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Construction Economic NewsU.S. Economy Stumbling Blocks A year and a half into the coronavirus health crisis, the economies of the United States and Canada have been running into some stumbling blocks. In the United States, GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of this year, at +6.3% and +6.5% respectively (quarter to quarter annualized), was looking pretty good, and not far out of line with the +7.0% forecast figure for the full year adopted by many analysts. But the third quarter has not been looking as sparky.
Canada’s foreign trade picture brightened considerably in June. The nation’s merchandise trade balance recorded its biggest surplus since before the 2008-2009 recession. Furthermore, there have now been four surpluses in the past six months. During the decade prior to this year, Canada’s monthly goods trade balance spent a lot of time below the zero x-axis (Graph 1). (‘Merchandise’ trade is a fancier way of saying ‘goods’ as opposed to ‘services’ trade.)
Top of mind for economic analysts these days is the question of how rapidly prices (or costs, from a different perspective) are moving, and in what direction. The construction sector, mainly on the residential side, has been plagued much of this year by extraordinarily large climbs in prices for forestry products. July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) results from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show an abatement in this problem. Softwood lumber’s July PPI was -29.0% month to month and -16.3% over the latest three months. Nevertheless, it was ahead by a mighty +45.0% year over year; but in May, it had been +154% y/y.