By: Michael Guckes, Senior Economist on October 9th, 2023
ConstructConnect's Project Stress Index - October 9
COMPOSITE OVERVIEW: The project stress index composite represents an equal-weight measure of the seasonally adjusted level of pre-construction projects that have experienced a delayed bid date, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned in the last 30-days. Compared to the average level of project stress in 2021, today’s stress level is almost 19% higher. The week’s composite result increased by 0.5% from a week ago due to a 5% increase in projects placed on hold. This increase overshadowed small declines in delayed and abandoned project levels. The composite’s current reading is its highest since late April 2023. The latest absolute count of abandoned projects marked the series’ third highest reading since 2020. After seasonal adjustment though the figure was less concerning as it is customary for abandoned counts to temporarily surge during the second half of the calendar year.
|Delay Bid Date||On Hold||Abandoned|
Sector Status Update: As reported previously, private sector abandoned project activity has been steadily increasing since mid-year. Private sector results continue to form the majority of abandoned project observations. However, in recent weeks public sector levels have quickly moved higher, disrupting the series’ generally flat trend of the last 6-months. The latest abandoned public project reading marks a calendar year high and represents a 50% increase over mid-year readings. On hold activity remains muted in the private sector while it continues to trend slowly higher in the public sector. Lastly, recent weeks of delayed bid activity in both sectors has fallen slightly. It should be noted that the latest private delayed bid reading was comparable to the seasonally low levels observed in January.
About the Project Stress Index
The Project Stress Index (PSI) monitors the level of U.S. construction projects, excluding single family residential, that have experienced a bid date delay, have been placed on hold, or have been abandoned over the last 30 days. Each component has been indexed against the average of their weekly values recorded during 2021. The independent tracking of each status type gives unique insights into the timing, direction, and amplitude of market changes.
Additional information about the PSI, including detailed data about the individual readings for delayed, on hold, and abandoned projects can be found here.
About Michael Guckes, Senior Economist
Michael Guckes is Senior Economist for ConstructConnect. He is an international speaker on the North American construction market. Michael has over a decade of economics-related experience in the construction and manufacturing industries.