up, a plateau, or the beginning of a decline in construction stress.
|Delay Bid Date||On Hold||Abandoned|
Sector Status Update: Public and private sector project stress results can trend independently of one another in large part due to their different funding mechanisms. There have been several notable trends in project stress by sector. Among public projects, the last four weeks of declining bid date delayed levels have been more than offset by a steady increase in the number of projects placed on hold since June. Most concerning of all is the on-going, multi-month rising trend in the number of public and private sector abandoned projects. Excluding a brief run-up in early 2023, current seasonally adjusted abandoned projects readings are at their highest since 2020.
About the Project Stress Index
The Project Stress Index (PSI) monitors the level of U.S. construction projects, excluding single family residential, that have experienced a bid date delay, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned over the last 30 days. Each component has been indexed against the average of their weekly values recorded during 2021. The independent tracking of each status type gives unique insights into the timing, direction, and amplitude of market changes.
Additional information about the PSI, including detailed data about the individual readings for delayed, on hold, and abandoned projects can be found here.
About Michael Guckes, Senior Economist
Michael Guckes is Senior Economist for ConstructConnect. He is an international speaker on the North American construction market. Michael has over a decade of economics-related experience in the construction and manufacturing industries.